Knowledge that Transforms

We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with "fragile beliefs" are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European credit default swaps (CDS) data shows that agents require a time-varying risk premium for bearing state uncertainty. The model outperforms affine specifications with the same number of state variables, suggesting that there are important nonlinearities in credit spreads that are captured by our model. Contagion drives most of the variation in CDS spreads, especially before the crisis. However, economic fundamentals account for a significant fraction during the crisis.

We provide a comprehensive study of the liquidity of spot foreign exchange (FX) rates over more than two decades and a large cross-section of currencies. First, we show that FX liquidity can be accurately measured with daily and readily available data. Second, we demonstrate that FX liquidity declines with funding constraints and global risk, supporting theoretical models relating funding and market liquidity. In these distressed circumstances, liquidity tends to evaporate more for developed and riskier currencies. Finally, we show stronger comovements of FX liquidities in distressed markets, especially when funding is constrained, volatility is high, and FX speculators incur losses.

We present a model that explains why investment bankers struggle to manage conflicts of interest. Banks can build a type reputation for technical competence by performing complex deals that may not serve their clients' interest; on the other hand, banks can sustain a behavioral reputation by refraining from doing so. A behavioral reputation is a luxury reserved for banks that have proven their abilities. The model sheds light on conflicts between the trading and advisory divisions of investment banks, as well as the consequences of technological change for time variation in the relative strength of behavioral- and type-reputation concerns.

Large institutional investors dominate many financial markets. This paper develops a consumption-based model of markets in which all institutional traders recognize their impact on prices. Bilateral (buyer and seller) market power changes efficiency and arbitrage properties of equilibrium. Predictions match temporary and permanent price effects of supply shocks, order breakup, limits to arbitrage, nonneutrality of trading frequency, and real effects of shocks and announcements in periods other than event dates. Maximizing welfare and stabilizing liquidity through disclosure of information about fundamentals presents a trade-off. Equilibrium representation as "trading against price impact" provides a link with the industry's practice.

We build a model of universities combining their real production decisions with their choice of endowment size and asset allocation. Variation in opportunity cost, that is, the productivity of internal projects, has a first-order effect on these choices. Adding the UPMIFA-mandated 7% payout constraint, the endowment size and asset allocations match those empirically observed. This constraint has little effect on universities that do not value the output of their internal projects but harms those that do: it prevents the endowment's use as an effective buffer stock, thereby increasing the volatility of production, and it slows the growth of the most productive universities.

We exploit an optional colocation upgrade at NASDAQ OMX Stockholm to assess how speed affects market liquidity. Liquidity improves for the overall market and even for noncolocated trading entities. We find that the upgrade is pursued mainly by participants who engage in market making. Those that upgrade use their enhanced speed to reduce their exposure to adverse selection and to relax their inventory constraints. In particular, the upgraded trading entities remain competitive at the best bid and offer even when their inventories are in their top decile. Our results suggest that increasing the speed of marketmaking participants benefits market liquidity.

Mutual funds vary greatly in their reliance on proxy advisory recommendations. Over 25% of funds rely almost entirely on Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) recommendations, while other funds place little weight on them. Funds with higher benefits and lower costs of researching the items up for vote are less likely to rely on ISS. These actively voting funds are less likely to vote in a "one-size-fits-all" manner, and they earn higher alphas, consistent with benefits from this allocation of resources. For the underlying firms, the presence of actively voting funds mitigates the influence of ISS and helps sway shareholder votes toward value-maximizing outcomes.

This paper investigates the value of firm political connections using a regression discontinuity design in a sample of close, off-cycle U.S. congressional elections. I compare firms donating to winning candidates and firms donating to losing candidates and find that postelection abnormal equity returns are 3% higher for firms donating to winning candidates. Connections to politicians serving on powerful congressional committees, such as appropriations and taxation, are especially valuable and impact contributing firms sales. Firms' campaign contributions are correlated with other political activities such as lobbying and hiring former government employees, suggesting that firms take coordinated actions to build political networks.

This study shows that weather-based indicators of mood impact perceptions of mispricing and trading decisions of institutional investors. Using survey and disaggregated trade data, we show that relatively cloudier days increase perceived overpricing in individual stocks and the Dow Jones Industrial Index and increase selling propensities of institutions. We introduce stock-level measures of investor mood; investor optimism positively impacts stock returns among stocks with higher arbitrage costs, and stocks experiencing similar investor mood exhibit return comovement. These findings complement existing studies on how weather impacts stock index returns and identify another channel through which it can manifest.

We investigate whether short-termism distorts the investment decisions of stock market-listed firms. To do so, we compare the investment behavior of observably similar public and private firms, using a new data source on private U.S. firms and assuming for identification that closely held private firms are subject to fewer short-termist pressures. Our results show that compared with private firms, public firms invest substantially less and are less responsive to changes in investment opportunities, especially in industries in which stock prices are most sensitive to earnings news. These findings are consistent with the notion that short-termist pressures distort investment decisions.