Knowledge that Transforms

We examine the impact of asset liquidation value on debt contracting using a unique set of commercial property non-recourse loan contracts.We employ commercial zoning regulation to capture the flexibility of a property's permitted uses as a measure of an asset's redeployability or value in its next best use.Within a census tract, more redeployable assets receive larger loans with longer maturities and durations, lower interest rates, and fewer creditors, controlling for the current value of the property, its type, and neighborhood.These results are consistent with incomplete contracting and transaction cost theories of liquidation value and financial structure.

Modigliani and Cohn hypothesize that the stock market suffers from money illusion, discounting real cash flows at nominal discount rates. While previous research has focused on the pricing of the aggregate stock market relative to Treasury bills, the money-illusion hypothesis also has implications for the pricing of risky stocks relative to safe stocks. Simultaneously examining the pricing of Treasury bills, safe stocks, and risky stocks allows us to distinguish money illusion from any change in the attitudes of investors toward risk. Our empirical results support the hypothesis that the stock market suffers from money illusion.

We combine particular features of the German civil service with the unique event of German reunification to test the theory of precautionary savings and to quantify the importance of self-selection into occupations due to differences in risk aversion. In the presence of self-selection, failing to control for risk aversion in empirical tests of precautionary savings results in a bias that could lead to a false rejection of the theory. We exploit the fact that for individuals from the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) German reunification in 1990 caused an exogenous reassignment of income risks. Our findings suggest that self-selection of risk averse individuals into low-risk occupations is economically important and decreases aggregate precautionary wealth holdings significantly.

This paper views the standard production function in macroeconomics as a reduced form and derives its properties from microfoundations.The shape of this production function is governed by the distribution of ideas.If that distribution is Pareto, then two results obtain: the global production function is Cobb-Douglas, and technical change in the long run is labor-augmenting.Kortum (1997) showed that Pareto distributions are necessary if search-based idea models are to exhibit steady-state growth.Here we show that this same assumption delivers the additional results about the shape of the production function and the direction of technical change.

This paper formalizes a widely discussed peer eect entitled 'acting white'. 'Acting White'is modeled as a two audience signaling quandary: signals that induce high wages can be signals that induce peer group rejection. Without peer eects, equilibria involve all ability types choosing dierent levels of education. 'Acting White'alters the equilibrium dramatically: the (possibly empty) set of lowest ability individuals and the set of highest ability individuals continue to reveal their type through investments in education; ability types in the middle interval pool on a common education level. Only those in the lower intervals are accepted by the group. The model's predictions …t many stylized facts in the anthropology and sociology literatures regarding social interactions among minority group members.

In this paper, we develop a simple model of international outsourcing and apply it to processing trade in China.We observe China's processing exports broken down by who owns the plant and by who controls the inputs the plant processes.Multinational firms engaged in export processing in China tend to split factory ownership and input control with managers in China: the most common outcome is to have foreign factory ownership but Chinese control over input purchases.To account for this organizational arrangement, we appeal to a property-rights model of the firm.Multinational firms and the Chinese factory managers with whom they contract divide the surplus associated with export processing by Nash bargaining.Investments in input search, production, and marketing are partially relationship specific.In our benchmarks estimates, this relationship specificity is lowest in southern coastal provinces, where export markets are thickest, and highest in interior and northern provinces.The probability contracts are enforced has a similar pattern and is the lowest along the southern coast and the highest in the north.

We examine the impact of air pollution on infant death in California over the 1990s. Our work offers several innovations: First, many previous studies examine populations subject to far greater levels of pollution. In contrast, the experience of California in the 1990s is clearly relevant to current debates over the regulation of pollution. Second, many studies examine a few routinely monitored pollutants in isolation, generally because of data limitations. We examine four criteria pollutants in a common framework. Third, we develop an identification strategy based on within zip code variation in pollution levels that controls for potentially important unobserved characteristics of high pollution areas. Fourth, we use rich individual-level data to investigate effects of pollution on infant mortality, fetal deaths, low birth weight and prematurity in a common framework. We find that the reductions in carbon monoxide (CO) and particulates (PM10) over the 1990s in California saved over 1,000 infant lives. However, we find little consistent evidence of pollution effects on fetal deaths, low birth weight or short gestation.

What determines the intensity and objects of hatred?Hatred forms when people believe that outgroups are responsible for past and future crimes, but the reality of past crimes has little to do with the level of hatred.Instead, hatred is the result of an equilibrium where politicians supply stories of past atrocities in order to discredit the opposition and consumers listen to them.The supply of hatred is a function of the degree to which minorities gain or lose from particular party platforms, and as such, groups that are particularly poor or rich are likely to be hated.Strong constitutions that limit the policy space and ban specific anti-minority policies will limit hate.The demand for hatred falls if consumers interact regularly with the hated group, unless their interactions are primarily abusive.The power of hatred is so strong that opponents of hatred motivate their supporters by hating the haters.

This paper examines the interactions between household formation, inequality, and per capita income. We develop a model in which agents decide to become skilled or unskilled and form households. We show that the equilibrium sorting of spouses by skill type (their correlation in skills) is an increasing function of the skill premium. In the absence of perfect capital markets, the economy can converge to different steady states, depending upon initial conditions. The degree of marital sorting and wage inequality is positively correlated across steady states and negatively correlated with per capita income. We use household surveys from 34 countries to construct several measures of the skill premium and of the degree of correlation of spouses' education (marital sorting). For all our measures, we find a positive and significant relationship between the two variables. We also find that sorting and per capita GDP are negatively correlated and that greater discrimination against women leads to more sorting, in line with the predictions of our model.

This paper analyzes the effects of dividend taxation on corporate behavior using the large tax cut on individual dividend income enacted in 2003.Using data spanning 1980 to 2004-Q2, we document a sharp and widespread surge in dividend payments following the tax cut, along several dimensions.First, an unprecedented number of firms initiated regular dividend payments after the reform.As a result, the number of publicly traded firms paying dividends, after having declined continuously for more than two decades, began to increase precisely in 2003.Second, many firms that were already paying dividends prior to the reform raised regular dividend payments significantly.Third, special dividends also rose.All of these effects are robust to introducing controls for profits and other firm characteristics.Additional evidence for specific groups of firms suggests that the tax cut induced increases in total payout rather than substitution between dividends and repurchases.The tax response was confined to firms with lower levels of forecasted growth, consistent with an improvement in capital allocation efficiency.The response to the tax cut was strongest in firms with strong principals whose tax incentives changed (presence of large taxable institutional owners or independent directors with large share holdings), and in firms where agents had stronger incentives to respond (large executive ownership and low levels of executive stock-options outstanding).These findings show that principal-agent issues play a central role in corporate responses to taxation.