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The Role of Analysts? Forecasts in Accounting-Based Valuation: A Critical Evaluation
This paper critically evaluates the use of analysts’ forecasts in accounting-based valuation. Specifically, I assess the usefulness and the limitation of analysts’ forecasts in predicting future earnings and in explaining the market-to-book ratio, in light of a comprehensive set of 22 explicit information items, including: economic rent proxies, conservative accounting proxies, earnings quality signals, transitory earnings proxies, industry characteristics, and risk and growth proxies. While analysts’ forecasts capture 45–83% of the information from these sources depending on model specifications, they do not appear to fully incorporate certain information items. In particular, proxies for conservative accounting and transitory earnings are incrementally useful in predicting future earnings; proxies for economic rents, conservative accounting, and risk are incrementally useful in explaining the market-to-book ratio. Collectively, these results validate the use of analysts’ forecasts as a parsimonious proxy for forward-looking information in accounting-based valuation and suggest how to improve on their use.
A potential benefit of increasing book–tax conformity: evidence from the reduction in audit fees
Does the market overweight imprecise information? Evidence from customer earnings announcements
Corporate stakeholders and CEO-worker pay gap: evidence from CEO pay ratio disclosure
Attention to detail: how do information users process exhibits in Form 10-K?
Form 10-K offers a setting for studying how users process complex, multi-layered disclosures: managerial narratives in the main file alongside separate exhibits, such as contracts and certifications, that provide unfiltered detail. Drawing on rational inattention theory, we investigate how users allocate limited attention across these components. Users typically begin with the main file and selectively access exhibits when the main file appears shorter, less readable, or less confident, indicating higher perceived information loss. This pattern strengthens for exhibits that offer more detail on topics discussed in the main file and among institutional investors and time-constrained users. Exhibit access persists beyond the initial filing window and increases around subsequent firm events, especially when external monitoring strengthens and event-related information asymmetry grows. Collectively, our findings underscore the active, discerning nature of user attention in navigating multi-layered disclosures and reveal the often-overlooked informational value of exhibits in Form 10-K.
The role of equity underwriters in shaping corporate disclosure
Analyst forecasts: sales and profit margins
Does increased board independence reduce earnings management? Evidence from recent regulatory reforms
We examine whether recent regulatory reforms requiring majority board independence reduce the extent of earnings management. Firms that did not have a majority of independent directors before the reforms (referred to as noncompliant firms) are required to increase their board independence. We find that, while noncompliant firms on average do not experience a significant decrease in earnings management after the reforms compared to other firms, noncompliant firms with low information acquisition cost experience a significant reduction in earnings management. The results are similar when we examine audit committee independence and when we use alternative proxies for information acquisition cost and earnings management. These findings indicate that independent directors’ monitoring is more effective in a richer information environment.