In this paper we discuss the relevancy of the geometric mean as a portfolio selection criteria. A procedure for finding that portfolio with the highest geometric mean when returns on portfolios are lognormally distributed is presented. The development of this algorithm involves a proof that the portfolio with maximum geometric mean lies on the efficient frontier in arithmetic mean variance space. This finding has major implications for the relevancy of much of portfolio and general equilibrium theory. These implications are explored.
Approximately two hundred books on mathematical programming have been published during the past eight years. Most workers in this field have immediate access to only a minor fraction of these, but would have at least vicarious access to many of the rest through book reviews if only they knew where to look. That is the primary motivation for this bibliography of book reviews published during the years 1965–1972. A secondary reason is simply to furnish a reasonably comprehensive list of recent books on mathematical programming.
We want to build n components so as to form an n component system which will function if at least k of the components function. If x dollars are invested in building a component, then this component will function with probability P(x). Given a total income of A dollars, the problem of interest is to determine how much money we should invest in each component so as to maximize the probability of attaining a functioning system. This problem is considered both in the sequential and in the nonsequential cases. Conditions under which it is optimal to allocate A/n units at each stage, when A is your initial fortune, are presented. The special case P(x) = min(x, 1) is also considered in detail.
Under the assumption that voters have linear preference orders, this study investigates the propensity of simple weighted scoring rules to yield a winning alternative which is the same as the alternative (if any) which would win using a norm rule such as the simple-majority rule or the Borda rule. The scoring rules examined are of the types implemented by ballot instructions such as “vote for two of the following seven alternatives” and “indicate your first (1), second (2), and third (3) choices from the following list of ten candidates.” The results, which apply only to situations where one of a number of alternatives is to be chosen on the basis of a single ballot, may be useful in designing balloting and scoring procedures for these types of situations.
Corporate planning has been increasingly assisted by advances in the three major areas of economic forecasting: (1) econometric models, (2) time-series analysis, and (3) business cycle indicators. The purpose of this article is to examine the effect of pre-classifying economic observations into more homogeneous groups (“patterns”). It will be shown that the formation of these groups adds further power to our more standard techniques of statistical inference. Early work in pattern recognition began with the development of computer programs for playing chess and checkers. After a brief description of pattern-recognition methodology, a procedure will be presented for pre-classifying economic events into subgroups. Empirical testing and results will be presented, as well as the refinements of this tool for better economic forecasting and planning.
Failures in the implementation of management information systems (“MIS's”) can be attributed in part to a lack of managerial “involvement” and “appreciation.” The concepts of involvement and appreciation are defined, and their measurement in a real-world research setting is presented. The testing of several hypotheses in this setting indicates that managers who involve themselves with the MIS will appreciate the system, and that managers who are uninvolved will be unappreciative.
This paper describes some key defining characteristics of a special class of information systems known as Management Myth-Information Systems (MMIS) or story-telling information systems. MMIS are information systems [Mason, Richard O., Ian I. Mitroff. 1973. A program for research on management information systems. Management Sci. 19 (5, January) 475–487.] which present information to a decision-maker by means of stories. In an MMIS, a scientific datum by itself is not information. In an MMIS, information is information if and only if it is tied to an appropriate story or myth that has meaning to the individual who needs the information, the organization in which he is located, and the type of problem that he faces. This defines the key variables underlying an MMIS. As such, the study of the critical literature dealing with the nature and function of mythology becomes central to the design of MMIS. One of the key purposes of this paper is to suggest how the literature of mythology and the phenomenon of story-telling can be used in the design of MMIS if not for information systems in general. An experiment dealing with some central features of MMIS is described. The experiment involved playing a series of games under the twin conditions of (1) uncertainty and (2) dialectical advice. Experimental subjects were exposed to the advice of two radically opposing “experts of the game” who were designed to present two radically opposing views (“stories”) of the game situation. Finally, a program of research on MMIS is proposed.