Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract This paper investigates whether labor unions use proposals opportunistically to influence contract negotiations. Our empirical strategy relies on the observation that proposals have higher bargaining-chip value in contract expiration years, when a new contract must be negotiated. We find that in contract expiration years compared with nonexpiration years, unions increase their proposal rate by one-fifth, particularly proposals concerning executive compensation. Union proposals made during expiration years are less likely to be supported by other shareholders or a leading proxy advisor; the market reacts negatively to union proposals in expiration years; and withdrawn union proposals are accompanied by higher wage settlements. Received March 14, 2017; editorial decision July 19, 2018 by Editor Wei Jiang. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online

We show that benchmark-linked convex incentives can lead risk-averse money managers aware of mispricing to overinvest in overpriced securities. In the model, the managers’ risk-seeking behavior varies in response to the interaction of mispricing with convexity and benchmarking concerns. Convexity effects can exacerbate the manager’s overinvestment in overvalued nonbenchmark securities. In contrast, they potentially offset the benchmarking effects studied in the literature, leading to underinvestment in overpriced benchmark securities. Under correlated mispricing across assets, our model rationalizes positive positions in nonbenchmark, negative risk premium (i.e., “bubble”) securities and “pairs trading” in two overvalued securities. Our findings help explain several empirical puzzles.

This paper uses option prices to learn about the equity price uncertainty surrounding information released on earnings announcement dates. To do this, we introduce reduced-form models and estimators to separate price uncertainty about earnings announcements from normal day-to-day volatility. Empirically, we find strong support for the importance of earnings announcements. We find that the anticipated price uncertainty is quantitatively large, varies across time, and is informative about the future return volatility. Finally, we quantify the impact of earnings announcements on formal option pricing models. Received April 13, 2017; editorial decision February 5, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Finance professionals commonly set prices based on the analysis of recently closed, comparable transactions. Using data on syndicated loans, we exploit the lag between loans’ closing dates and their inclusion in a widely used comparables database to identify the effect of past transactions on new transaction pricing. Comparables pricing is an important determinant of individual loan spreads, but a failure to account for overlap in information across loans leads to pricing mistakes. Comparables used repeatedly are overweighted as they develop redundant channels of influence on later transactions. Market conditions prevailing at the time a comparable was priced also unduly influence subsequent loans. Received May 23, 2016; editorial decision January 23, 2018 by Editor Robin Greenwood.

Mandated public dissemination of over-the-counter transactions in corporate debt securities via the TRACE system dramatically reduces the average short-term market reaction to rating downgrades by both issuer-paid and investor-paid rating agencies. Ratings become relatively more accurate predictors of default and more sensitive to innovations in credit spreads after the introduction of dissemination. However, in transparent markets, they provide no significant information about future defaults beyond that provided by credit spreads. Dissemination increases the efficiency of information aggregation and transmission in bond markets, thereby reducing the incremental information content of ratings and the price impact of rating revisions.

[Because most mortgages in the United States are securitized in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), yield spreads on MBS are a key determinant of homeowners’ funding costs. We study variation in MBS spreads in the time series and across securities and document that MBS spreads show a pronounced cross-sectional smile with respect to the securities’ coupon rates. We present a new pricing model that uses “stripped” MBS prices to identify the contribution of non-interest-rate prepayment risk to spreads and find that this risk explains the smile, whereas the time-series spread variation is mostly accounted for by nonprepayment risk factors.]

How do low interest rates affect investor behavior? We demonstrate that individuals “reach for yield, ” that is, have a greater appetite for risk-taking when interest rates are low. Using randomized investment experiments holding fixed risk premiums and risks, we show low interest rates lead to significantly higher allocations to risky assets among diverse populations. The behavior is not easily explained by conventional portfolio choice theory or institutional frictions. We then propose and provide evidence of mechanisms related to investor psychology, including reference dependence and salience. We also present results using observational data on household investment decisions. Received July 18, 2017; editorial decision July 30, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

[Researchers have long known about backfill bias in hedge fund databases. The most common treatments include either retaining all backfilled returns or truncating a fixed number of returns from each return series. However, we show that truncation largely preserves backfilled returns and document that either of these backfill treatments can lead to biased empirical findings, including cross-sectional results. Thus, our findings show that the best practice for empirical tests is to remove returns prior to the listing date. Because most databases do not have listing dates, we propose a novel method to infer unavailable listing dates.]

Abstract We study credit allocation across firms and its real effects during China’s economic stimulus plan of 2009–2010. We match confidential loan-level data from the nineteen largest Chinese banks with firm-level data on manufacturing firms. We document that the stimulus-driven credit expansion disproportionately favored state-owned firms and firms with a lower average product of capital, reversing the process of capital reallocation toward private firms that characterized China’s high growth before 2008. We argue that implicit government guarantees for state-connected firms become more prominent during recessions and can explain this reversal. Received August 23, 2017; editorial decision November 15, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan.

Many studies report that the size effect in the cross-section of stock returns disappeared after the early 1980s. This paper shows that its disappearance can be attributed to negative shocks to the profitability of small firms and positive shocks to big firms. After adjusting for the price impact of profitability shocks, we find a robust size effect in the cross-section of expected returns after the early 1980s. Our results highlight the importance of in-sample cash-flow shocks in understanding cross-sectional return predictability.Received April 2, 2014; editorial decision August 6, 2018 by Editor Laura Starks.