This paper studies the transition from school to full-time employment and subsequent labor mobility during the first five postschooling years for several recent cohorts of black and white male "terminal" high school graduates using unique data from the 1979 youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience. A constrained optimization model of labor force dynamics is implemented empirically integrating features of models previously described in the literature. The estimates of the model provide quantitative evidence on underlying structural differences in labor market constraints faced by blacks and whites. For example, while blacks have overall a substantially smaller wage return to work experience and face a less disperse wage offer distribution, blacks face a higher probability of receiving job offers.

This paper studies the transition from school to full-time employment and subsequent labor mobility during the first five postschooling years for several recent cohorts of black and white male "terminal" high school graduates using unique data from the 1979 youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience. A constrained optimization model of labor force dynamics is implemented empirically integrating features of models previously described in the literature. The estimates of the model provide quantitative evidence on underlying structural differences in labor market constraints faced by blacks and whites. For example, while blacks have overall a substantially smaller wage return to work experience and face a less disperse wage offer distribution, blacks face a higher probability of receiving job offers.

This paper develops a finite-horizon dynamic stochastic model of discrete choice with respect to life-cycle fertility within an environment where infant survival is uncertain. The model yields implications for the number, timing, and spacing of children. A tractable estimation method is developed for the linear constraint-quadratic utility case that is intimately tied to the dynamic optimization problem, and the method is applied to Malaysian household data. Estimation is based on integrating the numerical solution of the dynamic programming model of behavior with a maximum likelihood procedure.

This paper develops a finite-horizon dynamic stochastic model of discrete choice with respect to life-cycle fertility within an environment where infant survival is uncertain. The model yields implications for the number, timing, and spacing of children. A tractable estimation method is developed for the linear constraint-quadratic utility case that is intimately tied to the dynamic optimization problem, and the method is applied to Malaysian household data. Estimation is based on integrating the numerical solution of the dynamic programming model of behavior with a maximum likelihood procedure.

Crime of almost every variety has increased enormously over the past 80 years in England, at the same time that the risk of capture and severity of punishment have declined. This paper presents an attempt to understand these profiles and their interrelationship. Comparisons with the United States are also stressed. In performing this analysis, methodologies were developed and implemented to isolate the deterrent component from the incapacitation component of punishment. One-half of the total effect of imprisonment is ascribed to deterrence. In addition, the most recent experience of rising criminal activity is shown to be, in no small way, a manifestation of the movements in deterrent variables.

Crime of almost every variety has increased enormously over the past 80 years in England, at the same time that the risk of capture and severity of punishment have declined. This paper presents an attempt to understand these profiles and their interrelationship. Comparisons with the United States are also stressed. In performing this analysis, methodologies were developed and implemented to isolate the deterrent component from the incapacitation component of punishment. One-half of the total effect of imprisonment is ascribed to deterrence. In addition, the most recent experience of rising criminal activity is shown to be, in no small way, a manifestation of the movements in deterrent variables.

This paper estimates a model of the effort decisions of students and teachers in a classroom setting to understand the performance of Mexican high school students on curriculum-based examinations. The model allows for student heterogeneity in initial mathematics preparation and knowledge preference and for teacher heterogeneity in instructional ability and preferences for student knowledge. Survey data include multiple measurements of student and teacher effort, student and teacher preferences, student initial knowledge, and teacher ability. The most important factor accounting for poor performance, the lack of sufficient prior preparation, suggests a mismatch between the curriculum content and entering grade-level mathematics knowledge.

In this paper we formulate and estimate a finite-horizon, structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low-income agricultural environments: income uncertainty, constraints on borrowing and rental markets, and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption. The model is fit to longitudinal Indian household data on farm profits, bullock stocks, and pump sets. The estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks, agricultural profits, and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second-best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance.

Although estimates of the fertility-labor supply relationship abound, a full appreciation of the interpretation of such estimates has been lacking, regardless of the empirical strategy employed. This paper attempts to elucidate, within the context of a life-cycle decision-making process, the information contained in the estimated association between fertility and labor supply as calculated from "single" and "simultaneous-equations" estimation techniques. We also present a statistical methodology based upon the occurrence of twins in the first pregnancy and provide estimates, using that methodology, of the extent to which women's life-cycle labor supply decisions respond to exogenous (and, in this case, unanticipated) extra children.

This paper provides structural estimates of a dynamic model of schooling, work, and occupational choice decisions based on eleven years of observations on a sample of young men from the 1979 youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience (NLSY). The authors find that a suitably extended human capital investment model can in fact do an excellent job of fitting observed data on school attendance, work, occupational choices, and wages in the NLSY data on young men and also produces reasonable forecasts of future work decisions and wage patterns.