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New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(5), 1285-1311 open access
This paper uses a novel dataset of commodity-linked notes (CLNs) to examine the impact of the flows of financial investors on commodity futures prices. Investor flows into and out of CLNs are passed to and withdrawn from the futures markets via issuers' trades to hedge their CLN liabilities. The flows are not based on information about futures price movements but nonetheless cause increases and decreases in commodity futures prices when they are passed through to and withdrawn from the futures markets. These finding are consistent with the hypothesis that non-information-based financial investments have important impacts on commodity prices.

Asymmetric or Incomplete Information about Asset Values?

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(7), 2898-2936
We provide a new framework for using text as data in empirical models. The framework identifies salient information in unstructured text that can control for multidimensional heterogeneity among assets. We demonstrate the efficacy of the framework by reexamining principal-agent problems in residential real estate markets. We show that the agent-owned premiums reported in the extant literature dissipate when the salient textual information is included. The results suggest the previously reported agent-owned premiums suffer from an omitted variable bias, which prior studies incorrectly ascribed to market distortions associated with asymmetric information.

The Human Capital That Matters: Expected Returns and High-Income Households

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(9), 2523-2563
We propose a novel human capital model that decomposes aggregate income risk into high- and low-income risk. We find that high-income risk is priced, while low-income risk is insignificant. The high-income factor alone explains 77% of the cross-sectional variation in the twenty-five size and book-to-market portfolios, earns a risk premium of about 7% per year, and its pricing power extends to the full cross-section of individual stocks. It is also related to the value factor, suggesting that the value premium might be compensation for income risk. Overall, our evidence indicates that high-income risk is an important macroeconomic risk factor.

Does Option Trading Have a Pervasive Impact on Underlying Stock Prices?

Review of Financial Studies 2021 34(4), 1952-1986
The question of whether and to what extent option trading affects underlying stock prices has been of interest to researchers since exchange-based options trading began in 1973. Recent research presents evidence of an informational channel through which option trading affects stock prices by showing that option market makers’ stock trades to hedge new options positions cause the information reflected in option trading to be impounded into underlying equity prices. This paper provides evidence of a noninformational channel through which option market maker hedge rebalancing affects stock return volatility and the probability of large stock price moves.

Convertibles and Hedge Funds as Distributors of Equity Exposure

Review of Financial Studies 2012 25(10), 3077-3112
By buying convertibles and shorting the underlying stock, hedge funds distribute equity exposure to well-diversified shareholders. We find that firms with characteristics that make seasoned equity offerings expensive are more likely to issue convertibles to hedge funds. We conclude that hedge funds provide opportunities for firms to issue convertible securities at a lower cost than seasoned equity by serving as relatively low-cost distributors of equity exposure. A higher fraction of a convertible is privately placed with hedge funds when institutional ownership, stock liquidity, issue size, concurrent stock repurchases, and limitations on callability suggest that shorting costs will be lower.

Quote Disclosure and Price Discovery in Multiple-Dealer Financial Markets

Review of Financial Studies 1999 12(1), 37-59
We examine the effects of price disclosure on market performance in a continuous experimental multiple-dealer market in which seven professional market makers trade a single security. The dealers trade with one another and with computerized informed and liquidity traders. Our key comparison is between fully public price queues (pretrade transparent market) and bilateral quoting (pretrade opaque). We find that opening spreads are wider and trading volume is lower in the opaque markets due to higher search costs there. More importantly, however, higher search costs also induce more aggressive pricing strategies, so that price discovery is much faster in the opaque markets.