Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract I analyze the effect of monetary policy actions on the cross-section of equity returns. Based on earlier theoretical work for the monetary transmission mechanism one can argue that changes in monetary policy should produce differentiated effects on firms and stocks with different characteristics. By using different portfolio sorts the results show that the impact of monthly changes in the Federal funds rate is greater for the returns of more financially constrained stocks (e.g., small and value stocks) than on the returns of stocks with a more favorable financial position (e.g., large and growth stocks). By using a VAR methodology, the results indicate that the negative effect of Fed funds rate shocks on stock returns comes from a corresponding negative effect on future expected cash flows (cash-flow news), which is stronger than the impact on future equity risk premia (discount rate news). Thus, cash-flow news is the main return component affected by changes in the Fed funds rate. These results are reasonably robust to different VAR specifications. Moreover, the dispersion in return responses to monetary shocks across stocks is explained by a similar dispersion in the effects into cash-flow news, which outweighs the dispersion in discount rate news betas. These results represent new evidence on the effect of monetary policy on stock prices and on the monetary transmission mechanism.

Abstract We examine whether equity issuances initial public offerings (IPOs) and seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) are in part driven by investor sentiment by using equity mutual fund flows to proxy for the rational and/or irrational components of aggregate demand for equity. We find that more firms issue equity when flows are higher and repurchase equity when flows are lower. More firms file with the Securities Exchange Commission when predicted flows in the expected issuance month are greater. Price revisions are positively related to contemporaneous flows and unexpected flows. Initial returns are positively related to contemporaneous flows only for IPO issuances. These results are driven by retail, and not institutional, flows. Our evidence suggests that investor sentiment partially drives equity issuances.

Abstract Two theoretical literatures, one using Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE), and the other using noisy rational expectations equilibrium (NREE), both provide a foundation for understanding how private information is impounded into asset prices, yet some of their predictions are conflicting. Here, we compare for the first time, the two theories using data from carefully controlled laboratory asset markets. In the dynamics, we find strong evidence for BNE theory, although final prices support predictions of the NREE theory. Finally, we document that price volatility increases when information is being impounded in prices.

Abstract This article studies how the allocation of control rights in bankruptcy influences outcomes. Using Hungarian data, we find that the large majority of bankrupt firms in our sample are maintained as going concerns despite the fact that these firms generate large operating losses and low recovery rates for pre-bankruptcy creditors. We trace the bias to the allocation of control rights between secured and unsecured creditors and the compensation scheme of the agent managing the bankruptcy process. Our findings shed light on a very important bankruptcy design question: how particular provisions of the bankruptcy code affect the costs of bankruptcy and the size of the pie available to pre-bankruptcy creditors.

Abstract I propose a new factor—the global downside market factor—to explain high returns to carry trades. I show that carry trades have high downside market risk, i.e. they crash systematically in the worst states of the world when the global stock market plunges or when a disaster occurs. The downside market factor explains the returns to currency portfolios sorted by the forward discount better than other factors previously proposed in the literature. GMM estimates of the downside beta premium are similar in the currency and stock markets, statistically significant and close to their theoretical value. High returns to carry trades are fair compensation for their high downside market risk.

Abstract This article studies the interaction between corporate hedging and liquidity policies. We present a theoretical model that shows how corporate hedging facilitates greater reliance on cost-effective, externally provided liquidity in lieu of internal resources. We test the model’s predictions by employing a new empirical approach that separates cash flow hedging from other hedging instruments. Using detailed, hand-collected data, we find that cash flow hedging reduces the firm’s precautionary demand for cash and allows it to rely more on bank lines of credit. Furthermore, we find a significant positive effect of cash flow hedging on firm value, where prior evidence is mixed.

Abstract We present a dynamic rational expectations model of closed-end fund discounts that incorporates feedback effects from activist arbitrage and lifeboats. Both activist arbitrage and lifeboats distort closed-end fund prices and lead to narrower discounts. Furthermore, both activist arbitrage and lifeboats effectuate an ex post wealth transfer from managers to investors but an ex ante wealth transfer from low-ability managers to high-ability managers. On average, investor wealth is unaffected by either activist arbitrage or lifeboats because their potential benefits are factored into higher fund prices. Although lifeboats can reduce takeover attempts, they do not increase expected managerial wealth.

Abstract We empirically analyze the prevalence and economic underpinnings of closing price manipulation and its detection. We estimate that ∼1% of closing prices are manipulated, of which only a small fraction is detected and prosecuted. We find that stocks with high levels of information asymmetry and mid to low levels of liquidity are most likely to be manipulated. A significant proportion of manipulation occurs on month/quarter-end days. Manipulation on these days is more likely in stocks with high levels of institutional ownership. Government regulatory budget has a strong effect on both manipulation and detection.

Abstract We examine active retail mutual funds and institutional products with a mandate to invest in global equity markets. We find little reliable evidence of alphas in the aggregate or on average. The right tail of the distribution contains some large alphas. Decomposing stock selection from country selection, we find some evidence of superior stock picking abilities in the extreme right tail. However, simulations suggest that they are produced just as likely by luck as by skill. Persistence tests show little evidence of continuation in superior performance.