Regional migration is analyzed utilizing a model that develops a system of urban areas. The areas differ in their endowment of a site-specific factor—climate is used as the example. The effects of differences in tax rates and technology are determined in a model where the price of housing is endogenous. Compensation for an inferior climate occurs through regional differences in income levels or the price of housing, dependent on the manner in which climate affects production or consumption. The market distribution of households is found to be suboptimal in cases where utility is derived directly from the consumption of climate. The locational choice of households is determined by a variety of factors. Recent contributions concentrating on climatic variations are Graves [1979], Graves and Linneman [1979], and Izraeli [1973]. A problem with the migration literature has been the lack of specifi-cation of a model that contains a system of urbanized areas. The model should determine the equilibrium size of urban areas. The migration flow results from the adjustment of the stock of population to changes

This article estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1ºC warming reduces world GDP by over 20% in the long run. Global temperature correlates strongly with extreme climatic events, unlike country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining our larger estimate. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth model. Business-as-usual warming implies a present welfare loss of more than 30%, and a social cost of carbon in excess of $1,200 per ton. These impacts suggest that unilateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States.

We evaluate the impact of a training program aimed at improving the relational atmosphere in the workplace. The program encourages prosocial behavior and the use of professional language, focusing primarily on leaders’ behavior and leader-subordinate interactions. We implement this program using a clustered randomized design involving over 3,000 headquarters employees of 20 large corporations in Turkey. We evaluate the program with respect to employee separation, pro- and antisocial behavior, the prevalence of support networks, and perceived workplace climate. We find that treated firms have a lower likelihood of employee separation at the leadership level, fewer employees lacking professional and personal help, and denser, less segregated support networks. We also find that employees in treated corporations are less inclined to engage in toxic competition, exhibit higher reciprocity toward each other, and report higher workplace satisfaction and a more collegial environment. The program’s success in improving leader-subordinate relationships emerges as a likely mechanism to explain these results. Treated subordinates report higher professionalism and empathy in their leaders and are more likely to consider their leaders as professional support providers.

This article studies how innovation reacts to climate change and shapes its economic impacts, focusing on U.S. agriculture. We show in a model that directed innovation can either mitigate or exacerbate climate change’s potential economic damage depending on the substitutability between new technology and favorable climatic conditions. To empirically investigate the technological response to climate change, we measure crop-specific exposure to damaging extreme temperatures and crop-specific innovation embodied in new variety releases and patents. We find that innovation has redirected since the mid-twentieth century toward crops with increasing exposure to extreme temperatures. Moreover, this effect is driven by types of agricultural technology most related to environmental adaptation. We next show that U.S. counties’ exposure to induced innovation significantly dampens the local economic damage from extreme temperatures. Combining these estimates with the model, we find that directed innovation has offset 20% of potential losses in U.S. agricultural land value due to damaging climate trends since 1960 and that innovation could offset 13% of projected damage by 2100. These findings highlight the vital importance, but incomplete effectiveness, of endogenous technological change as a source of adaptation to climate change.

I. Decline in Roman agriculture, 173. — Contrasted views, 175. — Liebig and Simkhovitch on exhaustion of soil, 176. — Conrad on climatic change, 177. — II. Four climatic hypotheses: (1) Uniformity, 178. — Geological view, 178. — Historical view, 179. — Ancient famines, 180. — Water works, 181. — Cyrene, 181. — Ilandarin, 182. — Ancient vegetation and crops, 183. — (2) Local changes and deforestation, 185. — (3) Progressive change in one direction, 185. — (4) Pulsatory or irregular changes, 186. — III. Caspian Sea, 186. — California lakes and trees, 188. — Palmyra as an example of effect of climatic changes, 188. — Nature of such changes, 189. — Dates of changes in old world and new, 191. — IV. Historical effects of changes: (1) Economic results, agriculture, forests, cattle, 194. — (2) Political results, taxation, barbarian invasion, 198. — (3) Biological results, elimination of Nordics, increase of malaria, decline of physical energy, 201. — V. Climate and civilization, 204. — Conclusion, 207.

Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [−$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.