Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We investigate the role of sentiment and its implications for real assets. Using shipping sentiment proxies that capture market expectations, valuation, and liquidity, we construct sentiment indices for the dry bulk shipping market. Evidence suggests that sentiment affects the monthly returns of real assets. The empirical findings also show that market sentiment serves as a contrarian indicator for future cycle phases in all sectors. Furthermore, a sentiment-based trading simulation exercise on the sale and purchase of vessels shows that investors can benefit from higher returns compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark, while partially offsetting the highly volatile nature of the shipping industry.

Abstract The recent financial crisis caused a shock to private wealth. Households with low financial literacy are less likely to own risky assets directly. Therefore, fewer of them report financial losses. More importantly, financially illiterate households are more prone to sell assets that have lost in value. Thereby losses become permanent, and these households do not participate in markets’ resurgence. This flight from risky assets is persistent—the financial crisis may prove to be a traumatic experience that shapes investment behavior and gives rise to serious distributional consequences, as households with lower financial literacy face lower returns in the long run.

Abstract Using a portfolio choice model, we derive the optimal demand for stocks, bonds, annuities, and term life insurance for a retired couple with uncertainty in both lifetimes. We show that the optimal portfolio is heavily weighted with joint annuities and that life insurance is purchased mainly to protect a surviving spouse from loss of annuitized income rather than for bequest. Consistent with these predictions, empirical analyses on Health and Retirement Study data indicate that life insurance holdings are related to the degree of asymmetry in the couple’s annuitized income distribution.

Abstract Cash holdings of equity mutual funds impose a drag on fund performance but also allow managers to make quick investments in attractive stocks and satisfy outflows without costly fire sales. This article shows that actively managed equity funds with high abnormal cash—that is, with cash holdings in excess of the level predicted by fund attributes—outperform their low abnormal cash peers by over 2% per year. Managers carrying high abnormal cash compensate for the low return on cash by making superior stock selection decisions, whereas less capable managers find abnormal cash costly and remain more fully invested in equities. Managers of high abnormal cash funds also proficiently satisfy fund outflows and control fund transaction costs, whereas low abnormal cash funds lack flexibility to cover outflows and can suffer from costly fire sales. The empirical evidence suggests that managers carrying abnormal cash benefit from the flexibility it provides despite the costs of holding cash.

Abstract We introduce the structural conditional correlation (SCC) methodology to the foreign flows literature to identify the contemporaneous return–flow interaction and provide new evidence using the first daily data from a sizeable European emerging market and comparing to Asian markets. SCC results indicate significant bilateral intraday interaction between net foreign flows and market returns, and the presence of their latent common drivers. Allowing for these effects alters previously uniform results of positive feedback trading for some Asian markets, as well as the price impact estimates. Foreigners display a sluggish response to global information, which cannot be attributed to their information disadvantage.

Abstract The evidence from the repo market is more supportive to the expectations hypothesis, but term structure anomalies still remain. Using the Bekaert–Hodrick–Marshall (2001) method, we investigate whether term structure anomalies can be explained by peso problems by estimating a regime-switching model for the overnight repo rate. We find that term structure anomalies can largely be accounted for by peso problems, probably along with a small time-varying risk premium for the full sample. However, peso problem explanations cannot resolve term structure anomalies for the postcrisis sample. In addition, we find that three regimes are related to calendar effects in the repo market.

Abstract This article shows that former investment bankers become important clients for their previous employers and also provide access to profitable business opportunities to their new private equity employers through their previous employment networks. I observe 1,326 individuals directly involved in 1,285 transactions, of whom a large majority have changed their occupation from financial advisor to private equity professional. The social networks arising from these labor market movements affect private equity firms’ choices of financial advisors, as well as the sourcing, pricing, and performance of deals.

Abstract We evaluate US firms’ leverage determinants by studying how firms paid for 2,073 very large investments between 1989 and 2006. This approach complements existing empirical work on capital structure, which typically estimates regression models of leverage for a broad set of firms. Because large investments are mostly externally financed, security issuances should provide information about managers’ attitudes toward leverage. We find that issued securities move firms toward target debt ratios. Firms also tend to issue more equity following a share price run-up, consistent with both the tradeoff hypothesis and managerial efforts to time market sentiment. We find little support for the standard pecking order hypothesis.

Abstract We study incentive provision in a model of securities issuance with an informed issuer and uninformed investors. We show that the presence of an informed intermediary may increase surplus even if we allow for collusion between the intermediary and the issuer. Collusion is neutralized by introducing a misalignment between the interests of the issuer and those of the intermediary. To achieve this, the intermediary commits to hold some of the securities. The intermediary then underprices the remaining securities and extracts any investor surplus through a “participation fee.” We provide an explanation for the diffusion of book building and quid pro quo practices in Initial Public Offerings (IPOs).

Abstract Signed small trade turnover (SSTT) measures temporary uninformed buy or sell pressure that is initiated by small trades in the same direction. Using Nasdaq OMX Helsinki tick-by-tick trade data with known investor category, we confirm that SSTT is a robust proxy for uninformed trading. In the short term (1–3 months), stocks with a high proportion of signed small trades outperform, but in the medium (4–6 months) and long term (7–36 months), SSTT by individual investors has a negative correlation to stock returns, while SSTT by institutional investors and foreign nominees is not related to stock returns. Systematic trading behavior appears to better explain the excess return generated by the low SSTT portfolio relative to the high SSTT portfolio when compared to traditional risk factors in the CAPM and Fama-French models. In the aggregate, small trades are noise in the spirit of Kyle (1985) and Black (1986), but small trade behavior impacts the performance of individuals and not the performance of institutions. Large trades by both individuals and institutions perform better in the intermediate and long term, which lends some credibility to the practice of classifying larger trades as informed, but our results show that these trades are not always by institutions.