Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We model the feedback loop between the sales of trading advantages (e.g., data or co-location services) and traders’ endogenous participation in financial markets. Whereas a trader’s benefit from purchasing trading advantages increases with aggregate market participation, the benefit from participating decreases with other traders’ purchases of trading advantages that impose negative externalities on counterparties. In equilibrium, sellers of trading advantages (e.g., data providers or securities exchanges) may maximize their profits by prompting inefficiently low market participation and liquidity. We study the consequences of altering the market structure and show that the resulting policy prescriptions contrast sharply with standard models.

Abstract In the Australian real estate market, about a third of properties are sold at auction. Properties that fail auctions sell later for a 1.3 percent discount. Consistent with a causal channel, the effect holds with property-level fixed effects and when auction failure is instrumented by adverse weather or seller overvaluation. Prices cluster below round numbers, and the discount fades over time, inconsistent with our effects reflecting unobserved property characteristics. The evidence suggests that there are behavioral factors affecting the valuations of buyers and sellers.

Abstract Many initial public offerings (IPOs) are priced at exactly the high-end of the pricing range. Investing in IPOs priced at the high-end leads to first-day returns that are substantially higher than investing in IPOs that are priced just below or above the high-end. We argue that these results are in line with issuing firms settling for positively perceived salient pricing points in negotiations with underwriters.

Abstract A theoretical model of the borrower–lender relationship predicts that increased competitive threats lead to a reduction in loan covenant restrictiveness that is stronger for groups of borrowers who face constraints to their ability to raise external financing or compete in the product market. These predictions arise because competition impacts the dynamics of borrower performance so that lenders must trade off the benefit of controlling agency problems against a heightened cost of lost product market opportunities for the borrower, ultimately lowering the optimal use of covenants. We find strong empirical support for these predictions, highlighting an important role of competition for optimal financial contracting rooted in underlying agency problems.

Abstract We combine high-frequency stock returns with risk-neutralization to extract the daily common component of tail risks perceived by investors in the cross-section of firms. Our tail risk measure significantly predicts the equity premium and variance risk premium at short horizons. Furthermore, a long–short portfolio built by sorting stocks on their recent exposure to tail risk generates abnormal returns with respect to standard factor models. Incorporating investors’ preferences via risk-neutralization is fundamental to our findings: the predictive power of the physical tail risk is weaker and generally subsumed by its risk-neutral counterpart.

Abstract Using data from a Twitter-like investor social platform, we document evidence consistent with self-enhancing transmission bias. We find investors are more likely to post about their better-performing stocks. Their followers are more likely to buy the posted stocks than other non-posted stocks. The effect of the postings on follow-up purchases is consistent with an attention-based interpretation: the postings bring the discussed stocks into the followers’ choice set and increase their purchases. We also find that postings’ effect on follow-up purchases is related to postings’ perceived credibility. The performance-postings relationship is stronger among more volatile stocks and the relationship between postings and follow-up purchases is stronger among stocks with higher recent returns, shedding light on the spread of high-variance and extrapolative strategies. We also document that the social network features influential nodes.

Abstract The paper introduces a novel two-beta currency pricing model, which decomposes the conventional dollar factor beta into a beta with risk-premium news and a beta with real-interest-rate news. These betas capture distinct features of currency returns and explain cross-sectional variations in currency risk premiums. The risk-premium beta is associated with an unconditionally positive price of risk, while the real-rate beta has an unconditionally negative price of risk due to precautionary savings. The prices of these beta risks exhibit conditional variations tied to economic conditions. Furthermore, the model explains the abnormal performance of various currency trading strategies.

Abstract …is “should I buy any?”. Under Bayesian portfolio theory, ongoing zero weights in cryptocurrency are surprisingly difficult to generate. With 10 years of prior data, equity investors would need very pessimistic priors on mean returns to never buy cryptocurrency: −10.6 percent per month for Bitcoin, and −19.6 percent for a diversified cryptocurrency portfolio. Most priors that involve never purchasing cryptocurrency imply shorting it. Optimal weights are generally small, non-trivial (1–5 percent magnitude), frequently positive, and smooth. The certainty equivalent gains from cryptocurrency are comparable to international diversification and prominent anomaly portfolios. Costs (storage and fees) would need to exceed 21–39 percent annually to deter trading.

Abstract Data-driven lending relies on the calibration of models using training periods. We find that this type of lending is not resilient in the presence of economic conditions that are materially different from those experienced during the training period. Using data from a small business fintech lending platform, we document that the small business credit supply collapsed during the COVID-19 crisis of March 2020 even though the demand for loans doubled relative to pre-pandemic levels. As the month progressed, most lenders significantly reduced or halted their lending activities, likely due to the heightened risk of model miscalibration under the new economic conditions.

Abstract This article studies how corporate tax hikes transmit across countries through multinationals’ internal networks of subsidiaries. We build a parsimonious multicountry model to highlight two opposing spillover effects: while tax competition between countries generates positive investment spillover, intra-firm production linkages predict negative spillover. Using subsidiary-level data and exogenous corporate tax hikes, we find that local business units cut investment by 0.5 percent for a 1 percent increase in foreign corporate tax. This result highlights the importance of production linkages in propagating foreign tax shocks, as the supply-chain-induced negative spillover dominates the positive spillover effect suggested by the conventional wisdom of tax competition.