Knowledge that Transforms

We perform an asset market experiment in order to investigate whether overconfidence induces trading. We investigate three manifestations of overconfidence: calibration-based overconfidence, the better-than-average effect and illusion of control. Novelly, the measure employed for calibration-based overconfidence is task-specific in that it is designed to influence behavior. We find that calibration-based overconfidence does engender additional trade, though the better-than-average also appears to play a role. This is true both at the level of the individual and also at the level of the market. There is little evidence that gender influences trading activity.

We analyze the effects that real-time domestic and foreign news about fundamentals have on the co-movement between stock returns of a small, open economy, Portugal, and a large economy, the United States. Consistent with our theoretical model, we find that US macroeconomic news and Portuguese earnings news do not affect stock market co-movement, whereas Portuguese macroeconomic news lowers stock market co-movement. We find that US news affects Portuguese stock market returns, though less so when US stock market returns are included in the regression. We provide evidence, contrary to common wisdom, that this last result does not derive from contagion.

We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied volatilities of stock and bond options when the economic data is released. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater reduction in implied volatilities following the news release. It is also associated with increased volume and decreased open interest in option markets after the release, consistent with market participants using financial options to hedge or speculate on macroeconomic news.

We consider a pure exchange economy with incomplete information. Some agents display learning bias and over- or under-react to the arrival of new information. We show under which conditions biased agents survive over a finite horizon. We also study the distribution of irrational agents consumption shares. Irrational agents have a signiÞcant consumption share in the economy when (i) shocks are less persistent (ii) risk aversion is high (iii) volatility of aggregate consumption is high. We also show that agents impact on prices is increasing in their consumption share and conclude that biased agents can signiÞcantly influence equilibrium quantities.

I analyze the portfolios of individual investors who have changed their place of residence. As distance from a company they invest in changes, investors adjust their portfolio composition. The farther investors move away from the closest establishment of a company in their portfolio, the more of its shares they sell compared to investors who do not move. Among the companies that investors held before the move, after moving, investors abnormally increase their ownership in companies closer to their new location; these companies provide them with higher risk-adjusted returns than companies in which they kept holdings unchanged or abnormally reduced holdings.

This paper characterizes equilibria in the Shleifer-Vishny model of limits of arbitrage. To prove existence, one has to consider types of equilibria ignored by Shleifer and Vishny, even if one adopts their parameter restrictions. For example, the only equilibrium may be one in which maximization of expected wealth requires an “all-or-nothing” investment strategy, with intermediate investment levels being strictly unprofitable. If one goes beyond Shleifer and Vishny's parameter restrictions, multiple equilibria may arise, and equilibrium selection may be governed by sunspots. Moreover, there may exist an equilibrium in which the asset price returns to fundamentals despite worsening noise trader sentiment.

Operating performance and stock return results imply that managers who commit fraud anticipate large stock price declines if they were to report truthfully, which would cause greater losses for managerial stockholdings than for options because of differences in convexity. Fraud firms have significantly greater incentives from unrestricted stockholdings than control firms do, and unrestricted stockholdings are their largest incentive source. Our results emphasize the importance of the shape and vesting status of incentive payoffs in providing incentives to commit fraud. Fraud firms also have characteristics that suggest a lower likelihood of fraud detection, which implies lower expected costs of fraud.

Most US credit card holders revolve high-interest debt, often with substantial liquid and retirement assets. We model separation of accounting from shopping allowed by credit cards, in a rational, dynamic game. When the shopper is more impatient than the accountant, selling assets to repay debt is not necessarily optimal, as the shopper can restore debt. Modest relative impatience generates asset-debt co-existence and target utilization rates, matching incidence and median assets of debt revolvers with substantial assets. Empirical evidence is consistent with a role for spending control considerations, after allowing for standard determinants of credit card debt.

While the positive growth effects of financial integration are extensively documented, little is known of its impact on small and young firms. This paper aims to fill this void relying on a panel of 60,000 firm-year observations on listed and unlisted companies in Eastern European economies to assess the differential impact of foreign bank lending on firm growth and financing. Foreign lending stimulates growth in firm sales, assets, and use of financial debt even though the effect is dampened for small firms. More strikingly, young firms benefit most from foreign bank presence, while businesses connected to domestic banks or to the government suffer. Overall, our findings suggest that foreign banks can help to mitigate connected-lending problems and to improve capital allocation.

This paper evaluates investment strategies that exploit the deviations from theoretical price parity in a sample of 12 dual-listed companies (DLCs) in the period 1980–2002. We show that simple trading rules produce abnormal returns of up to almost 10% per annum adjusted for systematic risk, transaction costs, and margin requirements. However, arbitrageurs face uncertainty about the horizon at which prices will converge and deviations from parity are very volatile. As a result, DLC arbitrage is characterized by substantial idiosyncratic return volatility and a high incidence of large negative returns, which are likely to impede arbitrage.