Traditional definitions of stochastic dominance assume that the decision agent's preference-or-indifference relation on outcomes of risky decisions is transitive. This paper proposes a stochastic dominance relation for the comparison of risky decisions that is applicable to any complete and reflexive preference-or-indifference relation, or to any asymmetric preference relation. The new dominance relation possesses a number of intuitively desirable properties and is equivalent to the usual stochastic dominance relation when preferences are transitive.

A 21 sector input-output model of the 1972 U.S. economy is extended to include consumer demands, imports, and exports as endogenous variables, and used to analyze some consequences of the price control policy adopted to mitigate the impact of the quadrupling of world crude oil prices in 1973–1974. It is assumed that household consumption of goods is linearly related to prices. An equilibrium of the model economy is then computed by solving a quadratic program. It is shown that the price control policy is equivalent to subsidizing imported oil with revenues from a tax on domestic crude production. Equilibria are computed under this policy and in its absence. The comparison indicates the policy was effective in reducing the price index increase and GNP reduction that would otherwise have occurred, but at the cost of adversely affecting the balance of payments.

In a recent paper in this journal [Vander Weide, J. H., D. W. Peterson, S. F. Maier. 1977. A strategy which maximizes the geometric mean return on portfolio investments. Management Sci. 23(June) 1117–1123.], Vander Weide, Peterson, and Maìer (WPM) incorrectly point out several of the properties of the portfolio strategy which maximizes the geometric mean return (GMR), in which the GMR strategy is equivalent to maximizing the expected logarithm of the total return (including principal). Specifically, they state that GMR portfolios “maximize the probability of exceeding a given wealth level in a fixed amount of time”. This is clearly not true.

Antecedents of collaborative problem solving in R&D teams have received little attention. Furthermore, the relationship between this form of problem solving and R&D team productivity remains unarticulated. This lacuna is addressed in the present study be analyzing the relationships between task and team, properties, collaborative problem solving and team productivity. Multiple regression was used to study the relationships among these variables. Results indicated that team cohesiveness and task certainty were robust predictors of collaborative problem solving and productivity for 45 R&D project groups. It was found that collaborative problem solving did not have a linear relationship with team productivity The collaborative problem solving-productivity relationship was further examined and it was shown that the relationship was sensitive to high and low levels for each of four predictors used in the research design (task certainty, task interdependence, team size, and team cohesiveness). These empirical findings were then translated into implications for R&D managers.

An attempt was made to develop profitable strategies for betting on National Football League games. The research was based on the hypothesis that biases exist in the setting of pointspeads and that these biases can be detected and used for profitable wagering. An analysis of 1969–1974 data suggests that biases of several types do exist and that they are of sufficient magnitude to allow profitable betting strategies despite the normal five percent betting fee.

We are indebted to Jack Muckstadt and Howard Singer for calling our attention to two errors in [Graves, S. C., Schwarz, L. B. 1977. Single cycle continuous review policies for arborescent production/inventory systems. Management Sci. 23 (5, January) 529–540.].

A model for evaluating alternative sediment control policies in agriculture is formulated such that changes in the production of agricultural commodities among and within 105 agricultural production areas can be analyzed. The model combines the elements of spatial economic equilibrium with physical and technical aspects of cropland agriculture. Five alternative sediment control policies as might be formulated by national environment planning agencies are analyzed. The analysis of the alternative policies do not give a definitive solution to sediment water quality problems but rather provide significant information on technical, regional and cost distributions of agricultural production to help decision makers formulate national sediment control policies.

The recent paper [Saipe, A. L. 1977. Production runs for multiple products: the two-product heuristic. Management Sci. 23 (12, August) 1321–1327.] by Saipe considers the single-machine multi-product lot scheduling problem, this problem is concened with the determination of run sizes for a set of products which are produced on the same machine. In the paper [Saipe, A. L. 1977. Production runs for multiple products: the two-product heuristic. Management Sci. 23 (12, August) 1321–1327.], a heuristic solution procedure, based on a solution procedure for the two-product lot scheduling problem, is proposed for the multi-product problem. The intent of this note is to raise three issues concerning the proposed heuristic procedure: (a) the optimality of the procedure for the two-product problem, (b) the performance of the procedure at full capacity for more than two products, and (c) the effectiveness of the procedure relative to alternative solution procedures.

In this paper, we study the use of a recursive discounted least squares model for forecasting daily hospital census. We show, by means of a case study, how one can incorporate, with a minimum amount of cost and effort, institutional and exogenous factors explicitly into the model so as to enhance its forecast accuracy. These factors include holidays, capacity changes, and other events known to affect occupancies. The forecast modification comprises direct adjustments of model parameters, and judicious control of parameter updatings.

Introduction to the special issue devoted to police deployment. By publishing these four refereed papers together in one issue of Management Science, we have the dual purpose of presenting new substantive research results in an important public sector problem area and of attracting other management scientists to the area. The field is still relatively new for OR/MS professionals, and much work remains to be done.