Past research has recognized that both demand and capability influence the allocation of R&D resources. Scholars have had an easier time getting a grip on demand than on capability. While it has been recognized that knowledge is an important part of capability, to date, formalization of knowledge and its role in R&D activity has been unsatisfactory. This paper models the role of knowledge in R&D. Various sources of such knowledge are considered. The model throws a different light on analyses that employ a “knowledge capital stock, †and also illuminates the dual private and public nature of technological knowledge.

I. Introduction, 41. — II. The equilibrium of the competitive firm, 42; the cost of uncertainty, 42; the economics of prediction, 46; prediction and profit, 48; prediction and supply, 51. — III. The equilibrium of the competitive industry, 54; prediction and profit in a closed industry, 55; prediction and economic equilibrium in an open industry, 58; prediction and price variation, 58; decentralization of prediction, 60. — IV. Conclusions, 61.

Introduction, 420. — I. The general framework, 422. — II. The use of weather information, 425. — III. The making of forecasts: optimal information structures, 431. — IV. Other problems of cost, 436.

I. Introduction: Neoclassical theory and the evolutionary alternative, 90, — II. A specific evolutionary model, 93. — III. Calibration of the model, 98. — IV. Simulation results, 102. — V. Conclusion, 116.