Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We propose a new methodology for modeling and estimating time-varying downside risk and upside uncertainty in equity returns and for assessment of risk–return trade-off in financial markets. Using the salient features of the binormal distribution, we explicitly relate downside risk and upside uncertainty to conditional heteroskedasticity and asymmetry through binormal GARCH (BiN-GARCH) model. Based on S&P 500 and international index returns, we find strong empirical support for existence of significant relative downside risk, and robust positive relationship between relative downside risk and conditional mode.

Abstract We document increased stock price comovement for companies added to major indices around the world. Using data on forty developed and emerging markets for 10 years, we find that in most markets, when added to a major index, firms experience an increase in their beta (especially if their pre-inclusion beta is low) and in the extent to which market returns explain firm stock returns (R2). Stock turnover and analyst coverage also typically increase upon inclusion. Various empirical tests suggest that the category/habitat views of Barberis, Shleifer and Wurgler explain most of these results, although information-related factors also account for some findings.

Abstract We examine whether the trading activities of retail and institutional investors cause comovements in stock returns. Around stock splits, retail trading correlations (RTCs) decrease with stocks in the presplit price range and increase with stocks in the post-split price range. These shifts in RTCs induce changes in return comovements. In the cross section, return comovements among low-priced stocks are amplified when retail trades are more correlated and when aggregate uncertainty amplifies behavioral biases. We find similar patterns among local stocks and when firms change their corporate headquarters. In contrast to retail trading, institutional trading attenuates return comovements.

Abstract Recent findings indicate that macroeconomic survey forecasts are anchoring biased and therefore are inefficient. However, despite highly significant test coefficients, a bias adjustment does not improve forecasts’ quality. We find that the cognitive bias is a statistical artifact because the anchoring test is biased itself. In particular, it produces misleading results if macroeconomic analysts use more comprehensive information than assumed by the test. Our results have important implications for a wide range of empirical research relying on survey data to capture market participants’ expectations, for example, studies analyzing the impact of macroeconomic conditions on asset prices, equity risk premiums, or market liquidity.

Abstract We develop a model of trading by an informed fund manager compensated on the basis of her fund's Net Asset Value (NAV). We show that she has an incentive to pump her portfolio by buying securities she already holds. Pumping leads to excessive trading and hurts long-term fund performance. It also biases upward measured NAVs and contributes to closed-end fund discounts. Despite such costs, it may still be optimal to base her compensation on NAV.

Abstract This paper examines the interaction between default risk and interest-rate risk in determining the term structure of credit default swap spreads at different industry sectors and credit-rating classes. The paper starts with a parsimonious three-factor interest-rate dynamic term structure and projects the credit spread at each industry sector and rating class to these interest-rate factors while also allowing the projection residual dynamics to depend on the level of the interest-rate factors. Estimation shows that credit risk exhibits intricate dynamic interactions with the interest-rate factors.

Abstract Managers have the choice to take the firm private themselves in a management buyout or to seek private equity backing. We argue that managers seek private equity backing in case they are more constrained to finance the deal themselves. We confirm the hypothesis using a sample of UK public-to-private transactions over the period 1997–2003. A post going private performance analysis reveals that both management buyouts and private equity backed deals outperform their industry peers. However, private equity backed deals outperform their peers already before the deal takes place whereas management buyouts improve performance afterwards. This suggests a passive role for private equity firms in going private transactions.

Abstract In capital-intensive industries, firms face complicated multi-staged financing, investment, and production decisions under the watchful eye of existing and potential industry rivals. In various representations of this environment, we show that a first-mover advantage in debt weakly dominates a first-mover advantage in capacity. Without a first-mover advantage in debt, the incumbent may suffer a dead-weight loss. When both the entrant and incumbent deploy debt prior to capacity, a first-mover in capacity benefits from softer competition. With a long-purse debt cost, leading in debt still remains advantageous.

Abstract We provide the first empirical study of the relationship between corporate working capital management and shareholders’ wealth. Examining US corporations from 1990 through 2006, we find evidence that: the incremental dollar invested in net operating working capital is worth less than the incremental dollar held in cash for the average firm; the valuation of the incremental dollar invested in net operating working capital is significantly influenced by a firm’s future sales expectations, its debt load, its financial constraints, and its bankruptcy risk; and the value of the incremental dollar extended in credit to one’s customers has a greater effect on shareholders’ wealth than the incremental dollar invested in inventories for the average firm.

Abstract This article analyzes hedge funds’ expansion during 2000–09 and its implications for stock returns. Hedge funds more than doubled their equity ownership prior to the 2007–09 financial crisis. In this expansion period, their trading predicts increasing one-quarter-ahead stock returns and return reversals in the 2nd year. These reversals stem from the expansion of mature funds, while young funds’ trading predicts one-quarter-ahead returns without future reversals. The above price pressures disappear when hedge funds shift to contractions in the financial crisis. These findings are consistent with mature funds’ expansions exerting pressures on equities and young funds possessing stock picking skills.