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A Model of Consumer Inertia with Applications to Dynamic Pricing

Production and Operations Management 2009
This paper introduces a decision model of consumer inertia. Consumers exhibit inertia when they have an inherent bias to delay purchases. Inertia may induce consumers to wait even when it is optimal to buy immediately. We embed our decision model within a dynamic pricing context. There is a firm that sells a fixed capacity over two time periods to an uncertain number of both rational and inertial consumers. We find that consumer inertia has both positive and negative effects on profits: it decreases demand (in period one) but intensifies competition among consumers for the product (in period two). We show that our model of inertia is consistent with well‐established behavioral regularities, such as loss aversion and probability weighting in the sense of prospect theory, and hyperbolic time preferences. We offer practical recommendations for firms to influence the level of consumer inertia. These include offering returns policies (to mitigate potential consumer losses), providing decision aids (to avoid perception errors), and offering flexible payment options (to lower transaction costs).

Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning

Production and Operations Management 2009
To date, little research has been done on managing the organizational and political dimensions of generating and improving forecasts in corporate settings. We examine the implementation of a supply chain planning process at a consumer electronics company, concentrating on the forecasting approach around which the process revolves. Our analysis focuses on the forecasting process and how it mediates and accommodates the functional biases that can impair the forecast accuracy. We categorize the sources of functional bias into intentional, driven by misalignment of incentives and the disposition of power within the organization, and unintentional, resulting from informational and procedural blind spots. We show that the forecasting process, together with the supporting mechanisms of information exchange and elicitation of assumptions, is capable of managing the potential political conflict and the informational and procedural shortcomings. We also show that the creation of an independent group responsible for managing the forecasting process, an approach that we distinguish from generating forecasts directly, can stabilize the political dimension sufficiently to enable process improvement to be steered. Finally, we find that while a coordination system—the relevant processes, roles and responsibilities, and structure—can be designed to address existing individual and functional biases in the organization, the new coordination system will in turn generate new individual and functional biases. The introduced framework of functional biases (whether those biases are intentional or not), the analysis of the political dimension of the forecasting process, and the idea of a coordination system are new constructs to better understand the interface between operations management and other functions.

The Impact of Organizational Structure on Mass Customization Capability: A Contingency View

Production and Operations Management 2009 open access
This study investigates the role of organizational structure in facilitating the development of mass customization (MC) capability in various manufacturing settings. Specifically, three dimensions of organizational structure are considered—flatness, centralization, and employee multifunctionality. We model organizational structure as a second‐order factor whose value is captured on a mechanistic‐organic continuum, where the organic form is characterized by a flat, decentralized structure with a wide use of multifunctional employees. We propose that a positive relationship exists between the organic organizational structure and MC capability. Additionally, building upon contingency theory, we argue that this positive relationship is moderated by mass customizer type—full mass customizers, which customize products at the design or fabrication stage of the production cycle, versus partial customizers, which customize products only at the assembly or delivery stages. Based on a study of 167 manufacturing plants from three industries and eight countries, we find that, for the overall sample, organic structure plays a significant role in enabling firms to pursue MC capability. However, an analysis of full versus partial mass customizers shows that the positive impact of organic structure on MC capability is statistically significant only for full mass customizers, not for partial mass customizers.

Managing White‐Collar Work: An Operations‐Oriented Survey

Production and Operations Management 2009 open access
Although white‐collar work is of vast importance to the economy, the operations management (OM) literature has focused largely on traditional blue‐collar work. In an effort to stimulate more OM research into the design, control, and management of white‐collar work systems, this paper provides a systematic review of disparate streams of research relevant to understanding white‐collar work from an operations perspective. Our review classifies research according to its relevance to white‐collar work at individual, team, and organizational levels. By examining the literature in the context of this framework, we identify gaps in our understanding of white‐collar work that suggest promising research directions.

Sourcing Decisions with Stochastic Supplier Reliability and Stochastic Demand

Production and Operations Management 2009
Supplier sourcing strategies are a crucial factor driving supply chain success. In this paper, we investigate the implications of uncertain supplier reliability on a firm's sourcing decisions in an environment with stochastic demand. In particular, we characterize specific conditions under which a firm should choose a single versus multiple supplier sourcing strategy. In an environment with both uncertain demand and supply, we characterize the total order quantity, the number of suppliers selected for order placement, and the allocation of the total order quantity among these selected suppliers. For deeper managerial insight, we also examine the sensitivity of the optimal sourcing decisions to interactions between uncertainties in product demand and supply reliability. We show that sourcing from a single supplier is an optimal strategy for environments characterized by high levels of demand uncertainty or high salvage values. A numerical analysis based on data obtained from an office products retailer further reinforces our analytical results. In addition, we also find that when minimal order quantities are imposed, there are situations where it is not optimal to place an order with the lowest cost supplier.

Improving Performance in Outpatient Appointment Services with a Simulation Optimization Approach

Production and Operations Management 2009
Outpatient health care service providers face increasing pressure to improve the quality of their service through effective scheduling of appointments. In this paper, a simulation optimization approach is used to determine optimal rules for a stochastic appointment scheduling problem. This approach allows for the consideration of more variables and factors in modeling this system than in prior studies, providing more flexibility in setting policy under various problem settings and environmental factors. Results show that the dome scheduling rule proposed in prior literature is robust, but practitioners could benefit from considering a flatter, “plateau‐dome.” The plateau–dome scheduling pattern is shown to be robust over many different performance measures and scenarios. Furthermore, because this is the first application of simulation optimization to appointment scheduling, other insights are gleaned that were not possible with prior methodologies.

Measuring the Impact of Increased Product Substitution on Pricing and Capacity Decisions Under Linear Demand Models

Production and Operations Management 2009
We consider two substitutable products and compare two alternative measures of product substitutability for linear demand functions that are commonly used in the literature. While one leads to unrealistically high prices and profits as products become more substitutable, the results obtained using the other measure are in line with intuition. Using the more appropriate measure of product substitutability, we study the optimal investment mix in flexible and dedicated capacities in both monopoly and oligopoly settings. We find that the optimal investment in manufacturing flexibility tends to decrease as the products become closer substitutes; this is because (1) pricing can be used more effectively to balance supply and demand, and (2) the gains obtained by shifting production to the more profitable product are reduced due to increased correlation between the price potentials of the substitutable products. The value of flexibility always increases with demand variability. We also show that, as long as the optimal investments in dedicated capacity for both products are positive, the optimal expected prices and production quantities do not depend on the cost of the flexible capacity. Manufacturing flexibility simply allows the firm to achieve those expected values with lower capacity, while leading to higher expected profits.

Outsourcing to a Powerful Contract Manufacturer: The Effect of Learning‐by‐Doing

Production and Operations Management 2009
The contract manufacturing industry has grown rapidly in recent years as firms have increasingly outsourced production to reduce costs. This growth has created powerful contract manufacturers (CMs) in several industries. Achieving a competitive cost position is often a primary motive for outsourcing. Outsourcing influences both the original equipment manufacturer's (OEM) and the CM's production levels, and, therefore, through learning‐by‐doing renders future costs dependent on past outsourcing decisions. As such, outsourcing should not be viewed as a static decision that, once made, is not revisited. We address these considerations by analyzing a two‐period game between an OEM and a powerful CM wherein both firms can reduce their production costs through learning‐by‐doing. We find that partial outsourcing, wherein the OEM simultaneously outsources and produces in‐house, can be an optimal strategy. Also, we find that the OEM's outsourcing strategy may be dynamic—i.e., change from period to period. In addition, we find both that the OEM may engage in production for leverage (i.e., produce internally when at a cost disadvantage) and that the CM may engage in low balling. These and other findings in this paper demonstrate the importance of considering learning, the power of the CM, and future periods when making outsourcing decisions.

Demand Forecast Sharing in Supply Chains

Production and Operations Management 2009
This paper examines the incentives of a manufacturer and a retailer to share their demand forecasts. The demand at the retailer is a linearly decreasing function of price. The manufacturer sets the wholesale price first, and the retailer sets the retail price after observing the wholesale price. Both players set their prices based on their forecasts of demand. In the make‐to‐order scenario, the manufacturer sets the production quantity after observing the actual demand; in the make‐to‐stock scenario, the manufacturer sets the production quantity before the demand is realized. In the make‐to‐order scenario, we show that sharing the forecast unconditionally by the retailer with the manufacturer benefits the manufacturer but hurts the retailer. We also demonstrate that a side payment contract cannot induce Pareto‐optimal information sharing equilibrium, but a discount based wholesale price contract can. The social welfare as well as consumer surplus is higher under the discount contract, compared with under no information sharing. In the make‐to‐stock scenario, the manufacturer realizes additional benefits in the form of savings in inventory holding and shortage costs when forecasts are shared. If the savings from inventory holding and shortage costs because of information sharing are sufficiently high, then a side payment contract that induces Pareto‐optimal information sharing is feasible in the make‐to‐stock scenario. We also provide additional managerial insights with the help of a computational study.

Tradeoffs in Manufacturing? A Meta‐Analysis and Critique of the Literature

Production and Operations Management 2009
An ongoing, important question in the operations strategy literature pertains to tradeoffs: Can manufacturers focus on multiple priorities simultaneously or achieve strength on multiple capabilities without sacrificing performance of another? In this paper, we accumulate, integrate, and examine the wide spectrum of conclusions reached in the literature concerning tradeoffs using modified meta‐analysis methods. Based on two decades of empirical research in operations strategy, we find that the evidence in the literature indicates manufacturers, on average, do not report experiencing tradeoffs among the competitive dimensions of quality, delivery, flexibility, and cost as suggested by the classical tradeoffs model. Our meta‐analysis also reveals that the way variables are operationalized, whether initiatives are implemented, and the unit of analysis are all related to the degree and nature of the evidence a paper contains with respect to the tradeoffs issue. We interpret our meta‐analysis results in the context of the prevailing model of manufacturing strategy and the theory of performance frontiers. We also discuss how the research designs used in this literature, which are predominantly cross‐sectional, affect the nature of the evidence generated and the conclusions that can be drawn. We go on to suggest research designs that more directly assess the tradeoffs issue.