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The Problem of the Amber Signal Light in Traffic Flow

Operations Research 1960 8(1), 112-132
A theoretical analysis and observations of the behavior of motorists confronted by an amber signal light are presented. A discussion is given of the following problem when confronted with an improperly timed amber light phase a motorist may find himself, at the moment the amber phase commences, in the predicament of being too close to the intersection to stop safely or comfortably and yet too far from it to pass completely through the intersection before the red signal commences. The influence on this problem of the speed of approach to the intersection is analyzed. Criteria are presented for the design of amber signal light phases through whose use such “dilemma zones” can be avoided, in the interest of over-all safety at intersections.

Nonlinear Follow-the-Leader Models of Traffic Flow

Operations Research 1961 9(4), 545-567
A variety of nonlinear follow-the-leader models of traffic flow are discussed in the light of available observational and experimental data. Emphasis is placed on steady-state flow equations. Some trends regarding the advantages of certain follow-the-leader functionals over others are established. However, it is found from extensive correlation studies that more data are needed before one can establish the unequivocal superiority of one particular model. A discussion is given of some ideas concerning the possible reasons for the existence of a bimodal flow versus concentration curve especially for multilane highways.

Traffic Dynamics: Studies in Car Following

Operations Research 1958 6(2), 165-184
The manner in which vehicles follow each other on a highway (without passing) and the propagation disturbances down a line of vehicles has been investigated. Experimental data is presented which indicates that the acceleration at time t of a car which is attempting to follow a leader is proportional to the difference in velocity of the two cars at a time (t − Δ), Δ being about 1.5 sec and the proportionality constant being about 0.37 sec−1. It is shown theoretically that the motion of a long line of vehicles becomes unstable when the product of the lag time and the proportionality constant exceeds one-half. The experimental data implies that driving is done on the verge of instability. A variety of other laws of following is analyzed theoretically.