Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract Between September 08 and June 09, a period with significant market events, we surveyed UK online-brokerage customers at 3-month intervals for their willingness to take risk, 3-month expectations of returns and risks for the market and their own portfolio, and self-reported risk attitude. This unique dataset allowed us to analyze how these variables changed over time, and whether changes in risk taking were related to changes in expectations and/or risk attitudes. Risk taking changed substantially during the period, as did return and risk expectations. Numeric assessments of return and risk expectations were only weakly correlated with corresponding subjective judgments. Consistent with the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, changes in risk taking were associated with changes in subjective expectations of market portfolio risk and returns, but less with changes in numeric expectations.

Abstract We analyze the impact of bank internationalization on domestic market power (Lerner index) and risk for German banks. Risk is measured by the official declaration of regulatory authorities that a bank is distressed. We distinguish the volume of foreign assets, the number of foreign countries, and different modes of foreign entry. Our analysis has three main results. First, higher market power is associated with lower risk. Second, holding assets in many countries reduce market power at home, but banks with a higher share of foreign assets exhibit higher market power. Third, bank internationalization is only weakly related to bank risk.

Abstract We study the liquidity demand of large settlement banks in the UK and its effect on the money markets before and during the subprime crisis of 2007–08. We find that the liquidity demand of large settlement banks experienced a 30% increase in the period immediately following August 9 2007, the day when money markets froze, igniting the crisis. Following this shift, liquidity demand had a precautionary nature in that it rose on days of high payment activity and for banks with greater credit risk. This caused overnight interbank rates to rise, an effect virtually absent in the precrisis period.

Abstract This article investigates risk and stability features of Islamic banking using a sample of 553 banks from 24 countries between 1999 and 2009. Small Islamic banks that are leveraged or based in countries with predominantly Muslim populations have lower credit risk than conventional banks. In terms of insolvency risk, small Islamic banks also appear more stable. Moreover, we find little evidence that Islamic banks charge rents to their customers for offering Shariá-compliant financial products. Our results also show that loan quality of Islamic banks is less responsive to domestic interest rates compared to conventional banks.

Abstract This article provides comprehensive tests of alternative jump-diffusion models for the purpose of hedging S&P 500 options. We explicitly take into account the risk arising from price and variance jumps and assess the hedging performance by focusing on the ability of competing specifications to forecast hedging errors. To this end, we devise density prediction tests and find evidence that jumps are important features of S&P 500 index dynamics. All jump-diffusion models tested in this article show signs of misspecification, but the inclusion of jumps can improve the hedging performance and risk assessment, especially in two-instrument hedges.

Abstract We study the predictability of stock returns using a pure macroeconomic measure of the world business cycle, namely the world's capital to output ratio. This variable tracks variation in expected stock returns in a group of the major industrial economies in the presence of world financial market–based predictor variables. The world's capital to output ratio exhibits strong out-of-sample predictive power in almost all countries studied. This is in contrast to financial market–based variables that almost never have out-of-sample forecasting power. Using the stock return predictability that we uncover, we find that international versions of conditional asset pricing models perform well. The world capital to output ratio also predicts bond returns, interest rate changes, and credit spreads. The results highlight the importance of world business conditions for financial markets.

Abstract We examine the link between minority shareholders’ rights and corporate governance by studying institutional investors’ voting patterns in a concentrated ownership environment. Institutions rarely vote against insider-sponsored proposals even when the law empowers the minority. Institutions vote against compensation-related proposals more often than against related party transactions even when minority shareholders cannot influence outcomes. Potentially conflicted institutions are more likely to vote for insiders’ proposals than stand-alone investors, regardless of their effect on outcomes. A plausible conclusion is that empowering minority shareholders affects the selection of proposals but not actual voting; another is that empowering minority shareholders is ineffective without addressing conflicts of interest.

Abstract Based on a textual analysis of initial public offering (IPO) prospectuses, we obtain a number of important findings regarding the relation between the conservatism in prospectuses, IPO pricing, and subsequent operating and stock return performance. First, prospectus conservatism is positively related to underpricing, with the relation more pronounced for technology than nontechnology firms. Second, for nontechnology IPOs, prospectus conservatism is able to predict the firm’s post-IPO operating performance. Specifically, we find that conservatism is inversely related to the firm’s operating performance for the 3 years following the IPO. However, this predictability is limited to nontechnology IPOs. Finally, we find some evidence that for nontechnology IPOs conservatism is inversely related to the firm’s post-IPO abnormal stock return. We conclude that the conservatism contained in an IPO’s prospectus contains useful information about pricing and subsequent operating and stock return performance. Moreover, prospectus conservatism for nontechnology IPOs deserves more attention from investors.

Abstract This article documents a link between trading and diversification by using detailed trading records from a Swedish discount broker matched with individual tax records. Diversification is measured by the investors’ stake size, defined as the fraction of their risky financial wealth invested in individual stocks through the broker under study. High-stake investors have concentrated portfolios, trade more, and achieve lower trading performance. They share several features with those who trade excessively, namely lower income, wealth, age, and education, suggesting that they lack investment expertise. The results directly imply that trading losses in the cross-section are mainly borne by those who can least afford them.

Abstract We propose a direct test of the explanation by Modigliani and Cohn (MC) for the positive correlation between inflation and equity values—that it results from investors’ money illusion. This explanation, unlike its main rivals, suggests that because in inflationary periods dividends will, on average, be higher than expected, dividend announcements will trigger positive abnormal returns. These will be higher the higher the inflation, and the more levered the firm. The behavior of abnormal returns of US stocks on dividend-announcement days from 1955 to 2007 supports these predictions. We investigate alternative explanations of our results. None dominates MC’s.