Knowledge that Transforms

We examine the price of asymmetric dependence (AD) in the cross section of US equities. Using a β-invariant AD metric, we demonstrate that the return premium for AD is approximately 47% of the premium for β. The premium for lower-tail AD is equivalent to 26% of the market risk premium and has been relatively constant through time. The discount associated with upper-tail AD is 29% of the market risk premium and has been increasing markedly in recent years. Our findings have substantial implications for the cost of capital, investor expectations, portfolio management, and performance assessment.

In this article, we show that when banks increase their use of wholesale funding they shorten the maturity of loans to corporations. This effect appears to be linked to banks’ exposure to rollover risk resulting from their increasing use of short-term uninsured funding. Banks that use more wholesale funding shorten both the maturity of newly issued loans and the maturity of their loan portfolios. These results are not present among banks that rely predominantly on insured deposits. The link between wholesale funding and loan maturity is robust, and holds when we include firm-year fixed effects, suggesting that the decline in loan maturity is bank driven. In line with this premise, we find that the slope of the loan yield curve becomes steeper for banks that use more wholesale funding and that borrowers turn to the bond market to raise funding with longer maturity in response to banks’ loan maturity shortening.

International banks greatly reduced direct cross-border and local affiliates’ lending as the global financial crisis strained their balance sheets, lowered borrower demand, and altered government policies. Using bilateral lender–borrower data and controlling for demand, we show that reductions largely varied in line with markets’ prior assessments of banks’ vulnerabilities, with financial statements’ and lender–borrower data playing minor roles. Those banking systems subject to less market discipline, however, were less sensitive to markets’ perceptions. Moving resources within banking groups became more restricted as drivers of reductions in direct cross-border loans differed from those for local affiliates’ lending, especially for more impaired banking systems.

We empirically investigate the effect that relationship lending has on the availability and pricing of interbank liquidity. Our analysis is based on a daily panel of unsecured overnight loans between 1,079 distinct German bank pairs from March 2006 to November 2007, a period that includes the 2007 liquidity crisis that marked the beginning of the 2007–08 global financial crisis. We find that (i) relationship lenders are more likely to provide liquidity to their closest borrowers, (ii) particularly opaque borrowers obtain liquidity at lower rates when borrowing from their relationship lenders, and (iii) during the crisis, relationship lenders provided cheaper loans to their closest borrowers. Our results hold after controlling for search frictions as well as a large set of (time-varying) bank and bank-pair control variables and fixed effects. While we find some indication that lending relationships help banks reduce search frictions in the over-the-counter interbank market, our results establish that bank-pair relationships have a significant impact on interbank credit availability and pricing due to mitigating uncertainty about counterparty credit quality.

There is a tenuous link between market efficiency and economic efficiency in that stock prices are more informative when the information has less social value. We investigate this link in the context of CEO turnover. Our theoretical model predicts that, when the board’s monitoring intensity and the informed trader’s information decision are jointly endogenized, stock price informativeness is negatively related to the board’s monitoring effort. Our empirical tests provide supporting evidence for this negative effect. Moreover, using the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that SOX, while strengthening corporate governance, has a negative effect on stock price informativeness, especially among firms with complex organizational structures.

We study the impact of banks’ market power on the incidence of a bank levy that is imposed on balance sheets. Within the framework of an oligopolistic version of the Monti-Klein model, the pass-through of a bank tax levied on loans is stronger when elasticity of credit demand is low. To test this hypothesis, we investigate the incidence of the Hungarian bank tax that was introduced in 2010 on banks’ assets. This case is well suited for our analysis because the tax rate is much higher for large banks than for small banks, which allows relying on difference-in-difference methodology. In line with model predictions, our estimations show that the tax is likely to be shifted to customers with the smallest demand elasticity, such as households. This result depends on the common trends assumption that is discussed at length.

Liquidity plays an important role in global research. We identify high-quality liquidity proxies based on low-frequency (daily) data, which provide 1,000× to 10,000× computational savings compared to computing high-frequency (intraday) liquidity measures. We find that: (i) Closing Percent Quoted Spread is the best monthly percent-cost proxy when available, (ii) Amihud, Closing Percent Quoted Spread Impact, LOT Mixed Impact, High–Low Impact, and FHT Impact are tied as the best monthly cost-per-dollar-volume proxy, (iii) the daily version of Closing Percent Quoted Spread is the best daily percent-cost proxy, and (iv) the daily version of Amihud is the best daily cost-per-dollar-volume proxy.

We present a model in which flat (state-independent) capital requirements are undesirable because of shocks to bank capital. There is a rationale for countercyclical capital requirements that impose lower capital demands when aggregate bank capital is low. However, such capital requirements also have a cost as they increase systemic risk taking: by insulating banks against aggregate shocks (but not bank-specific ones), they create incentives to invest in correlated activities. As a result, the economy’s sensitivity to shocks increases and systemic crises can become more likely. Capital requirements that directly incentivize banks to become less correlated dominate countercyclical policies as they reduce both systemic risk-taking and cyclicality.

We argue that anomalies may experience prolonged decay after discovery and propose a Bayesian framework to study how that impacts portfolio decisions. Using the January effect and short-term index autocorrelations as examples of disappearing anomalies, we find that prolonged decay is empirically important, particularly for small-cap anomalies. Papers that document new anomalies without accounting for such decay may actually underestimate the original strength of the anomaly and imply an overstated level of the anomaly out of sample. We show that allowing for potential decay in the context of portfolio choice leads to out-of-sample outperformance relative to other approaches.

This article investigates the influence of financial development on patterns of industrial specialization across China’s regions. We find that industrial sectors reliant on access to external finance tend to concentrate in regions with well-developed financial markets. Both foreign direct investment (FDI) and alternative financing channels are shown to play significant roles in shaping patterns of industrial specialization in China. In contrast, proxies for formal financial markets, for example, the banking system and capital markets, have few effects on regional industrial agglomeration. This result remains robust to instrumental variable estimation, alternative model specifications, and controlling for other traditional determinants of regional specialization.