Knowledge that Transforms

This article assesses the long-run effects of the 1989 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement on the Canadian labour market using matched longitudinal administrative data for the years 1984–2004. We simultaneously examine the labour market effects of increased export expansion and import competition, generally finding adverse effects of Canadian tariff cuts and favourable effects of U.S. cuts, though both effects are small. Workers initially employed in industries that experienced larger Canadian tariff concessions exhibit a heightened probability of layoffs at large firms, but little impact on long-run cumulative earnings. Lower earnings and years worked at the initial employer are offset by gains in other manufacturing industries, construction, and services. Canadian workers quickly transitioned out of industries facing import competition, with the bilateral nature of the FTA providing import-competing workers employment options in alternative manufacturing industries benefiting from larger U.S. tariff cuts.

We develop a dynamic contracting theory of asset- and cash flow-based financing that demonstrates how firm, intermediary, and capital market characteristics jointly shape firms’ financing constraints. A firm with imperfect access to equity financing covers financing needs through costly sources: an intermediary and retained cash. The firm’s financing capacity is endogenously determined by either the liquidation value of assets (asset-based) or the intermediary’s going-concern valuation of the firm’s cash flows (cash flow-based). The optimal contract is implemented with defaultable debt—specifically unsecured credit lines and senior-secured debt—and features risk-sharing via bankruptcy. When the firm does well, it repays its debt in full. When it does poorly, distress resolution mirrors U.S. bankruptcy procedures (Chapters 7 and 11). Secured and unsecured debt are complements because risk-sharing via unsecured debt increases secured debt capacity. Debt and equity are dynamic complements because future access to equity financing increases current debt capacity.

Bridges are critical but sparse links in land transport networks. I exploit quasi-experimental variation in bridge construction over major rivers in the U.S. to measure the causal effects of land transport infrastructure. Bridges are more often built upstream than downstream of tributary confluences—where smaller rivers join larger rivers—generating local differences in connectivity. Local connectivity advantages have negative effects on per capita income. In contrast, more substantial changes in connectivity arising from the opening of major bridges increase per capita economic activity. A narrative explanation that can reconcile both results is that land transport infrastructure creates productivity advantages that drive economic growth, structural transformation, and urbanization over large spatial scales, but local sorting within the cities that form around early transport routes then reverses this gradient over smaller spatial scales.

The information banks produce drives their lending decisions and macroeconomic outcomes, but this information is inherently difficult to analyse because it is private. We construct a novel measure of bank information quality from confidential regulatory data that include banks’ private risk assessments for US corporate loans. Information quality improves as local economic conditions deteriorate, particularly for new loans, large loans, and loans with higher expected losses. Information quality also declines during periods of rapid local house price appreciation. Our results provide empirical support for theories of countercyclical information production in credit markets.

Complementarities between partners’ characteristics are often held responsible for the patterns of assortative mating observed in marriage markets along different dimensions, such as race and education. However, when the marriage market is segmented into racially and educationally homogeneous clusters, people naturally have more match opportunities with their likes. In this paper, we build an empirically tractable dynamic matching model with endogenous separation and remarriage. In every period, agents participate in a competitive matching game with transferable utility, where mating strategies depend on both the expected match gains and search frictions in the form of meeting costs. We leverage panel data on the duration of both non-cohabiting and cohabiting relationships to jointly estimate both determinants of assortative mating with a nationally representative sample of the U.S. population. We show that, in the absence of search frictions, the share of matches between people of the same race (education) would decrease from 88.2% (49.2%) to 55.5% (40.8%), as opposed to 53.3% (33.5%) if singles were randomly matched. As a result, search frictions explain nearly all the racial homogamy observed in the data, but only approximately half of the observed educational homogamy, with the other half attributed to match complementarities. In a counterfactual exercise, we show that minority groups experiencing an unfavourable gender ratio when marriage markets are segmented, such as Hispanic men and Black women, would benefit from access to a broader and more diverse pool of partners.

I introduce a generic method for inference about a scalar parameter in research designs with a finite number of heterogeneous clusters where only a single cluster received treatment. This situation is commonplace in difference-in-differences estimation, but the test developed here applies more broadly. I show that the test controls size and has power under asymptotics where the number of observations within each cluster is large but the number of clusters is fixed. The test combines weighted, approximately Gaussian parameter estimates with a rearrangement procedure to obtain its critical values. The weights needed for most empirically relevant situations are tabulated in the paper. Calculation of the critical values is computationally simple and does not require simulation or resampling. The rearrangement test is highly robust to situations where some clusters are much more variable than others. Examples and an empirical application are provided.

This paper proposes that strong institutions provide comparative advantage in clean industries, and thereby improve a country’s environmental quality. I study financial, judicial, and labour market institutions. Five complementary tests evaluate and assess implications of this hypothesis. First, industries that depend on institutions are clean. Second, strong institutions increase relative exports in clean industries. Third, an industry’s complexity helps explain the link between institutions and clean goods. Fourth, cross-country differences in the composition of output between clean and dirty industries explain an important share of the global distribution of emissions. Fifth, a quantitative general equilibrium model indicates that strengthening a country’s institutions decreases its pollution through relocating dirty industries abroad, though increases pollution in other countries. The comparative advantage that strong institutions provide in clean industries gives one under-explored reason why developing countries have relatively high pollution levels.

We estimate impacts of male job loss, female job loss, and male unemployment benefits on domestic violence (DV) in Brazil. We merge individual-level employment and welfare registers with different measures of DV: judicial cases brought to criminal courts, the use of public shelters by victims, and mandatory DV notifications by health providers. Leveraging mass layoffs for identification, we first show that both male and female job loss, independently, lead to large, and pervasive increases in DV. Using a regression discontinuity design, we then show that access to unemployment benefits does not reduce DV while benefits are being paid, and it leads to higher DV risk once benefits expire. Our findings can be explained by the negative income shock brought by job loss and by increased exposure of victims to perpetrators, as partners tend to spend more time together after displacement. Although unemployment benefits partially offset the income drop following job loss, they reinforce the exposure shock as they increase unemployment duration. Since our results cannot be explained by prominent DV theories, we propose a simple model formalizing these mechanisms.

Diversity can pose fundamental challenges to state building and development. The Tanzanian Ujamaa policy—one of post-colonial Africa’s largest state-building experiments—addressed these challenges by resettling a diverse population in planned villages, where children received political education. We combine differences in exposure to Ujamaa across space and age to identify long-term impacts of the policy. Analysis of contemporary surveys shows persistent, positive effects on national identity and perceived state legitimacy. Our preferred interpretation, supported by evidence that considers alternative hypotheses, is that changes to educational content drive our results. Our findings also point to trade-offs associated with state building: while the policy contributed to establishing the new state as a legitimate central authority, exposure to Ujamaa lowered demands for democratic accountability and did not increase generalized inter-ethnic trust.

Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate of the correlation structure of the empirical moments, which is often unavailable in practice. Instead, the variances of the individual empirical moments are usually readily estimable. Using only these variances, we derive conservative standard errors and confidence intervals for the structural parameters that are valid even under the worst-case correlation structure. In the over-identified case, we show that the moment weighting scheme that minimizes the worst-case estimator variance amounts to a moment selection problem with a simple solution. Finally, we develop tests of over-identifying or parameter restrictions. We apply our methods empirically to a model of menu cost pricing for multi-product firms and to a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model.