Knowledge that Transforms

We present a model of oligopolistic commodity speculation, in which a limited number of speculators practice non-cooperative storage in an infinite-horizon game. A significant technical difficulty due to the non-negative stock constraint is overcome, and a tractable sub-game perfect equilibrium is presented, in which it is shown that less is stored and prices are more volatile than under perfect competition. It turns out that a tax on consumption of the good would increase storage, stabilize prices, increase welfare and raise speculative profits; the oligopolists would thus lobby for a tariff raised against their own shipments.

We examine the proposition that competitive firms must behave as if they were maximizing profits; otherwise they would go bankrupt, or even fail to be financed in a competitive capital market. We investigate a model in which an entrepreneur raises funds for a risky enterprise on a competitive capital market, by offering a “dividend policy” based on the realized (stochastic) flow of earnings. We show that an entrepreneur who maximizes the expected sum of discounted dividends is sure to fail in finite time. On the other hand, many other behaviours yield positive expected profits and are able to attract investment funds, and yet result in a positive probability of surviving forever. As a consequence, if new firms have sufficiently diverse behaviours, then even if there is a constant stream of new entrants, after a long time practically all of the surviving firms will not have been maximizing profits.

“… I suppose there exists an extremely powerful, and, if I may so speak, malignant being, whose whole endeavours are directed toward deceiving me.” Rene Descartes, Meditations, II.1

We compare the performance of markets and tournaments as allocative mechanisms in an economy with borrowing constraints. The economy consists of a continuum of individuals who differ in their initial wealth and ability level. These must be assigned to a continuum of investment opportunities or inputs of different productivity. With perfect capital markets matching is efficient under both mechanisms. Markets, however, generate higher aggregate consumption because of the waste associated with the production of signals under tournaments. When borrowing constraints are present, tournaments dominate markets in terms of matching efficiency and, for sufficiently powerful signalling technologies, also in terms of aggregate consumption.

In the last few years, a new area has emerged in economic theory, which goes under the heading of 'incomplete contracting'. However, almost since its inception, the theory has been under attack for its lack of rigorous foundations. In this paper we evaluate some of the criticisms that have been made of the theory, in particular, those in Maskin and Tirole (1998a). In doing so, we develop a model that provides a rigorous foundation for the idea that contracts are incomplete.

This paper studies a dynamic model of a financial market with N strategic agents. Agents receive random stock endowments at each period and trade to share dividend risk. Endowments are the only private information in the model. We find that agents trade slowly even when the time between trades goes to 0. In fact, welfare loss due to strategic behaviour increases as the time between trades decreases. In the limit when the time between trades goes to 0, welfare loss is of order 1/N, and not 1/N2 as in the static models of the double auctions literature. The model is very tractable and closed-form solutions are obtained in a special case.

This paper analyses the equilibrium dynamics of an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital in which leisure enters the utility function. The inclusion of leisure introduces a potential source of non-convexities in our optimization problem and leads to the possible existence of multiple balanced growth paths. This multiplicity of optimal stationary solutions is linked to the assumption that education has no effect on the quality of leisure, and hence a relatively more educated economy may choose to grow faster, and devote more time to income-directed activities. To characterize the set of optimal solutions in our non-concave optimization framework we develop a new method of analysis that should be of interest in related applications.

The paper studies how a person's concern for a future career may influence his or her incentives to put in effort or make decisions on the job. In the model, the person's productive abilities are revealed over time through observations of performance. There are no explicit output-contingent contracts, but since the wage in each period is based on expected output and expected output depends on assessed ability, an “implicit contract” links today's performance to future wages. An incentive problem arises from the person's ability and desire to influence the learning process, and therefore the wage process, by taking unobserved actions that affect today's performance. The fundamental incongruity in preferences is between the individual's concern for human capital returns and the firm's concern for financial returns. The two need be only weakly related. It is shown that career motives can be beneficial as well as detrimental, depending on how well the two kinds of capital returns are aligned.