The focus of this “OR framing paper” is to introduce the operations research (OR) community to the need for new mathematical modeling of an influenza pandemic and its control. By reviewing relevant history and literature, one key concern that emerges relates to how a population’s heterogeneity may affect disease progression. Another is to explore within a modeling framework “social distancing” as a disease progression control method, where social distancing refers to steps aimed at reducing the frequency and intensity of daily human-to-human contacts. To depict social contact behavior of a heterogeneous population susceptible to infection, a nonhomogeneous probabilistic mixing model is developed. Partitioning the population of susceptibles into subgroups, based on frequency of daily human contacts and infection propensities, a stylistic difference equation model is then developed depicting the day-to-day evolution of the disease. This simple model is then used to develop a preliminary set of results. Two key findings are (1) early exponential growth of the disease may be dominated by susceptibles with high human contact frequencies and may not be indicative of the general population’s susceptibility to the disease, and (2) social distancing may be an effective nonmedical way to limit and perhaps even eradicate the disease. Much more decision-focused research needs to be done before any of these preliminary findings may be used in practice.

The weapon-target assignment (WTA) problem is a fundamental problem arising in defense-related applications of operations research. This problem consists of optimally assigning n weapons to m targets so that the total expected survival value of the targets after all the engagements is minimal. The WTA problem can be formulated as a nonlinear integer programming problem and is known to be NP-complete. No exact methods exist for the WTA problem that can solve even small-size problems (for example, with 20 weapons and 20 targets). Although several heuristic methods have been proposed to solve the WTA problem, due to the absence of exact methods, no estimates are available on the quality of solutions produced by such heuristics. In this paper, we suggest integer programming and network flow-based lower-bounding methods that we obtain using a branch-and-bound algorithm for the WTA problem. We also propose a network flow-based construction heuristic and a very large-scale neighborhood (VLSN) search algorithm. We present computational results of our algorithms, which indicate that we can solve moderately large instances (up to 80 weapons and 80 targets) of the WTA problem optimally and obtain almost optimal solutions of fairly large instances (up to 200 weapons and 200 targets) within a few seconds.