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Are CEOs Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(3), 653-691
A common view is that there is little correlation between firm performance and CEO pay. Using a new fifteen-year panel data set of CEOs in the largest, publicly traded U. S. companies, we document a strong relationship between firm performance and CEO compensation. This relationship is generated almost entirely by changes in the value of CEO holdings of stock and stock options. In addition, we show that both the level of CEO compensation and the sensitivity of compensation to firm performance have risen dramatically since 1980, largely because of increases in stock option grants.

Skilled Labor-Augmenting Technical Progress in U. S. Manufacturing

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(4), 1281-1308
This paper examines the role of skilled labor in the growth of total factor productivity. We use panel data from manufacturing industries to assess the extent to which productivity growth in yearly cross sections is tied to industry shares of skilled labor inputs. We find robust evidence that productivity growth was increasingly concentrated in high-skill industries during a unique ten-year period beginning in the early 1970s. We do not find any positive association of productivity growth with new capital investment.

Measuring the Social Return to R&D

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(4), 1119-1135
Is there too much or too little research and development (R&D)? In this paper we bridge the gap between the recent growth literature and the empirical productivity literature. We derive in a growth model the relationship between the social rate of return to R&D and the coefficient estimates of the empirical literature and show that these estimates represent a lower bound. Furthermore, our analytic framework provides a direct mapping from the rate of return to the degree of underinvestment in research. Conservative estimates suggest that optimal R&D investment is at least two to four times actual investment.

Workers, Machines, and Economic Growth

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(4), 1091-1117
This paper analyzes a model of economic growth, with technological innovations that reduce labor requirements but raise capital requirements. The paper has two main results. The first is that such technological innovations are not everywhere adopted, but only in countries with high productivity. The second result is that technology adoption significantly amplifies differences in productivity between countries. This paper can, therefore, add to our understanding of large and persistent international differences in output per capita. The model also helps to explain other growth phenomena, like divergence or periods of rapid growth.

The Economic Consequences of Parental Leave Mandates: Lessons from Europe

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(1), 285-317 open access
This study investigates the economic consequences of rights to paid parental leave in nine European countries over the 1969 through 1993 period. Since women use virtually all parental leave in most nations, men constitute a reasonable comparison group, and most of the analysis examines how changes in paid leave affect the gap between female and male labor market outcomes. The employment-to-populations ratios of women in their prime childbearing years are also compared with those of corresponding aged men and older females. Parental leave is associated with increases in women's employment, but with reductions in their relative wages at extended durations.

Insecure Property Rights and Government Ownership of Firms

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(2), 467-496 open access
We develop a theory of the ownership of firms in an environment without secure property rights against state encroachment. “Private ownership” leads to excessive revenue hiding, and “state ownership” (i.e., national government ownership) fails to provide incentives for managers and local governments in a credible way. Because “local government ownership” integrates local government activities and business activities, local government may better serve the interests of the national government, and thus local government ownership may credibly limit state predation, increase local public goods provision, and reduce costly revenue hiding. We use our theory to interpret the relative success of local government-owned firms during China's transition to a market economy.

Technology and Changes in Skill Structure: Evidence from Seven OECD Countries

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(4), 1215-1244 open access
This paper compares the changing skill structure of wage bills and employment in the United States with six other OECD countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). We investigate whether a directly observed measure of technical change (R&D intensity) is closely linked to the growth in the importance of more highly skilled workers which has occurred in all countries. Evidence of a significant association between skill upgrading and R&D intensity is uncovered in all seven countries. These results provide evidence that skill-biased technical change is an international phenomenon that has had a clear effect of increasing the relative demand for skilled workers.

Why Do Firms Train? Theory and Evidence

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(1), 79-119
This paper offers a theory of training whereby workers do not pay for the general training they receive. The superior information of the current employer regarding its employees' abilities relative to other firms creates ex post monopsony power, and encourages this employer to provide and pay for training, even if these skills are general. The model can lead to multiple equlibria. In one equilibrium quits are endogenously high, and as a result employers have limited monopsony power and provide little training, while in another equilibrium quits are low and training is high. Using microdata on German apprentices, we show that the predictions of our model receive some support from the data.

Paying for Health Insurance: The Trade-Off between Competition and Adverse Selection

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(2), 433-466
We use data on health plan choices by employees of Harvard University to compare the benefits of insurance competition with the costs of adverse selection. Moving to a voucher-type system induced significant adverse selection, with a welfare loss of 2 to 4 percent of baseline spending. But increased competition reduced Harvard’s premiums by 5 to 8 percent. The premium reductions came from insurer profits, so while Harvard was better off, the net effect for society was only the adverse selection loss. Adverse selection can be minimized by adjusting voucher amounts for individual risk. We discuss how such a system would work. Governments are increasingly turning to market forces as a way to limit the cost of social insurance. Traditionally, social insurance programs were operated as nonmarket goods; govern-ments mandated participation in a central program, collected revenues to finance the program, and ran the insurance system. There was no role for competition among suppliers in providing the basic benefit.

Is Learning by Exporting Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(3), 903-947
Do firms become more efficient after becoming exporters? Do exporters generate positive externalities for domestically oriented producers? In this paper we tackle these questions by analyzing the causal links between exporting and productivity using plant-level data. We look for evidence that firms' cost processes change after they break into foreign markets. We find that relatively efficient firms become exporters; however, in most industries, firms' costs are not affected by previous exporting activities. So the well-documented positive association between exporting and efficiency is explained by the self-selection of the more efficient firms into the export market. We also find some evidence of positive regional externalities.