Knowledge that Transforms

Consumer search activities can be endogenously determined by the ad positions in sponsored search advertising. We model how advertisers compete for ad positions in sponsored listings and, conditional on the list of sponsored ads, how online consumers search for information and make purchase decisions. On the consumer side, assuming that users browse information from top to bottom and adopt a sequential search strategy, we develop a two-stage model of consumer search (whether to click and whether to stop the search) that extends the standard sequential search framework in economics literature. On the advertiser side, it is very difficult to fully specify the optimal strategies of advertisers because the equilibrium outcome depends on variables that researchers do not observe. As we have an incomplete model of advertiser competition, we propose using the necessary condition that, at equilibrium, no advertiser will find another available ad position more valuable than the one it has chosen. Using a data set obtained from a search engine, we find that consumers can be classified into two segments that exhibit distinct search behaviors. For advertisers, the value of search advertising comes primarily from terminal clicks, which represent the last link (including organic results) clicked by an online user. We also demonstrate that the value of ad positions depends not only on the identities and positions of the advertisers in sponsored listings but also the composition of online consumers who exhibit distinct search behaviors.

One of the most intriguing findings in the multichannel customer management literature is the positive association between multichannel purchasing and customer profitability. The question is whether this finding can be put into action. That is, can a firm develop a marketing campaign to increase multichannel purchasing and hence average customer profitability, and if so what are the key factors that enable success. We design and implement a randomized field experiment to investigate this question. The field experiment tests four marketing campaigns that vary in the communications message and the provision of financial incentives. We find that the multichannel/profitability relationship is actionable. A properly designed marketing campaign increases the number of multichannel customers and increases average customer profitability. That campaign’s message emphasizes the benefits of multichannel shopping but does not rely on financial incentives. Moreover, we use propensity score matching to show that, after accounting for self-selection, multichannel customers are more profitable than they would be if they were not multichannel. A post-test analysis suggests that the multichannel/nonfinancial incentive campaign succeeded in inducing customers to become multichannel because it decreased customer reactance and increased perceived behavioral control. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2015.0923 .

This research examines how prepurchase information that reduces consumer uncertainty about a product or service can affect consumer decisions to reverse an initial product purchase or service enrollment decision. One belief commonly held by retailers is that provision of greater amounts of information before the purchase reduces decision reversals. We provide theory and evidence showing conditions under which uncertainty-reducing information provided before the purchase decision can actually increase the number of decision reversals. Predictions generated from an analytical model of consumer behavior incorporating behavioral theory of reference-dependence are complemented by empirical evidence from both a controlled behavioral experiment and econometric analysis of archival data. Combined, the theory and evidence suggest that managers should be aware that their information provision decisions taken to reduce decision reversals may actually increase them. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2015.0906 .

Networks and the embedded relationships are critical determinants of how people communicate and form beliefs. The explosion of social media has significantly increased the scope and impact of social learning among consumers. This paper studies observational learning in networks of friends versus strangers. A consumer decides whether to adopt a product after receiving a private signal about product quality and observing the actions of others. The preference for the product has greater heterogeneity in the stranger-network than in the friend-network. We show that when the network is small, observing friends’ actions helps the consumer make more accurate inferences about quality. As the network grows, however, the stranger-network becomes more effective. Underlying these results are two competing effects of network heterogeneity on social learning. These are the individual preference effect, which allows one to make a better quality judgment when the preference element of past actions is more certain, and the social conforming effect, wherein private signals are underused in quality judgment as people follow others’ actions. We find cascading is more likely to occur in the friend-network than in the stranger-network. For a high-quality firm, the stranger-network generates greater sales than the friend-network when the network size is sufficiently large or the private signal is sufficiently accurate. We also examine the existence of experts and firms using advertising to influence consumers. Finally, we show how networks that are highly homogeneous or heterogeneous could impede observational learning.

We analyze two pricing mechanisms for information goods. These mechanisms are selling, where up-front payment allows unrestricted use, and pay-per-use, where payments are tailored to use. We analytically model a market where consumers differ in use frequency and where use on a pay-per-use basis invokes a psychological cost associated with the well known “ticking meter” effect. We demonstrate that pay-per-use yields higher profits in a monopoly provided the associated psychological cost is low. In a duopoly, one firm uses selling and the other uses pay-per-use. Here, in contrast to the monopoly, selling yields higher profits than pay-per-use. We demonstrate that, surprisingly, the profits of both duopolists can increase as the psychological cost associated with pay-per-use increases. Next, we show that uncertainty in consumer use frequency does not affect pay-per-use in a monopoly, but lowers profits from selling. In a duopoly, both the seller and the pay-per-use provider obtain lower profits when use frequency is uncertain. We also analyze how pricing mechanism performance is affected if the firms cannot commit to prices, if the pay-per-use provider offers a two-part tariff, and if consumers are risk-averse.

The notion of peer influence in new product adoption or trial is well accepted. We propose that peer influence may affect repeat behavior as well, though the process and source of influence are likely to differ between trial and repeat. Our analysis of the acceptance of a risky prescription drug by physicians provides three novel findings. First, there is evidence of contagion not only in trial but also in repeat. Second, who is most influential varies across stages. Physicians with high centrality in the discussion and referral network and with high prescription volume are influential in trial but not repeat. In contrast, immediate colleagues, few of whom are nominated as a discussion or referral partner, are influential in both trial and repeat. Third, who is most influenceable also varies across stages. For trial, it is physicians who do not consider themselves to be opinion leaders, whereas for repeat, it is those located towards the middle of the status distribution as measured by network centrality. The pattern of results is consistent with informational social influence reducing risk in trial and normative social influence increasing conformity in repeat.

Motivated by the growing practice of using social network data in credit scoring, we analyze the impact of using network-based measures on customer score accuracy and on tie formation among customers. We develop a series of models to compare the accuracy of customer scores obtained with and without network data. We also investigate how the accuracy of social network-based scores changes when consumers can strategically construct their social networks to attain higher scores. We find that those who are motivated to improve their scores may form fewer ties and focus more on similar partners. The impact of such endogenous tie formation on the accuracy of consumer scores is ambiguous. Scores can become more accurate as a result of modifications in social networks, but this accuracy improvement may come with greater network fragmentation. The threat of social exclusion in such endogenously formed networks provides incentives to low-type members to exert effort that improves everyone’s creditworthiness. We discuss implications for managers and public policy.

Media multitasking competes with television advertising for consumers’ attention, but may also facilitate immediate and measurable response to some advertisements. This paper explores whether and how television advertising influences online shopping. We construct a massive data set spanning $3.4 billion in spending by 20 brands, measures of brands’ website traffic and transactions, and ad content measures for 1,224 commercials. We use a quasi-experimental design to estimate whether and how TV advertising influences changes in online shopping within two-minute pre/post windows of time. We use nonadvertising competitors’ online shopping in a difference-in-differences approach to measure the same effects in two-hour windows around the time of the ad. The findings indicate that television advertising does influence online shopping and that advertising content plays a key role. Action-focus content increases direct website traffic and sales. Information-focus and emotion-focus ad content actually reduce website traffic while simultaneously increasing purchases, with a positive net effect on sales for most brands. These results imply that brands seeking to attract multitaskers’ attention and dollars must select their advertising copy carefully. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2014.0899 .

We investigate the causal effect of position in search engine advertising listings on outcomes such as click-through rates and sales orders. Because positions are determined through an auction, there are significant selection issues in measuring position effects. A simple mean comparison of outcomes at two positions is likely to be biased due to these selection issues. Additionally, experimentation is rendered difficult in this situation by competitors’ bidding behavior, which induces selection biases that cannot be eliminated by randomizing the bids for the focal advertiser. Econometric approaches to address the selection are rendered infeasible due to the difficulty of finding suitable instruments in this context. We show that a regression discontinuity (RD) approach is feasible to measure causal effects in this important context. We apply the approach to a large and unique data set of daily observations containing information on a focal advertiser as well as its major competitors. Our RD estimates demonstrate that there are significant selection biases in the more naive estimates. While a mean comparison of outcomes across positions would indicate very large position effects, we find that our RD estimates of these effects are much smaller, and exist only in some of the positions. We further investigate moderators of these effects. Position effects are stronger when the advertiser is smaller, and when the consumer has low prior experience with the keyword for the advertiser. They are weaker when the keyword phrase has specific brand or product information, when the ad copy is more specific as in exact matching options, and on weekends compared to weekdays.

Many firms operate customer communities online. This is motivated by the belief that customers who join the community become more engaged with the firm and/or its products, and as a result, increase their economic activity with the firm. We describe this potential economic benefit as “social dollars.” This paper contributes evidence for the existence and source of social dollars using data from a multichannel entertainment products retailer that launched a customer community online. We find a significant increase in customer expenditures attributable to customers joining the firm’s community. While self-selection is a concern with field data, we rule out multiple alternative explanations. Social dollars persist over the time period observed and arose primarily in the online channel. To assess the source of the social dollar, we hypothesize and test whether it is moderated by participation behaviors conceptually linked to common attributes of customer communities. Our results reveal that posters (versus lurkers) of community content and those with more (versus fewer) social ties in the community generated more (fewer) social dollars. We found a null effect for our measure of the informational advantage expected to accrue to products that differentially benefit from content posted by like-minded community members. This overall pattern of results suggests a stronger social than informational source of economic benefits for firm operators of customer communities. Several implications for firms considering investments in and/or managing online customer communities are discussed.