Knowledge that Transforms

This study introduces a novel mood metric—blockbuster movie releases—and investigates its correlation with stock market dynamics. We document a significant positive correlation between blockbuster movie releases and US stock market returns in the subsequent week. This pattern remains robust across various robustness tests both in-sample and out-of-sample. The changes in weekly box office revenue and increased Internet searches for movie-related terms further affirm this relationship. Moreover, releases of blockbuster movies predict lower expected market volatility and risk aversion. The positive predictive effect on market returns is also evident in international markets.

This article examines whether agency conflicts introduced by securitization affect servicers’ asset liquidation decisions. We find securitized loans are 25.4–28.5 percent less likely to be liquidated via short sales than portfolio loans. Securitized loan servicers’ bias against short sales does not represent an agency conflict if short sale and real estate owned (REO) liquidations are equally efficient. However, we find REOs have significantly lower average liquidation prices, higher average liquidation expenses, and longer average liquidation times than short sales. Although short sales benefit investors, securitized loan servicers have a financial incentive to pursue REOs.

This article explores the influence of single-child CEOs on corporate innovation and culture within the context of China’s one-child policy. Utilizing multiple identification strategies, we find that firms led by single-child CEOs invest significantly less in innovation and generate fewer and lower-impact patents. Examining the underlying economic mechanisms, we find that these CEOs foster a corporate culture that discourages trust and collaboration, leading to increased inventor departures. Additionally, firms under their leadership exhibit lower idiosyncratic risk, aligning with the typically cautious behavior of only children. Our analysis demonstrates that these outcomes are primarily driven by behavioral traits associated with being an only child, including self-centeredness, reduced team orientation, and heightened risk aversion. Overall, the study sheds light on how the singular upbringing of single-child CEOs shapes corporate behavior and performance, revealing the broader, enduring economic consequences of national population policies.

While bank supervisors frequently cooperate across countries, novel data on 268 cooperation agreements reveal that such cooperation falls short of covering the global operations of large banking groups. We show that this causes material regulatory arbitrage: banking groups allocate lending activities and risk into third-country subsidiaries when cooperation agreements cover their operations in other countries. The average distortion in a country’s foreign lending caused by regulatory arbitrage is 21 percent, with the effect being magnified in the presence of a weak supervisory framework. Taken together, our results indicate that incompleteness in cooperation substantially diminishes its global effectiveness.

An influential emerging literature documents strong correlations between carbon emissions and stock returns. We re-examine those data and conclude that these associations are driven by two factors. First, stock returns are correlated only with unscaled emissions estimated by the data vendor, but not with unscaled emissions actually disclosed by firms. Vendor-estimated emissions systematically differ from firm-disclosed emissions and are highly correlated with financial fundamentals, suggesting that prior findings primarily capture the association between such fundamentals and returns. Second, unscaled emissions, the variable typically used in academic literature, is correlated with stock returns but emissions intensity (emissions scaled by firm size), an equally important measure used in practice, is not. While unscaled emissions represent an important metric for society, we argue that, for individual firms, emissions intensity is an appropriate measurement choice to assess carbon performance. The associations between emissions and returns disappear after accounting for either of the issues above.

Over fifty countries have introduced regulatory sandboxes to foster financial innovation. This article conducts the first evaluation of their ability to improve fintechs’ access to capital and attendant real effects. Exploiting the staggered introduction of the UK sandbox, we establish that firms entering the sandbox see an increase of 15% in capital raised post-entry. Their probability of raising capital increases by 50%. Sandbox entry also has a significant positive effect on survival rates and patenting. Investigating the mechanism, we present evidence consistent with lower asymmetric information and regulatory costs.

We investigate the relation between sovereign and corporate bond issuance. Sovereign bond issues that increase a country’s maximum maturity are followed by increases in the maximum maturity of corporate issues. Our results point to issuance complementarities based on the benchmarking of corporate bonds to sovereign bonds. Sovereign and corporate bond issues are also substitutes, but substitutability requires the availability of a high-quality sovereign bond benchmark. By adding to existing theories focusing on substitutability, our findings highlight the role that the maturity of sovereign debt plays in capital market development.

We present a model of credit market competition to derive key hypotheses about how information sharing between banks influences the spatial clustering of their branches. We then test these hypotheses using data on 56,555 branches owned by 614 banks across 19 countries. We find that information sharing incentivizes banks to establish branches in localities that are new to them but that are already served by other banks. The resultant branch clustering is associated with reduced spatial credit rationing, as information sharing enables firms to access credit from more distant banks. These findings underscore how information sharing makes it more important for banks to move closer to each other rather than closer to their borrowers.

We show that engagement on environmental, social, and governance issues can benefit shareholders by reducing firms’ downside risks. We find that the risk reductions (measured using value at risk [VaR] and lower partial moments) vary across engagement types and success rates. Engagement is most effective in lowering downside risk when addressing environmental topics (primarily climate change). Further, targets with large downside risk reductions exhibit a decrease in environmental incidents after the engagement. We estimate that the VaR of engagement targets decreases by 9 percent of the standard deviation after successful engagements, relative to control firms.

We extend the Fama–MacBeth regression framework for cross-sectional return prediction to incorporate big data and machine learning. Our extension involves a three-step procedure for generating return forecasts based on Fama–MacBeth regressions with regularization and predictor selection as well as forecast combination and encompassing. As a by-product, it provides estimates of characteristic payoffs. We also develop three performance measures for assessing cross-sectional return forecasts, including a generalization of the popular time-series out-of-sample R2 statistic to the cross section. Applying our extension to over 200 firm characteristics, our cross-sectional return forecasts significantly improve out-of-sample predictive accuracy and provide substantial economic value to investors. Overall, our results suggest that a relatively large number of characteristics matter for determining cross-sectional expected returns. Our new method is straightforward to implement and interpret, and it performs well in our application.