Knowledge that Transforms

We use an event study approach to estimate the burden of the financial regulations associated with Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) designation. On March 30, 2016, the US District Court determined that MetLife’s SIFI designation was arbitrary and capricious because the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) failed to weigh the economic cost of the financial regulation on MetLife against the benefits of increased financial stability. We find significant positive abnormal returns for MetLife and AIG on the date of the ruling. We estimate that the lifting of the SIFI designation created $1.4 billion in corporate wealth for MetLife, suggesting that MetLife would be 3.4% more profitable as a non-SIFI. These gains fall short of the $8 billion stipulated by MetLife in its complaint. We also find significant abnormal returns to SIFI institutions on the day following the US Presidential election.

This article uses the 2007–09 financial crisis as a negative liquidity shock on banks in the USA and analyzes its transmission to the real economy. The ex ante heterogeneity in the amount of long-term debt that matured during the crisis is used to measure the variation in banks’ exposure to the liquidity shock. I find that banks transmitted the liquidity shock to the real economy by reducing their loan supply. The reduction was particularly strong for real estate loans. As a result, house prices declined in the MSAs where these banks have branches. Bank capital plays a significant role in the transmission: under-capitalized banks transmitted the liquidity shock, whereas well-capitalized banks’ lending did not show any decline.

Using a unique proprietary account-level trading dataset in China, we investigate how active information acquisition alleviates price-based return comovement, a typical anomaly in stock splits. We find that: 1) individual trading drives the comovement and the trading correlation between split stocks and the low-price portfolio increases significantly after splits; 2) individuals can learn the firm fundamentals through information acquisition, which effectively alleviates their categorized bias; and 3) the role of information acquisition is more significant in environments characterized by greater uncertainty. Our results are robust to different specifications and alternative measures. Taken together, this paper emphasizes the important role of information acquisition in alleviating behavioral bias and improving decision-making.

Recent literature suggests that higher capital requirements for banks might lead to a socially costly crowding out of deposits by equity. This paper shows that additional equity in banks can help to crowd in deposits. Intuitively, as banks have more equity and become safer, the cost of deposit funding may decline; this, in turn, can encourage banks to expand their deposits. However, I also find that, for this effect to occur, capital requirements may have to be stringent enough: When bank capital is low, a small rise in capital requirements can cause banks to substitute equity for deposits. Overall, a non-monotonic relationship between the required amount of equity in banks and their level of deposit funding obtains.

We study how renegotiation frictions impact distressed debt resolution and ex-ante financial contracting. We do so by exploiting an event that exogenously reduced the costs that syndicated lenders incur when renegotiating debt out of court, without affecting in-court restructuring costs (IRS Regulation TD9599). CDS contracts insure creditors against in-court bankruptcy losses and CDS spreads reflect the shadow price of bankruptcy risk. Using a triple-differences approach, we show that CDS spreads fell by record figures on the event’s announcement, with declines concentrated among distressed firms that relied most on syndicated loans. Distressed firms’ loan renegotiation rates more than doubled, as banks agreed to extend loan maturities in exchange for higher interest payments. Those firms’ access to new syndicated loans increased while associated interest markups declined.

Since the late 1990s, over 75% of US industries have experienced an increase in concentration levels. We find that firms in industries with the largest increases in product market concentration show higher profit margins and more profitable mergers and acquisitions deals. At the same time, we find no evidence for a significant increase in operational efficiency. Taken together, our results suggest that market power is becoming an important source of value. These findings are robust to the inclusion of (i) private firms; (ii) factors accounting for foreign competition; and (iii) the use of alternative measures of concentration. We also show that the higher profit margins associated with an increase in concentration are reflected in higher returns to shareholders. Overall, our results suggest that the US product markets have undergone a shift that has potentially weakened competition across the majority of industries.

We study the effects of Confucian social norms on savings rates in China. In our simple two-period model, parents have the option to invest in either a risk-free asset or their children’s human capital. We assume that the filial piety norms and thus the enforcement mechanisms for supporting old-age parents differ across regions. Consequently, the probability of children’s non-performance of their repayment obligations to parents and the returns parents can expect from investing in their children vary. We test the model predictions using data from the China Household Finance Survey. We find that stronger Confucian social norms reduce the gap in the savings rate between families with sons and with daughters. Modeling default by children as a function of the prevailing social norms gives us the flexibility to study the impacts of declining Confucian influence on consumption–savings trends in China.

We conduct a series of forecasting experiments to examine how people update their beliefs upon observing others’ forecasts. Subjects exhibit “cursedness,” that is, a propensity to underestimate the link between others’ forecasts and others’ information, which causes subjects to underreact. The behavior of sophisticated subjects is not affected by the framing of information, but unsophisticated subjects switch from underreaction to overreaction when they are only provided qualitative (rather than quantitative) forecast information. Our results have important implications for the way that financial analysts aggregate information and the way that financial institutions present forecasts to their clients.

We show that currency networks in cross-border bank lending have a significant impact on the size, distribution, and direction of international monetary policy spillovers. Utilizing a novel dataset, we map the major currency networks in international banking and show that the US dollar dominates at the global level. Next, we provide evidence that during the 2013 Fed taper tantrum, the degree of exposure to US dollar lending had a significant impact on cross-border bank lending growth. Most notably, it had a strong negative impact on cross-border flows to emerging markets.

Hedge fund activism is associated with improvements in the governance and performance of targeted firms. In this article, we show that these positive effects of activism reach beyond the targets, as nontargeted peers make similar improvements under the threat of activism. Peers with higher threat perception, as measured by director connections to past targets, are more likely to increase leverage and payout, decrease capital expenditures and cash, and improve return on assets and asset turnover. As a result, their valuations improve, and their probability of being targeted declines. Our results are not explained by time-varying industry conditions or competition effects whereby improved targets force their product market rivals to become more competitive.