Knowledge that Transforms

We develop a novel methodology to infer the amount of capital allocated to quantitative equity arbitrage strategies. Using this methodology, which exploits time-variation in the cross-section of short interest, we document that the amount of capital devoted to value and momentum strategies has grown significantly since the late 1980s. We provide evidence that this increase in capital has resulted in lower strategy returns. However, consistent with theories of limited arbitrage, we show that strategy-level capital flows are influenced by past strategy returns and strategy return volatility and that arbitrage capital is most limited during times when strategies perform best. This suggests that the growth of arbitrage capital may not completely eliminate returns to these strategies.

Can concern with relative standing, which has been shown to influence consumption and labor supply, also increase borrowing and the likelihood of financial distress? We find that perceived peer income contributes to debt and the likelihood of financial distress among those who consider themselves poorer than their peers. We use unique responses describing perceived peer characteristics from a Dutch population-wide survey to handle two major challenges of uncovering social interaction effects on borrowing: (1) debts, unlike conspicuous consumption, are often hidden from peers and (2) location is missing in anonymized data. We employ several approaches to uncover exogenous, rather than correlated, effects.

We study the credit supply effects of the unexpected freeze of the European interbank market, using exhaustive Portuguese loan-level data. We find that banks that rely more on interbank borrowing before the crisis decrease their credit supply more during the crisis. The credit supply reduction is stronger for firms that are smaller, with weaker banking relationships. Small firms cannot compensate the credit crunch with other sources of debt. Furthermore, the impact of illiquidity on the credit crunch is stronger for less solvent banks. Finally, we find no overall positive effects of central bank liquidity but instead higher hoarding of liquidity.

We argue that internal capital market imperatives of business groups i.e., reallocation of capital across group firms, influences an affiliated firm's dividend policy. Intuition is developed in a model in which business group insiders distribute dividends from cash-rich firms and use their share of payout to invest in other affiliated firms. Employing multi-country panel-data, we find support for this channel: Dividends by a group firm are positively related with equity-financed investments by its affiliated firms. Results are corroborated by exploiting variation in a firm's investment opportunity generated by changes in import tariff policy: a shock to investment opportunity of an affiliated firm is propagated to dividend policies of other firms in its group.

This study examines the relation between securitization and loan performance using a comprehensive dataset from a major national mortgage lender. Loans remaining on the bank's balance sheet ex post incurred higher delinquency rates than sold loans, contrasting the negative relation between screening efforts and ex ante probability of loan sale explored by prior studies. Moreover, the performance gap between sold and retained loans was wider among the subsample of loans that were perceived as easier to resell. The investors' seeming advantage over the originating bank can mostly be explained by information revealed during the time between loan origination and sale.

This paper examines the impact of real estate prices on firm capital structure decisions. For a typical U.S. listed company, a one-standard-deviation increase in predicted value of firm pledgeable collateral translates into a 3 percentage points increase in firm leverage ratio. The identification strategy employs a triple interaction of MSA-level land supply elasticity, real estate prices, and a measure of a firm's real estate holdings as an exogenous source of variation in firm collateral values. Firms significantly change their debt structure in response to collateral value appreciation. The results indicate the importance of collateral values in mitigating potential informational imperfections.

We study the trading behavior of investors in an entire stock market. Using an account level dataset of all trades on the Istanbul Stock Exchange in 2005, we identify investors with similar trading behavior as linked in an empirical investor network (EIN). Consistent with the theory of information networks, we find that central investors earn higher returns and trade earlier than peripheral investors with respect to information events. Overall, our results support the view that information diffusion among the investor population influences trading behavior and returns.

We infer conditional swap rate moments model independently from swaption cubes. Conditional volatility and skewness exhibit systematic variation across swap maturities and option expiries (conditional kurtosis less so), with conditional skewness sometimes changing sign. Conditional skewness displays some relation to the level and volatility of swap rates but is most consistently related to the conditional correlation between swap rates and swap rate variances. From realized excess returns on synthetic variance and skewness swap contracts, we infer that variance and (to a lesser extent) skewness risk premia are negative and time varying. For the most part, results hold true in both the USD and EUR markets and in both precrisis and crisis subsamples. We design and estimate a dynamic term structure model that captures much of the dynamics of conditional swap rate moments.

We model the impact of public and private ownership structures on firms' incentives to invest in innovative projects. We show that it is optimal to go public when exploiting existing ideas and optimal to go private when exploring new ideas. This result derives from the fact that private firms are less transparent to outside investors than are public firms. In private firms, insiders can time the market by choosing an early exit strategy if they receive bad news. This option makes insiders more tolerant of failures and thus more inclined to invest in innovative projects. In contrast, the prices of publicly traded securities react quickly to good news, providing insiders with incentives to choose conventional projects and cash in early.

Based on a sample of venture capital (VC)-backed IPO firms, we examine whether tolerance for failure spurs corporate innovation. We develop a novel measure of VC investors' failure tolerance by examining their willingness to continue investing in underperforming ventures. We find that IPO firms backed by more failure-tolerant VC investors are significantly more innovative and VC failure tolerance is particularly important for ventures that are subject to high failure risk. We show that these results are not driven by endogenous matching between failure-tolerant VC firms and start-ups with high ex ante innovative potential. We also examine the determinants of the cross-sectional heterogeneity in a VC firm's failure tolerance. We find that both capital constraints and career concerns can negatively distort a VC firm's failure tolerance. Less experienced VC firms are more exposed to these distortions, making them less failure tolerant than are more established VC firms.