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Improving Investment Decisions with Simulated Experience

Review of Finance 2015 19(3), 1019-1052 open access
We apply a new and innovative approach to communicating risks associated with financial products that should support investors in making better investment decisions. In our experiments, participants are able to gain “simulated experience” by random sampling of a previously described return distribution. We find that simulated experience considerably improves participants’ understanding of the underlying risk–return profile and prompts them to reconsider their investment decisions and to choose riskier financial products without regretting their higher risk-taking behavior afterwards. This method of experienced-based learning has high potential for being integrated into real-world applications and services.

Gambling Preference and the New Year Effect of Assets with Lottery Features

Review of Finance 2012 16(3), 685-731 open access
This paper shows that a New Year's gambling preference of individual investors impacts prices and returns of assets with lottery features. January call options, especially the out-of-the-money calls, have higher retail demand and are the most expensive and actively traded. Lottery-type stocks outperform their counterparts in January but tend to underperform in other months. Retail sentiment is more bullish in lottery-type stocks in January than in other months. Furthermore, lottery-type Chinese stocks outperform in the Chinese New Year's Month but not in January. This New Year effect provides new insights into the broad phenomena related to the January effect.

Do Country-Level Creditor Protections Affect Firm-Level Debt Structure Concentration?

Review of Finance 2021 25(6), 1677-1725
We study the effects of country-level creditor protections on the firm-level choice of debt structure concentration. Using data from forty-six countries, we show that firms form more concentrated debt structures in countries with stronger creditor protection. We propose a trade-off framework of optimal debt structure and show that in strong creditor rights regimes, the benefit of forming concentrated structures outweighs its cost. Because strong creditor protections increase liquidation bias, firms choose concentrated debt structures to improve the probability of successful distressed debt renegotiations. Firms with ex ante higher bankruptcy costs, including those with higher intangibility, cash flow volatility, R&D expenses, and leverage, exhibit stronger effects. Firms with restricted access to capital are also affected more. A difference-in-differences analysis of firms’ debt structure responses to creditor rights reforms confirms the cross-country results. Our findings are robust to alternative settings and a battery of robustness checks.

Reputation and Loan Contract Terms: The Role of Principal Customers

Review of Finance 2016 20(2), 501-533 open access
Principal customers have strong incentives to screen and/or monitor suppliers to ensure supply-chain stability; consequently, the implicit certification from the existence of long-term relationships with principal customers has reputational consequences that potentially spill over to other markets. We argue that one such consequence is smaller loan spreads and looser loan covenants on bank loans, as firms that are able to hold on to principal customers longer are perceived as safer firms by banks. We address causality and endogeneity issues via a variety of tests and find consistent results. Our study suggests that non-financial stakeholders can have important effects on the decisions of financial stakeholders.

Managerial Incentives and Corporate Fraud: The Sources of Incentives Matter

Review of Finance 2009 13(1), 115-145 open access
Operating performance and stock return results imply that managers who commit fraud anticipate large stock price declines if they were to report truthfully, which would cause greater losses for managerial stockholdings than for options because of differences in convexity. Fraud firms have significantly greater incentives from unrestricted stockholdings than control firms do, and unrestricted stockholdings are their largest incentive source. Our results emphasize the importance of the shape and vesting status of incentive payoffs in providing incentives to commit fraud. Fraud firms also have characteristics that suggest a lower likelihood of fraud detection, which implies lower expected costs of fraud.