Journal Article Algorithms for Social Choice Functions Get access Donald E. Campbell Donald E. Campbell Ontario Economic Council and University of Toronto Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 47, Issue 3, April 1980, Pages 617–627, https://doi.org/10.2307/2297312 Published: 01 April 1980 Article history Received: 01 June 1977 Accepted: 01 April 1979 Published: 01 April 1980

Journal Article A General Equilibrium Analysis of Trade Creating Customs Unions Get access Donald M. Chaffee, Jr Donald M. Chaffee, Jr San Francisco State University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 42, Issue 2, April 1975, Pages 279–284, https://doi.org/10.2307/2296535 Published: 01 April 1975

In this note we introduce a weak optimality condition for tests, called complete consistency. We argue that complete consistency is a more appropriate weak optimality condition for tests than is test consistency. Complete consistency is a testing analogue of estimator consistency. It is shown that a sequence of estimators is consistent, if and only if certain tests based on the estimators (such as Wald or likelihood ratio tests) are completely consistent, for all simple null hypotheses. The above notwithstanding, the relationship between consistent and completely consistent tests shows that test consistency is a relevant concept. Consistent tests can be used to show the existence of, and to construct, completely consistent tests. Further, completely consistent tests cannot be generated from nested families of inconsistent tests.

How do regional productivity shocks or transportation infrastructure improvements affect aggregate welfare? In a general class of spatial equilibrium models, we provide a formula for aggregate welfare changes, decomposed into terms associated with (i) technology [Fogel (1964), Railroads and American Economic Growth (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press), Hulten (1978) “Growth Accounting with Intermediate Inputs”, The Review of Economic Studies, 45, 511–518], (ii) spatial dispersion of marginal utility, (iii) fiscal externalities, (iv) technological externalities, and (v) redistribution. We further use this decomposition to derive a general formula for optimal spatial transfers and show that, whenever optimal transfers are in place, the technology term alone captures the aggregate welfare effects of technological shocks. We apply our framework to study welfare gains from improving the US highway network. We find that changes in the spatial dispersion of marginal utility are as important as technological externalities in accounting for the deviations from the Fogel-Hulten benchmark to assess welfare gains.

This paper is concerned with possible model misspecification in moment inequality models. Two issues are addressed. First, standard tests and confidence sets for the true parameter in the moment inequality literature are not robust to model misspecification in the sense that they exhibit spurious precision when the identified set is empty. This paper introduces tests and confidence sets that provide correct asymptotic inference for a pseudo-true parameter in such scenarios, and hence, do not suffer from spurious precision. Second, specification tests have relatively low power against a range of misspecified models. Thus, failure to reject the null of correct specification does not necessarily provide evidence of correct specification. That is, model specification tests are subject to the problem that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. This paper develops new diagnostics for model misspecification in moment inequality models that do not suffer from this problem.

This paper considers an alternative asymptotic framework to standard sequential asymptotics for nonlinear models with deterministically trending variables. The asymptotic distributions of generalized method of moments estimators and corresponding test statistics are derived using this framework. The asymptotic distributions are shown to be the same with deterministically trending variables as with non-trending variables. That is, the distributions are normal and chi-squared respectively. The asymptotic covariance matrices of the estimators, however, are found to depend on the form of the trends. These findings provide a justification for the use of standard asymptotic approximations in nonlinear models even when the variables have deterministic trends.

This paper provides a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for the intercept of a semiparametrically estimated sample selection model. The estimator uses a decreasingly small fraction of all observations as the sample size goes to infinity, as in Heckman (1990). In the semiparametrics literature, estimation of the intercept has typically been subsumed in the nonparametric sample selection bias correction term. The estimation of the intercept, however, is important from an economic perspective. For instance, it permits one to determine the “wage gap” between unionized and nonunionized workers, decompose the wage differential between different socioeconomic groups (e.g. male-female and black-white), and evaluate the net benefits of a social programme.

This paper develops a framework for a general equilibrium analysis of asset markets when the number of assets is infinite. Such markets have been studied in the context of asset pricing theories. Our main results concern the existence of an equilibrium. We show that an equilibrium exists if there is a price system under which no investor has an arbitrage opportunity. A similar result has been previously known to hold in finite asset markets. Our extension to infinite assets involves a concept of an arbitrage opportunity which is different from the one used in finite markets. An arbitrage opportunity in finite asset markets is a portfolio that guarantees non-negative payoff in every event, positive payoff in some event, and has zero price. For the case of infinite asset markets, we introduce a concept of sequential arbitrage opportunity which is a sequence of portfolios which increases an investor's utility indefinitely and has zero price in the limit. We show that a sequential arbitrage opportunity and an arbitrage portfolio are equivalent concepts in finite markets but not in their infinite counterpart.

This paper extends the classical test for structural change in linear regression models (see Chow (1960)) to a wide variety of nonlinear models, estimated by a variety of different procedures. Wald, Lagrange multiplier-like, and likelihood ratio-like test statistics are introduced. The results allow for heterogeneity and temporal dependence of the observations. In the process of developing the above tests, the paper also provides a compact presentation of general unifying results for estimation and testing in nonlinear parametric econometric models.

We construct a tractable, flexible-functional-form estimator of cumulative distribution functions for non-negative random variables which admits large numbers of covariates. The estimator adopts and extends techniques from the spell-duration literature for estimating hazard functions to distribution functions for wages, earnings, and income. We apply these methods to investigate sources of wage inequality for full-time male workers between Canada and the United States, finding that the Canadian wage density has a thinner left tail because low-educated workers have higher pay and a thinner right tail because of a lower proportion of highly-educated workers. Unions appear to play a large role in these outcomes.