Knowledge that Transforms

This short paper resolves an apparent contradiction between Feldman's (1989) and Riedel's (2000) equilibrium models of the term structure of interest rates under incomplete information. Feldman (1989) showed that in an incomplete information version of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985), where the stochastic productivity factors are unobservable, equilibrium term structures are ‘interior’ and bounded. Interestingly, Riedel (2000) showed that an incomplete information version of Lucas (1978), with an unobservable constant growth rate, induces a ‘corner’ unbounded equilibrium term structure: it decreases to negative infinity. This paper defines constant and stochastic asymptotic moments, clarifies the apparent conflict between Feldman's and Riedel's equilibria, and discusses implications. Because productivity and growth rates are not directly observable in the real world, the question we answer is of particular relevance.

Global turnover in foreign exchange markets averaged $1.2 trillion per day according to the most recent estimates available from the Bank for International Settlements. 1 Yet, cross-border trade of goods and services accounts for less than 5 percent of the total trading. While it is difficult to get precise estimates on hedging, roughly 20 percent of total trading is aimed at hedging against future exchange rate changes. The remaining roughly 75 percent of total turnover in global foreign exchange markets is believed to be related to short or long term exchange rate speculation. The large fraction of global turnover in currency markets that is unrelated to trade or hedging has lead economists and policy markets to the conjecture that speculation is responsible for the perceived recent increase in volatility in foreign exchange markets. Several economists, most prominently Nobel Laureate Dr. James Tobin, have advocated levying a tax (a "Tobin tax") on foreign exchange transactions to reduce volatility induced by exchange rate speculation. Recently, several European countries spearheaded by France have debated a proposed legislation to impose a tax on currency transactions. 2 However, to date, there is no strong empirical evidence that an increase in transactions costs (which would be the result of a Tobin tax) would significantly dampen volatility. On the contrary, This is the first piece of legislation in the world that would implement a Tobin-type tax. Belgium passed similar legislation in March, 2002, and several other European Union member countries have debated a Tobin tax. See www.currencytax.org.

This paper analyzes inspection and closure policies of a bank, and the strategic reaction of its managers/shareholders when they can (costly) manipulate the information available to the regulator. We derive optimal intervention policy, and analyze its effect on managerial strategies. Regulatory intervention may induce shareholders to manipulate the information available to the regulator in order to avoid intervention and closure, and we find that these incentives to manipulate information may increase with tighter capital requirements. Finally we show that, in order to avoid manipulation by the banker, some degree of forbearance in closure may be ex ante optimal.

In this paper we present an analytical method in pricing European contingent assets, whose state variables follow a multi-dimensional Lévy process. We give an explicit formula for the hypothetical European “two-price” call option price by means of the conditiona characteristic transform. The work not only unifies and extends the option pricing literature, which focuses on the use of the characteristic function, but also provides the way to formalizeand unify the valuation of the option price, the valuation of the discount bond price, the valuation of the scaled-forward price, and the valuation of the pricing measure in incomplete markets.

Using data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange we analyze price formation and liquidity in a non-anonymous environment with similarities to the floor of the NYSE. Our main hypothesis is that the non-anonymity allows the specialist to assess the probability that a trader trades on the basis of private information. He uses this knowledge to price discriminate. This can be achieved by quoting a large spread and granting price improvement to traders deemed uninformed. Consistent with our hypothesis we find that price improvement reflects lower adverse selection costs but does not lead to a reduction in the specialist's profit. Further, the quote adjustment following transactions at the quoted bid or ask price is more pronounced than the quote adjustment after transactions at prices inside the spread. Our results indicate that anonymity comes at the cost of higher adverse selection risk.

Using an arbitrage approach,

Numerous psychological studies show that weather conditions affect people's mood and that mood states are correlated with people's subjective evaluation of future probabilities. In this paper, a new approach is developed and asset market data are employed to test the mood-subjective probability relation. Cloud cover and precipitation volume serve as two mood proxies. Our statistical analysis suggests that bad mood states are characterized by investors placing higher probabilities on adverse events.

We consider the design and estimation of quadratic term structure models. We start with a list of stylized facts on interest rates and interest rate derivatives, classified into three layers: (1) general statistical properties, (2) forecasting relations, and (3) conditional dynamics. We then investigate the implications of each layer of property on model design and strive to establish a mapping between evidence and model structures. We calibrate a two-factor model that approximates these three layers of properties well, and show that a flexible specification for the market price of risk is important in capturing the stylized evidence in forecasting relations while factor interactions are indispensable in generating the hump-shaped dynamics of bond yields.

Fama and French (1992) show that size and book-to-price dominate CAPM beta and other variables such as the price-earnings ratio and dividend yield in explaining the cross-section of US stock returns. Comparable evidence for the UK points to a book-to-price effect, but not a size effect (Chan and Chui, 1996; Strong and Xu, 1997). In this paper, our first contribution is to show that a measure of research and development (RD) helps explain cross-sectional variation in UK stock returns. Our cross-sectional results on the association between stock returns and RD are consistent with recent US evidence reported by Lev and Sougiannis (1996, 1999) and Chan, Lakonishok and Sougiannis (2001).Fama and French (1993, 1995, 1996) also show that a three-factor model captures a high proportion of the time series variation in portfolio returns, again for the US. Our second contribution is to show, for the UK, that a modification to the three-factor model to take account of RD activity can significantly enhance the explanatory power of the three-factor model. We show that, as a practical matter, estimated risk premia based on the modified three-factor model can differ considerably from risk premia estimated using the CAPM or the three-factor model. In particular, risk premia for industries in which few firms undertake RD activities tend to be over-estimated.

This paper analyzes the issue costs and initial pricing of bonds in the international market. In particular, we investigate the determinants of three components of issue costs: underwriter fee, underwriter spread (the difference between the offering price and the guaranteed price to the issuer), and underpricing (the difference between the market price and the offering price). Total underwriter compensation increases with the bonds’ credit risk and maturity, but it is insignificantly related to issue size. Interestingly, underwriters appear to price some issue characteristics directly (by adjusting the fee) and other characteristics indirectly (by setting the guaranteed price). The two compensation components (fee and spread) are negatively related to each other. We provide evidence that this trade-off is consistent with income tax considerations, as well as with two-tier pricing by underwriters. We find no evidence of underpricing.