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The Accident Externality from Driving

Journal of Political Economy 2006 114(5), 931-955
We estimate auto accident externalities (more specifically insurance externalities) using panel data on state‐average insurance premiums and loss costs. Externalities appear to be substantial in traffic‐dense states: in California, for example, we find that the increase in traffic density from a typical additional driver increases total statewide insurance costs of other drivers by 1,725–3,239 per year, depending on the model. High–traffic density states have large economically and statistically significant externalities in all specifications we check. In contrast, the accident externality per driver in low‐traffic states appears quite small. On balance, accident externalities are so large that a correcting Pigouvian tax could raise $66 billion annually in California alone, more than all existing California state taxes during our study period, and over $220 billion per year nationally.

The Productivity Effects of Privatization: Longitudinal Estimates from Hungary, Romania, Russia, and Ukraine

Journal of Political Economy 2006 114(1), 61-99
This paper estimates the effect of privatization on multifactor productivity using comprehensive panel data on initially state‐owned manufacturing firms in four economies. We exploit the data’s longitudinal dimension to control for preprivatization selection and estimate long‐run impacts. The estimates are robust to functional form but sensitive to selection controls. Our preferred random growth estimates imply positive multifactor productivity effects of 15 percent in Romania, 8 percent in Hungary, and 2 percent in Ukraine, but a −3 percent effect in Russia. The foreign privatization effect is larger (18–35 percent) in all countries. Positive domestic effects appear immediately in Hungary, Romania, and Ukraine and continue growing thereafter, but emerge only five years after privatization in Russia.

The Market for Illegal Goods: The Case of Drugs

Journal of Political Economy 2006 114(1), 38-60 open access
This paper considers the costs of reducing consumption of a good by making its production illegal and punishing apprehended illegal producers. We use illegal drugs as a prominent example. We show that the more inelastic either demand for or supply of a good is, the greater the increase in social cost from further reducing its production by greater enforcement efforts. So optimal public expenditures on apprehension and conviction of illegal suppliers depend not only on the difference between the social and private values from consumption but also on these elasticities. When demand and supply are not too elastic, it does not pay to enforce any prohibition unless the social value is negative. We also show that a monetary tax could cause a greater reduction in output and increase in price than optimal enforcement against the same good would if it were illegal, even though some producers may go underground to avoid a monetary tax. When enforcement is costly, excise taxes and quantity restrictions are not equivalent.