Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We show that US firms increase their sustainability performance when their directors acquire expertise through their exposure to sustainability reforms in foreign countries where they serve as directors. Our results suggest that a board that gains sustainability expertise increases a firm’s overall sustainability performance by 7.1%. The increase in sustainability comes both from improvements in environmental and social practices. Directors also consider the tradeoffs between sustainability improvements and firm characteristics, with boards having a stronger impact on sustainability in firms from clean industries and firms that face fewer operational and financial constraints.

Abstract We study the economic value of market timing in foreign exchange (FX) markets, that is, using information about the conditional Sharpe ratio to adjust the notional value of a conditionally mean–variance efficient currency portfolio. Our strategy trades more (less) aggressively when the conditional risk-return trade-off is more (less) favorable. This leads to a significant improvement in the out-of-sample unconditional Sharpe ratio, skewness, and maximum drawdown per 1% expected excess return. The strategy’s market timing predicts returns, volatility, and skewness in FX markets. Popular currency pricing factors do not explain the strategy’s high average excess returns. Our findings suggest that it is costly to impose leverage or risk (i.e., conditional volatility) limits or other inferior market timing policies when constructing currency trading strategies.

Abstract How is technically skilled human capital reflected in firm performance? We leverage a uniquely detailed employer–employee matched dataset to measure US firms’ technical human capital in information technology (IT), Software Engineering, Mobile Networks, Data Analysis, and Web Development. All five technical skillsets are associated with higher firm valuations. However, they negatively forecast both financial and operational performance in the future. For example, a one-standard-deviation increase in employees with IT skills corresponds to 2.2% higher Tobin’s q but predictable future returns of –10 basis points per month. Our results are stronger in tighter labor markets, in firms with more cash, and during time periods when each technical skillset is especially popular. These patterns suggest that the market expects too much from popular technologies, leading to over-valuation. Overall, our results highlight how corporate over-investment can extend to intangible capital such as skilled employees.

Abstract We test whether measures of influence on regulators affect stress-test outcomes. The large trading banks—those most plausibly Too Big to Fail—face the toughest tests. Supervisory stress tests have a greater effect on large trading banks’ portfolios; the large banks respond by making more conservative (initial) capital plans; and, despite their more conservative capital plans, the large banks still fail their tests more frequently than other banks. In contrast, while we find little evidence that political or regulatory connections affect the quantitative element of the stress tests, these connected banks do face less scrutiny under its qualitative dimension.

Abstract We examine an undercover Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigation into the manipulation of financial news on social media. While fraudulent news had a direct positive impact on retail trading and prices, revelation of the fraud by the SEC announcement resulted in significantly lower retail trading volume on all news, including legitimate news, on these platforms. For small firms, volume declined by 23.5% and price volatility dropped by 1.3%. We find evidence consistent with concerns of fraud causing the decline in trading activity and price volatility, which we interpret through the lens of social capital, and attempt to rule out alternative explanations. The results highlight the indirect consequences of fraud and its spillover effects that reduce the social network’s impact on information dissemination, especially for small, opaque firms.

Abstract Using a unique dataset of more than 2 million Chinese firms that received credit from both an important big tech firm (Ant Group) and traditional commercial banks, this paper investigates how different forms of credit correlate with local economic activity, house prices, and firm characteristics. We find that big tech credit does not correlate with local business conditions and house prices when controlling for demand factors, but reacts strongly to changes in firm characteristics, such as transaction volumes and network scores used to calculate firm credit ratings. By contrast, both secured and unsecured bank credit react significantly to local house prices, which incorporate useful information on the environment in which clients operate and on their creditworthiness. This evidence implies that the wider use of big tech credit could reduce the importance of the collateral channel but, at the same time, make lending more reactive to changes in firms’ business activity.

We examine the stock market returns in an environment in which the dates of the central bank’s information supply through public announcements are not prescheduled. We document that positive excess returns are accumulated as early as 3 days before China’s central bank releases the monthly data of monetary aggregates, which may be announced either early or late in a month. In particular, this pre-announcement premium exists only when an announcement arrives late in an announcement cycle. We provide a theoretical framework in which the degree of information acquisition in the market increases as the date approaches the end of an announcement cycle while investors are still waiting for the arrival of an announcement, a hypothesis that receives strong empirical support. We show that the information acquisition channel highlighted in Ai, Bansal, and Han (2022) explains the uncertainty reduction and the positive risk premium before monetary announcements in China.

Abstract Using numeric and textual data extracted from over 50,000 finance articles in Social Science Research Network (SSRN) during 2001–19, we examine the relationship between measured qualities and a paper’s readership, eventual outlet, and impact. Conventionality (semantic similarity with existent research) helps boost readership and publication prospects. However, novelty in the forms of emerging topics and databases are associated with better publishing outcomes. Studies that do not easily map into established finance subfields or that introduce nonfinance elements face a higher hurdle. Finally, papers whose research questions span multiple fields are a hard sell, but those building on prior knowledge from multiple fields are valued.

Abstract We explore the effects of a “tick size war” in which European trading venues directly competed on the minimum pricing increment in the limit order book, the tick size. We find that venues that reduced their tick size immediately captured market shares of both quoted and executed volume from the exchanges that kept their ticks large. We find that tick size competition improves market quality, reducing trading costs, and increasing market-wide depth and volume. These market quality improvements are strongest in stocks where the bid–ask spread was constrained to one tick, where liquidity providers use the finer pricing grid to engage in price competition.

Abstract In the twenty-first century, the most valuable firms in the world are valued primarily for their data. This article describes a set of tools to measure and value data and highlights unanswered questions, where more research is needed.