Knowledge that Transforms

This paper argues that firms in certain life cycle stages may be more subjectively valued by individual investors, leading to an optimistic bias in stock prices that is subsequently corrected upon the release of earnings news. Using a cash flow-based life cycle stage classification, introduction and decline stage companies exhibit three-day cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) around earnings announcements that are at least 112 bps lower than firms in growth, maturity, and shake-out stages. Specifically, introduction and decline stage stocks exhibit less positive reactions to positive earnings surprises and more negative reactions to negative earnings surprises relative to companies in other life cycle stages. Lottery stocks’ excess returns around earnings announcements (Liu et al. in Journal of Financial Economics 138: 789–817, 2020 ) also vary based on firm life cycle stage. Our findings suggest that individual investors’ optimistic expectations for introduction and decline stage stocks are met with disappointment when value-relevant earnings news is released. This study demonstrates that firm life cycle stage has real implications for stock price reactions to earnings announcements.

The sudden and exogenous nature of the COVID-19 crash provides a unique identification opportunity to study insiders’ informational advantages. We find that the sales of insiders at firms with connections to China were significantly more profitable during the COVID-19 crisis than the sales of insiders at firms without connections to China. Consistent with greater attentiveness to public information about the COVID-19 pandemic, this result is driven by China connected insiders executing larger (smaller) sales in the early (late) COVID-19 period than non–China connected insiders. We find our results are driven by trades that are not preplanned under Rule 10b5–1 and are consistent with anticipation of the systematic market effects of COVID-19 on an insider’s firm as opposed to firm-specific effects. Aggregate China connected insider trades also predict market returns during the COVID-19 period. Our study contributes to the insider trading literature by introducing geographic connection to market-wide information as a source of public information advantage and to regulatory efforts to investigate and understand corporate insider behavior related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tax audits are a necessary component of the tax system, but policymakers and others have expressed concerns about their potentially adverse real effects. Understanding the causal effects of tax audits has been hampered by lack of data and because typically tax audits are not randomly assigned. We use administrative data from random tax audits of small businesses to examine the real effects of being subject to a tax audit. We find that audited firms are more likely to go out of business following the audit. The effect is concentrated in firms that underreport their taxes, although we find some evidence that the administrative costs of an audit also negatively affect firm survival. Among firms that continue as going concerns, we find evidence that audits have adverse effects on future revenues but no effect on future wages, employment, or investment. Finally, we find that tax audits have side benefits, causing firms to make changes to improve their tax efficiency.

This paper provides an overview of valuation multiples in mergers and acquisitions advisory. I review the literature and legal controversies and the theoretical basis for their role. I then standardize all the advisor multiples available in SDC Platinum along four dimensions and report rich descriptive statistics on each dimension over time and across industries. I highlight eight findings that are notable in light of current knowledge and debates. This paper answers the call from Gow et al. (Journal of Accounting Research 54(2):477–523, 2016) for thorough descriptive research, to provide a foundation and prompts for future hypothesis development. It includes an explicit guide for using this data, an overview of the key institutional details, and a discussion of tractable and open research questions.

Empirical studies on the relationship between shareholder litigation and corporate disclosure obtain mixed results. We develop an economic model to capture the endogeneity between disclosure and litigation. Equilibrium disclosure is determined by two countervailing effects of litigation, a deterrence effect and an insurance effect. We derive four key results. (i) Decreasing litigation risk leads to less disclosure of very bad news, due to a weakening of the deterrence effect, but to more disclosure of weakly bad news, due to a weakening of the insurance effect. (ii) Given a sufficiently large information asymmetry, litigation risk dampens (boosts) overall disclosure of bad news for low (high) litigation risk firms. (iii) Capital markets respond more to the disclosure of bad news than of good news if the deterrence effect is strong, which arises if both insiders’ penalties and litigation risk are high. (iv) In an extension, we highlight real effects of litigation on corporate innovation and establish that innovation first decreases and then increases (strictly decreases) with litigation risk if insiders’ penalties are small (large). We reconcile our findings with results from a large set of U.S.-based empirical studies and make several novel predictions.