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Understanding the City Size Wage Gap

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(1), 88-127 open access
In this paper, we decompose city size wage premia into various components. We base these decompositions on an estimated on-the-job search model that incorporates latent ability, search frictions, firm-worker match quality, human capital accumulation and endogenous migration between large, medium and small cities. Counterfactual simulations of the model indicate that variation in returns to experience and differences in wage intercepts across location type are the most important mechanisms contributing to observed city size wage premia. Variation in returns to experience is more important for generating wage premia between large and small locations while differences in wage intercepts are more important for generating wage premia betwen medium and small locations. Sorting on unobserved ability within education group and differences in labor market search frictions and distributions of firm-worker match quality contribute little to observed city size wage premia. These conclusions hold for separate samples of high school and college graduates.

Holdouts in Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Theory of Negotiation in a Weak Contractual Environment

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(2), 812-837
Why is it difficult to restructure sovereign debt in a timely manner? In this paper, we present a theory of the sovereign debt-restructuring process in which delay arises as individual creditors hold up a settlement in order to extract greater payments from the sovereign. We then use the theory to analyse recent policy proposals aimed at ensuring equal repayment of creditor claims. Strikingly, we show that such collective action policies may increase delay by encouraging free riding on negotiation costs, even while preventing hold-up and reducing total negotiation costs. A calibrated version of the model can account for observed delays and finds that free riding is quantitatively relevant: whereas in simple low-cost debt-restructuring operations, collective mechanisms will reduce delay by more than 60%, in high-cost complicated restructurings, the adoption of such mechanisms results in a doubling of delay.

Intertemporal Distortions in the Second Best

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(4), 1271-1307
This paper studies the long-run properties of intertemporal distortions in a broad class of second-best economies. Our unified framework encompasses and extends many well-known models, such as variants of the Ramsey taxation model with aggregate or idiosyncratic risk, and economies with incentive compatibility constraints due to limited commitment, political economy, self-enforcement or private information, or combinations of these. We identify a sufficient condition that rules out permanent intertemporal distortions: if there exists an allocation that satisfies all constraints and eventually converges to the limiting first-best allocation, then intertemporal distortions are temporary in the second best. This result uncovers a common optimality principle linking the intertemporal allocation of resources with the ability to front-load distortions for this broad class of environments. A series of applications illustrates the significance of these findings.

Trade, Firms, and Wages: Theory and Evidence

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(1), 1-36 open access
How does trade liberalization affect wages? This is the first paper to consider in theory and data how the impact of final and intermediate input tariff cuts on workers' wages varies with the global engagement of their firm. Our model predicts that a fall in output tariffs lowers wages at import-competing firms, but boosts wages at exporting firms. Similarly, a fall in input tariffs raises wages at import-using firms relative to those at firms that only source locally. Using highly detailed Indonesian manufacturing census data for the period 1991 to 2000, we find considerable support for the model's predictions.

Information, Liquidity, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(3), 1209-1238
What determines which assets are used in transactions? We develop a framework where the extent to which assets are recognizable determines the extent to which they are acceptable in exchange—i.e. it determines their liquidity. Recognizability and liquidity are endogenized by allowing agents to invest in information. We analyse the effects of monetary policy. There can be multiple equilibria, with different transaction patterns, and these patterns are not invariant to policy. We show that small changes in information may generate large responses in asset prices, allocations, and welfare. We also discuss some issues in international economics, including exchange rates and dollarization.

Employment, Hours of Work and the Optimal Taxation of Low-Income Families

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(2), 481-510 open access
The optimal design of low-income support is examined using a structural labour supply model. The approach incorporates unobserved heterogeneity, fixed costs of work, childcare costs and the detailed non-convexities of the tax and transfer system. The analysis considers purely Pareto improving reforms and also optimal design under social welfare functions with different degrees of inequality aversion. We explore the gains from tagging and also examine the case for the use of hours-contingent payments. Using the tax schedule for lone parents in the U.K. as our policy environment, the results point to a reformed non-linear tax schedule with tax credits only optimal for low earners. The results also suggest a welfare improving role for tagging according to child age and for hours-contingent payments, although the case for the latter is mitigated when hours cannot be monitored or recorded accurately by the tax authorities.

Communication and Learning

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(2), 419-450 open access
We study strategic information transmission in an organization consisting of an infinite sequence of individual decision-makers. Each decision-maker chooses an action and receives an informative but imperfect signal of the once-and-for-all realization of an unobserved state. The state affects all individuals' preferences over present and future decisions. Decision-makers do not directly observe the realized signals or actions of their predecessors. Instead, they must rely on cheap-talk messages in order to accumulate information about the state. Each decision-maker is therefore both a receiver of information with respect to his decision and a sender with respect to all future decisions. We show that if preferences are not perfectly aligned, “full learning” equilibria—ones in which the individuals' posterior beliefs eventually place full weight on the true state—do not exist. This is so both in the case of private communication, in which each individual only hears the message of his immediate predecessor, and in the case of public communication, in which a decision-maker hears the message of all his predecessors. Surprisingly, in the latter case full learning may be impossible even in the limit as all members of the organization become perfectly patient. We also consider the case where all individuals have access to a mediator who can work across time periods arbitrarily far apart. In this case, full learning equilibria exist.

A Search-Theoretic Model of the Retail Market for Illicit Drugs

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(3), 1239-1269 open access
A search-theoretic model of the retail market for illegal drugs is developed. Trade occurs in bilateral, potentially long-lived matches between sellers and buyers. Buyers incur search costs when experimenting with a new seller. Moral hazard is present because buyers learn purity only after a trade is made. This model is consistent with some new stylized facts about the drugs market, and it is informative for policy design. The effectiveness of different enforcement strategies is evaluated, including some novel ones that leverage the moral hazard present in the market.

Taxation and Household Labour Supply

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(3), 1113-1149
We evaluate reforms to the U.S. tax system in a life cycle set-up with heterogeneous married and single households and with an operative extensive margin in labour supply. We restrict our model with observations on gender and skill premia, labour-force participation of married females across skill groups, children, and the structure of marital sorting. We concentrate on two revenue-neutral tax reforms: a proportional income tax and a reform in which married individuals file taxes separately (separate filing). Our findings indicate that tax reforms are accompanied by large increases in labour supply that differ across demographic groups, with the bulk of the increase coming from married females. Under a proportional income tax reform, married females account for more than 50% of the changes in hours across steady states, while under separate filing reform, married females account for all the change in hours.

Charity as a Substitute for Reputation: Evidence from an Online Marketplace

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(4), 1441-1468
Consumers respond positively to products tied to charity, particularly from sellers that are relatively new and hence have limited alternative means of assuring quality. We establish this result using data from a diverse group of eBay sellers who “experiment” with charity by varying the presence of a donation in a set of otherwise matched product listings. Most of charity's benefits accrue to sellers without extensive eBay histories. Consistent with charity serving as a quality signal, we find fewer customer complaints among charity-intensive sellers.