Knowledge that Transforms

The recall and recognition of people for 95 print ads were examined with an aim toward investigating memory structure and decay processes. It was found that recall and recognition do not, by themselves, measure a single underlying memory state. Rather, memory is multidimensional, and recall and recognition capture only a portion of memory, while at the same time reflecting other mental states. When interest in the ads was held constant, however, recall and recognition did measure memory as a unidimensional construct. Further, an examination of memory over three points in time showed considerable stability. The findings are interpreted from the perspective of recent research in cognitive psychology as well as current thinking in consumer behavior and advertising research. Managerial implications are considered as well.

A multinomial logit model of brand choice, calibrated on 32 weeks of purchases of regular ground coffee by 100 households, shows high statistical signficance for the explanatory variables of brand loyalty, size loyalty, presence/absence of store promotion, regular shelf price and promotional price cut. The model is parsimonious in that the coefficients of these variables are modeled to be the same for all coffee brand-sizes. The calibrated model predicts remarkably well the share of purchases by brand-size in a hold-out sample of 100 households over the 32-week calibration period and a subsequent 20-week forecast period. The success of the model is attributed in part to the level of detail and completeness of the household panel data employed, which has been collected through optical scanning of the Universal Product Code in supermarkets. Three short-term market response measures are calculated from the model: regular (depromoted) price elasticity of share, percent increase in share for a promotion with a median price cut, and promotional price cut elasticity of share. Response varies across brand-sizes in a systematic way with large share brand-sizes showing less response in percentage terms but greater in absolute terms. On the basis of the model a quantitative picture emerges of groups of loyal customers who are relatively insensitive to marketing actions and a pool of switchers who are quite sensitive.