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Temporary technology and the maintenance of technological sovereignty

Research Policy 2026 55(8), 105577 open access
This study investigates how technologies emerge to sustain technological sovereignty in response to exogenous shocks. We focus on the efforts of the Finnish state to overcome the shortage of mineral oil-based lubricants during the Second World War and identify tar oil as a central technology in this endeavor. By analyzing the emergence and decline of the Finnish tar oil industry, we elaborate on the life cycle and key mechanisms of temporary technologies as well as their role in maintaining technological sovereignty. These findings lead to a definition of temporary technology as a distinct form of technology evolution. Our findings contribute to the technology evolution literature by theorizing a form of technology that has a limited long-term impact, making it suitable for addressing temporary shocks without altering long-term technology evolution. For the technological sovereignty literature, we extend understanding of how sovereignty can be maintained in the face of unanticipated exogenous shocks and how that involves cooperation between the state and non-state actors.

The rise of platforms in regulated industries: Ownership, curation, and the asymmetric strategies of challenger versus incumbent banks

Research Policy 2026 open access
How do platforms emerge in regulated, data-sensitive industries? Drawing on 82 interviews and archival data on UK retail banking from 2016 to 2024, we show that challenger banks build platforms easily but struggle to grow their user base, as data sensitivity and partial outsourcing of resource-intensive infrastructure create a self-reinforcing cycle of trust, resilience, and resource strain. Incumbents face the opposite problem: established user bases offer a network-effect advantage, yet legacy IT, compliance siloes, and cannibalization fears constrain ownership and curation. We show how platform-as-a-service providers emerge in response, but powerful incumbent buyers reverse the platform power asymmetry by forcing closed curation. We develop a theoretical framework with implications for other data-sensitive sectors such as healthcare and insurance.

Does financial innovation lead to technological innovation? Evidence from foreign exchange derivatives

Research Policy 2026 open access
We investigate whether financial innovation, specifically the use of foreign exchange (FX) derivative products, spurs firms’ technological innovation, measured with patent-based metrics. Using a quasi-exogenous shock that reduces the cost of using FX derivatives and varying FX equity exposure of firms, we find that increased utilization of FX derivatives results in higher patent production. The primary mechanism driving this relationship is the reduction in financial constraints and enhanced risk management. The effect is especially pronounced for firms facing difficulties in raising equity capital. Our results indicate that the use of FX derivatives boosts innovative output by improving firms’ ability to raise equity capital, thereby increasing R&D investment, rather than by increasing risk-taking.

Dead end ahead? How phase-out policies affect incumbent adaptation to technological change in the automotive industry

Research Policy 2026 open access
This study shows how phase-out policies drive and support the adaptation of incumbent firms to technological change, drawing on evidence from the European automotive industry. Recent years have seen growing interest among academics and practitioners in policies aimed at phasing out unsustainable technologies. However, their implementation remains controversial because the effects on key actors—such as incumbent firms—remain poorly understood. To shed more light on this timely question, we conducted a qualitative case study to analyze how the recent EU-level decision effectively banning new registrations of internal combustion engine vehicles beginning in 2035 affects incumbent carmakers in their adaptation to technological change. We offer insights into the causal mechanisms through which phase-out policies affect incumbent adaptation and show how firm-level factors shape policy effectiveness. We demonstrate that phase-out policies can drive incumbent adaptation by redirecting attention, excluding technology trajectories, clarifying forecasts, and facilitating ecosystem coordination. This implies that such policies can effectively accelerate transitions and are less detrimental to incumbents than is often assumed. In fact, these measures represent an effective means of overcoming multiple internal and external sources of inertia, increasing incumbents’ likelihood of surviving technological change. However, firm-level factors—such as progress in adaptation, the coverage of heterogeneous markets, and perceived policy credibility—are both critical to policy effectiveness and linked to incumbents’ political interests and activities. In this regard, policymakers should take particular care in designing phase-out and complementary policies to ensure high credibility and to mitigate political resistance from incumbents.

Chasing ratings, losing impact: The effects of journal lists on publication patterns in business and management

Research Policy 2026 open access
The quality of research papers in business and management is frequently assessed in an automated fashion according to the rating of the journals in which they are published. Using a very large sample of research spanning all fields in business and management studies, we examine the extent to which the prevalence of country-specific journal ratings lists leads authors to focus on ratings, potentially at the expense of the academic influence and article fit of the resulting publication. We find that authors based in the UK or Australia publish disproportionately frequently in journals that have low impact factors within ratings categories measured using their country’s journal lists. We argue that such outcomes could have arisen in contexts where measured research performance is prioritised alongside publication in less competitive outlets. We show that this success is on average achieved at the expense of both fit to the journal and citations, which are sacrificed by publishing in lower-impact, higher-rated journals. We find no evidence, however, that work by Australian or UK authors who publish away from their core fields appears in higher rated journals. • Authors tend to publish in low-impact journals favoured by national rating lists. • Early-career researchers are more influenced by national journal lists. • Achieving high ratings on relevant national lists reduces fit and citations. • Higher-rated publications are not achieved by going outside authors’ home fields.

Distinguishing hares and tortoises in the field: Applicants' prediction of patent value flows

Research Policy 2026 open access
Applicants can predict before filing whether an invention will generate high early value flows, even within narrow technical fields. For United States patents with “priority” Chinese applications, an applicant's choice of Chinese utility model, granted faster but with shorter life than an invention patent, is a significant predictor of early value flow, as proxied by early post-grant citations. In our sample of Chinese - U.S. patent dyads, prior utility model choice significantly positively predicts four proxies for private value of the subsequent US patent: total forward citations, stock market value estimate at grant, litigation and reassignments, but also fewer patent renewals. Higher predicted patent value does not imply more persistent private value flow, falsifying an assumption crucial for estimation of substantial “option value” from patent renewal fees.