Knowledge that Transforms

We are delighted to announce that the winner of the 2011 Spängler IQAM Best Paper Prize is: “Operating Leverage” by Robert Novy-Marx, The two runners-up for the award are: “Inside Debt” by Alex Edmans and Qi Liu and “Fear of the Unknown: Familiarity and Economic Decisions” by Henry Cao, Bing Han, David Hirshleifer, and Harold Zhang, The awards were presented at the 2011 annual meeting of the European Finance Association in Stockholm on August 19. We are grateful to Spängler IQAM Invest for sponsoring this award.

We develop a simple theoretical argument that generates testable predictions about how disagreement affects corporate investment and find strong empirical support for these predictions. Investment is negatively related to a proxy for disagreement, after controlling for Tobin’s q, and after dealing with the fact that Tobin’s q and our disagreement proxy contain measurement error. This proxy is unrelated to traditional indicators of asymmetric information. We also find that variation in disagreement is an important component of the portion of the variation in Tobin’s q that matters for investment, and that disagreement affects investment and Tobin’s q more if the firm has greater financial flexibility.

This is the first paper systematically calculating, testing and explaining different definitions of the survivorship bias in fund performance. We document that the survival-performance-relation is stronger for small funds and we find significant under-performance of non-survivors but no significant out-performance of new funds. Survivorship bias is still a problem as well in other fields of research, e.g., in countries where survivorship bias-free data is not available and because certain methods require truncated data. This paper provides guidance on how to deal with and reduce survivorship bias in empirical studies.

This paper studies the life-cycle consumption and portfolio choice problem taking account of annuity risk at retirement. The study allows for government-provided annuity income. Optimally, households allocate retirement wealth to nominal, inflation-linked and variable annuities, and condition this choice on the state of the economy. The case in which there are limitations in the types of annuities that are available is also considered and the costs of annuity market incompleteness are quantified. Subsequently, the paper determines how investors optimally anticipate annuitization before retirement. The conclusion is that ignoring annuity risk before and at retirement can be economically costly.

What determines the yields at which international investors are willing to lend to emerging market countries, and the amounts of such lending? We analyze the motivation underlying investors’ choices in allocating their holdings across countries, through regressions for both prices (bond yields) and quantities (bond market capitalization or stocks of external liabilities) estimated during two waves of financial globalization (1870–1913 and today). The results suggest that, throughout the past one and a half centuries, a combination of human capital (including informal human capital) and institutional quality has been a key determinant of emerging market countries’ ability to attract international investors.

This paper studies asymmetric profitability of the momentum trading strategy. When investors face Knightian uncertainty, they react differently to past winners and losers, which creates asymmetric patterns in price continuations. This asymmetry increases with the level of market and idiosyncratic uncertainty relating to the fundamental value of stocks. We provide a model explaining this phenomenon and empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis. Our results also imply that momentum is more likely to continue for downward trends in a highly uncertain market.

This article investigates the importance of both trust and sociability for stock market participation and for differences in stockholding across Europe. We estimate significant effects for the two, and find that sociability can partly balance the discouragement effect on stockholding induced by low regional prevailing trust. We test for exogeneity of trust and sociability indicators using variation in history of political institutions and in frequency of contacts with grandchildren, respectively. Moreover, the effect of trust is stronger in countries with limited participation and low average trust, offering an explanation for the remarkably low stockholding rates of the wealthy living therein.

We document that the deregulation of bank branching restrictions in the United States triggered a reallocation across sectors, with end effects on state-level volatility. The change cannot be explained simply by shifts in sector-level returns and volatility. A reallocation effect is at play, which we study in the context of mean-variance portfolio theory applied to sectoral returns. We find the reallocation is particularly strong in sectors characterized by young, small and external finance dependent firms, and for states that have a larger share of such sectors. The findings suggest that improving bank access to branching affects the sectoral specialization of output, in a manner that depends on the variance-covariance properties of sectoral returns, rather than on their average only.

A key distinction between some models of IPO pricing (e.g., auctions and bookbuilding) and others (e.g., fixed-priced models) is whether price discovery occurs in the primary or secondary market. Higher investment bank reputation is associated with 1) more active filing price revisions and 2) reduced secondary market volatility, indicating greater resolution of uncertainty before trading begins. Revisions of nonreputable banks cluster on exactly zero dollars. Finally, the “partial adjustment” phenomenon – often attributed to information aggregation – is primarily due to the behavior of reputable underwriters. We conclude that theoretical models of primary market information aggregation are better suited for reputable underwriters.