Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We study political influences on private banks receiving government funds. Using spatial discontinuities associated with congressional district borders, we show that recipient banks of the 2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program increased mortgage and small business lending by 23–60% more in census tracts located just inside their home-representative’s district than just outside; the effect also shows up in higher loan acceptance rates, and mortgages more likely to be impaired or in default. The effect is stronger when the representative voted for TARP, is politically powerful, connected to the financial industry, and when the bank is important in the district. These findings suggest that obtaining public funds subjects firms to political influences, which affects the quantity and quality of corporate investment because of political considerations.

Abstract Since the late 1990s, over 75% of US industries have experienced an increase in concentration levels. We find that firms in industries with the largest increases in product market concentration show higher profit margins and more profitable mergers and acquisitions deals. At the same time, we find no evidence for a significant increase in operational efficiency. Taken together, our results suggest that market power is becoming an important source of value. These findings are robust to the inclusion of (i) private firms; (ii) factors accounting for foreign competition; and (iii) the use of alternative measures of concentration. We also show that the higher profit margins associated with an increase in concentration are reflected in higher returns to shareholders. Overall, our results suggest that the US product markets have undergone a shift that has potentially weakened competition across the majority of industries.

Abstract We study the effects of Confucian social norms on savings rates in China. In our simple two-period model, parents have the option to invest in either a risk-free asset or their children’s human capital. We assume that the filial piety norms and thus the enforcement mechanisms for supporting old-age parents differ across regions. Consequently, the probability of children’s non-performance of their repayment obligations to parents and the returns parents can expect from investing in their children vary. We test the model predictions using data from the China Household Finance Survey. We find that stronger Confucian social norms reduce the gap in the savings rate between families with sons and with daughters. Modeling default by children as a function of the prevailing social norms gives us the flexibility to study the impacts of declining Confucian influence on consumption–savings trends in China.

Abstract Prior research has shown that information diffuses gradually across stocks that are economically linked at the industry level. I document a similar pattern when stock portfolios are formed based on characteristics that are used in the anomaly literature (e.g., size, value, asset growth). Specifically, characteristics are useful to identify economic links, and earnings surprises contain information about future returns of other firms that share similar characteristics (i.e., “similar-style” firms). Such style-based earnings surprises can be used to predict style returns in the time series. For the cross-section of stocks, I create a composite style-based earnings surprise measure (SESM), which generates an equal-weighted (value-weighted) long–short strategy return of 167 (101) basis points per month. I do not find that industry spillovers, the traditional post-earnings announcement drift, unconditional abnormal style returns or risk can explain the return predictability. My findings suggest a further channel of gradual information diffusion in security markets.

Abstract We conduct a series of forecasting experiments to examine how people update their beliefs upon observing others’ forecasts. Subjects exhibit “cursedness,” that is, a propensity to underestimate the link between others’ forecasts and others’ information, which causes subjects to underreact. The behavior of sophisticated subjects is not affected by the framing of information, but unsophisticated subjects switch from underreaction to overreaction when they are only provided qualitative (rather than quantitative) forecast information. Our results have important implications for the way that financial analysts aggregate information and the way that financial institutions present forecasts to their clients.

Abstract We show that currency networks in cross-border bank lending have a significant impact on the size, distribution, and direction of international monetary policy spillovers. Utilizing a novel dataset, we map the major currency networks in international banking and show that the US dollar dominates at the global level. Next, we provide evidence that during the 2013 Fed taper tantrum, the degree of exposure to US dollar lending had a significant impact on cross-border bank lending growth. Most notably, it had a strong negative impact on cross-border flows to emerging markets.

Abstract We examine whether there is a correlation between personal wealth interests of politicians and their decisions to intervene in the economy. We use the setting of the government’s support of financial institutions under the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. We find that the personal wealth interests of politicians are positively associated with voting in favor of the EESA.

Abstract Hedge fund activism is associated with improvements in the governance and performance of targeted firms. In this article, we show that these positive effects of activism reach beyond the targets, as nontargeted peers make similar improvements under the threat of activism. Peers with higher threat perception, as measured by director connections to past targets, are more likely to increase leverage and payout, decrease capital expenditures and cash, and improve return on assets and asset turnover. As a result, their valuations improve, and their probability of being targeted declines. Our results are not explained by time-varying industry conditions or competition effects whereby improved targets force their product market rivals to become more competitive.

Abstract Euro-area sovereign bond and interbank interest rate spreads spiked in the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent European Debt Crisis, substantially elevating financing costs. I use a model-free measure of market liquidity to precisely identify the relative contribution of credit versus liquidity to spreads in these episodes. In the Financial Crisis, liquidity is paramount, accounting for 36% of trough-to-peak widening, after controlling for credit. However, default risk becomes relatively more important to sovereign spreads in the Debt Crisis. Aggregate bond liquidity explains a substantial portion of interbank spreads throughout the sample.

Abstract We study how operating efficiencies in horizontal mergers affect market reactions of merging firms’ rivals, customers, and suppliers. We measure operating efficiency gains using projections disclosed by merging firms’ insiders. Higher efficiency gains are associated with lower announcement returns to merging firms’ rivals (due to increased equilibrium output of merging firms), higher returns to their customers (due to lower equilibrium price of merging firms’ output), and higher returns to their suppliers (due to the merged firm’s higher equilibrium demand for inputs). Our results suggest that the pass-through of efficiency gains along merging firms’ supply chains is as important as the effects of post-merger changes in market power.