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The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2000 115(4), 1091-1135
In a partially reformed economy, distortions beget distortions. Segments of the economy that are freed from centralized control respond to the rent-seeking opportunities implicit in the remaining distortions of the economy. The battle to capture, and then protect, these rents leads to the creation of new distortions, even as the reform process tries to move forward. In this paper I illustrate this idea with a study of the People's Republic of China. Under the plan, prices were skewed so as to concentrate profits, and hence revenue, in industry. As control over factor allocations was loosened, local governments throughout the economy sought to capture these rents by developing high margin industries. Continued reform, and growing interregional competition between duplicative industries, threatened the profitability of these industrial structures, leading local governments to impose a variety of interregional barriers to trade. Thus, the reform process led to the fragmentation of the domestic market and the distortion of regional production away from patterns of comparative advantage.

In a World Without Borders: The Impact of Taxes on Internet Commerce

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2000 115(2), 561-576
The rapid rise in sales over the Internet and the fact that most Internet buyers pay no sales tax has ignited a considerable debate over taxes and the Internet. This paper uses new data on the purchase decisions of approximately 25,000 online users to examine the effect of local sales taxes on Internet commerce. The results suggest that, controlling for observable characteristics, people living in high sales taxes locations are significantly more likely to buy online. The results are quite robust and cannot be explained by unobserved technological sophistication, shopping costs, or other alternative explanations. The magnitudes in the paper suggest that applying existing sales taxes to Internet commerce might reduce the number of online buyers by up to 24 percent.

Why Did the West Extend the Franchise? Democracy, Inequality, and Growth in Historical Perspective

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2000 115(4), 1167-1199
During the nineteenth century most Western societies extended voting rights, a decision that led to unprecedented redistributive programs. We argue that these political reforms can be viewed as strategic decisions by the political elite to prevent widespread social unrest and revolution. Political transition, rather than redistribution under existing political institutions, occurs because current transfers do not ensure future transfers, while the extension of the franchise changes future political equilibria and acts as a commitment to redistribution. Our theory also offers a novel explanation for the Kuznets curve in many Western economies during this period, with the fall in inequality following redistribution due to democratization.

Economics and Identity*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2000 115(3), 715-753 open access
This paper considers how identity, a person's sense of self, affects economic outcomes. We incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior. In the utility function we propose, identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave. We then construct a simple game-theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions. The paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace, the economics of poverty and social exclusion, and the household division of labor. In each case, the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis.

Measuring Trust*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2000 115(3), 811-846 open access
We combine two experiments and a survey to measure trust and trustworthiness—two key components of social capital. Standard attitudinal survey questions about trust predict trustworthy behavior in our experiments much better than they predict trusting behavior. Trusting behavior in the experiments is predicted by past trusting behavior outside of the experiments. When individuals are closer socially, both trust and trustworthiness rise. Trustworthiness declines when partners are of different races or nationalities. High status individuals are able to elicit more trustworthiness in others.

Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2000 115(4), 1137-1166
What is the current account response to transitory income shocks such as temporary changes in the terms of trade, transfers from abroad, or fluctuations in production? We propose this new rule: the current account response equals the saving generated by the shock times the country's share of foreign assets in total assets. This rule implies that favourable shocks lead to deficits (surpluses) in debtor (creditor) countries. This rule is a natural implication of the intertemporal approach to the current account if investment risk is high and diminishing returns are weak. Evidence from industrial countries broadly supports this rule.