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The Measurement of Permanent Income and Its Application to Savings Behavior

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(4), 722-744
A unique feature of this study is its use of panel data to construct two measures of permanent income: An earnings function with unobserved individual differences suggests one measure, while a weighted average of past incomes yields another. These measures reject the accepted theories of savings behavior and suggest a nonlinear relationship between savings and permanent income. A new function incorporating this nonlinearity is successfully applied to the data for Indian farm households. The occurrence of this nonlinearity suggests that income redistribution policies in the less developed countries are likely to result in a reduced supply of household savings.

Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(6), 1203-1225
Demand and reserve uncertainty are included in a simple model of an exhaustible resource market by allowing the demand function and the reserve level to fluctuate via continuous-time stochastic processes. Thus, producers always know current demand and reserves but do not know what demand and reserves will be in the future. I show that demand uncertainty has no effect on the expected dynamics of market price, while reserve uncertainty shifts the expected rate of change of price only if extraction costs are nonlinear in reserves. However, if the demand function is nonlinear, both demand, and reserve uncertainty affect the dynamics of production, whatever the character of extraction costs. The model is also extended to include exploration, first as a means of reducing uncertainty and second as a means of accumulating reserves, with uncertainty over the future response of discoveries to exploratory effort.

Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(6), 1203-1225
Demand and reserve uncertainty are included in a simple model of an exhaustible resource market by allowing the demand function and the reserve level to fluctuate via continuous-time stochastic processes. Thus, producers always know current demand and reserves but do not know what demand and reserves will be in the future. I show that demand uncertainty has no effect on the expected dynamics of market price, while reserve uncertainty shifts the expected rate of change of price only if extraction costs are nonlinear in reserves. However, if the demand function is nonlinear, both demand, and reserve uncertainty affect the dynamics of production, whatever the character of extraction costs. The model is also extended to include exploration, first as a means of reducing uncertainty and second as a means of accumulating reserves, with uncertainty over the future response of discoveries to exploratory effort.

The Measurement of Permanent Income and Its Application to Savings Behavior

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(4), 722-744
A unique feature of this study is its use of panel data to construct two measures of permanent income: An earnings function with unobserved individual differences suggests one measure, while a weighted average of past incomes yields another. These measures reject the accepted theories of savings behavior and suggest a nonlinear relationship between savings and permanent income. A new function incorporating this nonlinearity is successfully applied to the data for Indian farm households. The occurrence of this nonlinearity suggests that income redistribution policies in the less developed countries are likely to result in a reduced supply of household savings.

Personal Taxation, Portfolio Choice, and the Effect of the Corporation Income Tax

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(5), 854-866
Extending the traditional treatment of the corporate tax to an economy with a progressive personal tax fundamentally changes the analysis. While the corporate tax system (CTS) does increase the total tax rate on corporate source income for some investors, the exclusion of retained earnings implies that the CTS lowers the tax rate for high-income investors. Analyzing such an economy requires replacing the traditional "equal-yield" equilibrium condition with a more general portfolio balance model. In this model, introducing a CTS can actually increase the corporate share of the capital stock even though the relative tax rate on corporate income rises.

Personal Taxation, Portfolio Choice, and the Effect of the Corporation Income Tax

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(5), 854-866
Extending the traditional treatment of the corporate tax to an economy with a progressive personal tax fundamentally changes the analysis. While the corporate tax system (CTS) does increase the total tax rate on corporate source income for some investors, the exclusion of retained earnings implies that the CTS lowers the tax rate for high-income investors. Analyzing such an economy requires replacing the traditional "equal-yield" equilibrium condition with a more general portfolio balance model. In this model, introducing a CTS can actually increase the corporate share of the capital stock even though the relative tax rate on corporate income rises.

Human and Nonhuman Wealth in Demand-for-Money Functions

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(1), 186-193
[Using Kendrick's recently published data on human and nonhuman wealth in the United States, log-linear money demand functions of the "partial adjustment" variety are estimated by introducing in each nonhuman, total, or human wealth as the scale or the "constraint" variable. It is found that the long-run elasticity of money demand with respect to nonhuman wealth is somewhat larger than that with respect to total wealth, and the elasticity with respect to human wealth is the lowest. Such a structure in the elasticities is observed consistently, although differences between the elasticities are not large and perhaps not statistically significant.]

Federal Taxes and Homeownership: Evidence from Time Series

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(1), 59-75
This paper analyzes U.S. time-series data in order to study the determinants of the choice between renting and homeownership. Special attention is focused upon changes in the relative prices of owning and renting induced by provisions of the federal personal income tax. The results suggest that about one-quarter of the growth in the proportion of homeowners in the post-World War II period is a consequence of the tax system's favorable treatment of owner-occupied housing.