Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We contribute to the debate on whether stock-financed acquisitions destroy value for shareholders. A stock-financed acquisition is a joint takeover/equity-issue event. Using seasoned equity offering announcement returns, we estimate through linear prediction and propensity-score matching the share price drop that stock acquirers experience due to the financing choice. Net of this effect, stock-financed acquisitions are not value destructive, and the method of payment generally has no further explanatory power in the cross-section of acquirer returns. Our evidence is largely inconsistent with the agency costs of overvalued equity hypothesis.

Abstract The recent empirical evidence of a downward-sloping term structure of equity risk is viewed as a challenge to many leading asset pricing models. This article analytically characterizes conditions under which a continuous-time long-run risk model can accommodate the stylized facts about dividend and equity risk, when dividends are a stationary stochastic fraction of aggregate consumption. Such a cointegrating relation not only makes dividends riskier in the short run than at medium horizons but also preserves the role of long-run risk: consequently, the model captures both the traditional puzzles, like the high equity premium, as well as the new evidence about the term structure of equity risk.

Abstract We propose a tractable equilibrium model to examine how margin requirements affect asset prices, market volatility, and market participants’ welfare. We show that margin requirements can have opposite effects on market volatility when they constrain different investors and thus can help explain why empirical results have been mixed. Contrary to one of the main regulatory goals, we find that even though margin requirements restrict borrowing and shorting, they can significantly increase market volatility. In addition, margin requirements can make margin constrained investors better off and can lead to a greater return reversal. Our analysis also provides new empirically testable implications.

Abstract We analyze the impact of credit default swap (CDS) trading on bank syndication activity. Theoretically, the effect of CDS trading is ambiguous: on the one hand, CDS can improve risk-sharing and hence be a more flexible risk management tool than loan syndication; on the other hand, CDS trading can reduce bank monitoring incentives. We document that banks are less likely to syndicate loans and retain a larger loan fraction once CDS are actively traded on the borrower’s debt. We then discern the risk management and the moral hazard channel. We find no evidence that the reduced likelihood to syndicate loans is a result of increased moral hazard problems.

Regulators and market participants are concerned about leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs)’ role in driving up end-of-day volatility through hedging activities near the market’s close. Leveraged ETF providers counter that the funds are too small to make a meaningful impact on volatility. For the period surrounding the financial crisis, 2006–11, we show that end-of-day volatility was positively and statistically significantly correlated with the ratio of potential rebalancing trades to total trading volume. The impacts were not all economically significant, but largest during the most volatile days. Given the predictable pattern of leveraged ETF hedging demands, implications for predatory trading are explored.

Abstract We extend the constant-elasticity regression that is the default choice when equities’ exposure to currencies is estimated. In a proper real-option-style model for the exporters’ equity exposure to the foreign exchange rate, we argue, the convexity of the relationship implies that the elasticity should depend on the exchange rate level. For instance, it should shrink to zero when the option to export becomes worthless, and that should happen at a critical exchange rate that is still strictly positive. We propose a class of tractable multi-regime regression models featuring, in line with the real-options logic, smooth transitions and within-regime dynamics in the foreign exchange exposure. We then analyze the exchange rate exposure of Chinese exporting firms and find that the model in which the moneyness of the export option has a positive impact on the exchange rate exposure detects a significantly positive and convex exposure for 40% and 65% of the firms depending on whether the market return is included in the regression or not.

What types of policy intervention had a greater impact during the financial crisis? By using a detailed dataset of worldwide policy, we answer this question focusing on Global Systemically Important banks (G-SIBs), looking both to stock returns and Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads reactions. As robustness checks, we also analyze a control sample of 31 large Non-Financial Companies (NFCs). Overall, we show that different policy interventions from governments and central banks have produced diverse market reactions: investors generally appreciate monetary policy interventions for G-SIBs (but not for NFCs) and do not welcome bank failures and bailouts (for both G-SIBs and NCFs).

Abstract We study regulatory enforcement actions issued against US banks to show that both board monitoring and advising are effective in preventing misconduct by banks. While better monitoring by boards prevents all categories of misconduct, better advising prevents misconduct of a technical nature. Board monitoring increases the likelihood that misconduct is detected, increases the penalties imposed on the CEO, and alleviates shareholder wealth losses following the detection of misconduct by regulators. Our article offers novel insights on how to structure bank boards to prevent bank misconduct.

Abstract Why is the mere announcement of an open-market share repurchase program, which involves no commitment to purchase shares, regarded as good news by the market? We develop a theoretical model to resolve this puzzle. The model predicts that firms with large underpricing can attract attention from speculators by announcing repurchases, and the subsequent trades from these speculators lead to value corrections. Firms with small underpricing, however, cannot attract attention by announcing repurchases, and these firms have to use costly share repurchases as a value-correcting signal. We then provide empirical evidence corroborating the predictions of the theoretical model.

We show, using data from the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth and the German Socio-economic Panel, that household consumption drops after a child moves out of a household, while at the same time adult-equivalent consumption increases significantly. After all children are gone, parents upgrade their personal lifestyle to a level approximately that of childless peers, and save only a small proportion of the freed-up resources. Since parents had fewer resources to save while they were young, retirement preparedness among them is a more serious concern than among childless individuals.