Knowledge that Transforms

This article analyzes a dynamic general equilibrium under a generalization of Merton's (1987) investor recognition hypothesis. A class of informationally constrained investors is assumed to implement only a particular trading strategy. The model implies that, all else being equal, a risk premium on a less visible stock need not be higher than that on a more visible stock with a lower volatility-contrary to results derived in a static mean-variance setting. A consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CAPM) augmented by the generalized investor recognition hypothesis emerges as a viable contender for explaining the cross-sectional variation in unconditional expected equity returns.

We investigate the relation between returns on stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts to evaluate potential explanations for the pervasive yet anomalous evidence of positive, short-horizon portfolio autocorrelations. Using a simple theoretical framework, we generate empirical implications for both microstructure and partial adjustment models. The major findings are (i) return autocorrelations of indices are generally positive even though futures contracts have autocorrelations close to zero, and (ii) these autocorrelation differences are maintained under conditions favorable for spot-futures arbitrage and are most prevalent during low-volume periods. These results point toward microstructure-based explanations and away from explanations based on behavioral models.

This article studies information blockages and the asymmetric release of information in a security market with fixed setup costs of trading. In this setting, "sidelined" investors may delay trading until price movements validate their private signals. Trading thereby internally generates the arrival of further news to the market. This leads to (1) negative skewness following price run-ups and positive skewness following price rundowns (even though the model is ex ante symmetric), (2) a lack of correspondence between large price changes and the arrival of external information, and (3) increases in volatility following large price changes.

This article analyzes the intraday interdependence of order flows and price movements for actively traded NYSE stocks and their Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)-traded options. Stock net trade volume (buyer-initiated volume minus seller-initiated volume) has strong predictive ability for stock and option quote revisions, but option net trade volume has no incremental predictive ability. This suggests that informed investors initiate trades in the stock market but not in the option market. On the other hand, both stock and option quote revisions have predictive ability for each other. Thus, while information in the stock market is contained in both quote revisions and trades, information in the option market is contained only in quote revisions.

We examine the optimal trading strategy for a CRRA investor who maximizes the expected utility of wealth on a finite date and faces transaction costs. Closed-form solutions are obtained when this date is uncertain. We then show a sequence of analytical solutions converge to the solution to the problem with a deterministic finite horizon. Consistent with the common life-cycle investment advice, the optimal trading strategy is found to be horizon dependent and largely buy and hold. Moreover, it might be optimal for the investor in our model not to buy any stock, even when the risk premium is positive. Further analysis of the optimal policy is also provided.