We study the labour market effects of permanent 30%–64% reductions on unemployment insurance benefits available in seven states. Leveraging linked firm-establishment data, we find that establishments based on reform states experience employment increases that are 0.8%–1.3% larger than those of the same firm’s establishments in other states. Using a similar multi-state firm design, starting salaries are 1.2%–5.5% lower in reform states and posted salaries for the same job fall by 3.2%–3.5%. The negative co-movement of employment and wages after the reform suggests a labour supply shock and mitigates against confounding changes in labour demand driving the results. Our findings are consistent with workers lowering their reservation wages as outside options fall, and employers take advantage of this by offering lower wages and increasing employment.

International financial integration helps to diversify risk but also may spread crises across countries. We provide a quantitative analysis of this trade-off in a two-country general equilibrium model with collateral-constrained borrowing using a global solution method. Borrowing constraints bind occasionally, depending upon the state of the economy and levels of inherited debt. We examine different degrees of international financial integration, moving from financial autarky, to bond and equity market integration. Financial integration leads to a significant increase in global leverage, substantially escalates the probability of crises for any one country, and dramatically increases the degree of “contagion” across countries. Outside of crises, the impact of financial integration on macroeconomic aggregates is relatively small. But the impact of a crisis with integrated international financial markets is much less severe than that under financial market autarky. Thus, a trade-off emerges between the probability of crises and the severity of crises. Using a large cross-country database of financial crises in developing and developed economies over a forty-year period, we find evidence in support of the model.

Kernel-based estimators such as local polynomial estimators in regression discontinuity designs are often evaluated at multiple bandwidths as a form of sensitivity analysis. However, if in the reported results, a researcher selects the bandwidth based on this analysis, the associated confidence intervals may not have correct coverage, even if the estimator is unbiased. This paper proposes a simple adjustment that gives correct coverage in such situations: replace the normal quantile with a critical value that depends only on the kernel and ratio of the maximum and minimum bandwidths the researcher has entertained. We tabulate these critical values and quantify the loss in coverage for conventional confidence intervals. For a range of relevant cases, a conventional 95% confidence interval has coverage between 70% and 90%, and our adjustment amounts to replacing the conventional critical value 1.96 with a number between 2.2 and 2.8. Our results also apply to other settings involving trimmed data, such as trimming to ensure overlap in treatment effect estimation. We illustrate our approach with three empirical applications.

Whether campaign advertising influences election outcomes is an open question; a paradox given the amount spent on campaigning in general and TV advertising in particular. We argue that such “absence of documentation” is due to the focus of the empirical literature on the United States, in which the allocation of campaign spending and advertising is decentralized. We explore a quasinatural experiment that enables us to mitigate the omitted variables and reverse causality problems caused by decentralized allocation. In Brazil, gubernatorial elections work in a two-round system. In the first round, candidates’ TV time shares are determined by their coalitions’ share of seats in the National Parliament. In the second round, TV time is split equally between the first-round winner and runner-up. Using differences between rounds as a source of variation, we find a large causal effect of TV advertising on election outcomes.

We consider the properties of equilibrium behaviour in an aggregative growth model with intergenerational altruism. Various positive properties such as the cyclicity of equilibrium programs, and the convergence of equilibrium stocks to a steady state, are analyzed. Among other normative properties, it is established that under certain natural conditions, Nash equilibrium programs are efficient and “modified Pareto optimal” in a sense made clear in the paper, but never Pareto optimal in the traditional sense.

Strotz (1956) and Pollak (1968) were among the first to study the behaviour of an economic agent whose preferences change over time. They suggested that such an agent would choose a “consistent plan” which they described as “the best plan that he would actually follow”. A Markov-consistent plan has a particularly simple structure: current decisions are independent of past decisions, except insofar as past decisions affect the current values of state variables. Unfortunately, Markov-consistent plans do not generally exist. In this paper, we demonstrate that the existence problem dissappears for finite horizon problems when one introduces even a small amount of smooth uncertainty into production.

This paper brings some empirical evidence to the construction of a more disaggregated view of disequilibrium. Individual data on firms collected by INSEE through periodic Business Surveys are used to construct the distribution of firms over the four possible disequilibrium regimes. Then the behavior of this distribution over time is analyzed by estimating dynamic conditional logit models on panel data.

A consumer faces list prices for commodities, but can buy one at a discount. Discounts vary randomly between sellers. The number of quotations sought depends on list prices, search costs and wealth. This function is homogeneous of degree zero, and, provided some sufficient conditions are satisfied, is; increasing in wealth; decreasing in search cost; independent of the list price of the discounted commodity if indirect utility is multiplicatively separable; increasing in the list price if the commodity is a necessity; increasing in the list price of substitutes. Slutsky's equation is generalized to include search.

The literature on inequality measurement has been largely concerned with single-dimensioned indicators. This paper explores some of the issues which arise when there are several dimensions to inequality, and these are not readily reduced to a single index, concentrating particularly on the two-dimensioned case. We make use of results on multi-variate stochastic dominance in portfolio theory, extending these and applying them to the measurement of inequality. The use of the dominance conditions is illustrated by an application to the international distribution of income and life expectancy.

Peter B. Dixon, Constantino Lluch; Durable Goods in the Extended Linear Expenditure System, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 44, Issue 2, 1 June 1977, Pag