We examine the predictive information content of the management forecasts of stock return volatility (i.e., expected volatility) that are disclosed in annual reports. We find that expected volatility predicts near-term and longer-term stock return volatility and earnings volatility incremental to implied volatility, historical volatility, firm characteristics, and alternative measures of uncertainty. We also find that expected volatility reflects managers’ private information about their firms’ future investment activities, such as mergers and acquisitions and R&D intensity. Finally, we find that the predictive power of expected volatility shrinks when managers have stronger incentives to manage earnings. Overall, we provide novel evidence that management forecasts of volatility contain private information about future uncertainty that can help forecast volatility.

We examine how adverse selection problems when hiring new external CEOs affect contractual features of inducement grants. Focusing on the sensitivity of inducement grants to the new CEO announcement return ($ Sensitivity ), we find that firms provide inducement grants that are more sensitive to the new CEO announcement return when information asymmetry about the new CEO is more severe and the costs of adverse selection problems are higher. We also find a positive relation between the market reaction to the appointment and $ Sensitivity . We consider factors that reduce information asymmetry (e.g., engaging a search firm or appointing internal CEOs) and find they are associated with lower sensitivity of the inducement grant to the announcement.