Knowledge that Transforms

[This article investigates the out-of-sample predictability of bond excess returns. We assess the economic value of the forecasting ability of empirical models based on longterm forward interest rates in a dynamic asset allocation strategy. The results show that the information content of forward rates does not generate systematic economic value to investors. Indeed, these models do not outperform the no-predictability benchmark. Furthermore, their relative performance deteriorates over time.]

[We investigate whether skilled hedge fund managers are more likely to pursue unique investment strategies that result in superior performance. We propose a measure of the distinctiveness of a fund's investment strategy based on historical fund return data. We call the measure the "Strategy Distinctiveness Index" (SDI). We document substantial cross-sectional variations as well as strong persistence in SDI. Our main result indicates that, on average, a higher SDI is associated with better subsequent performance. After adjusting for risk, funds in the highest SDI quintile outperform funds in the lowest quintile by 3.5% in the subsequent year.]

[This article studies the central role of the credit market. We show that the credit market facilitates optimal risk sharing by allowing less risk-averse investors to take on levered positions and consume more risk. The equilibrium amount behaves procyclically when aggregate consumption is low but countercyclically when it is high. The varying size of the credit market modifies the amount of risk sharing, which in turn influences asset prices such as expected stock returns, stock return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates. Our article provides a frictionless benchmark for the role and the behavior of the credit market.]

[This article examines the relationship between a mortgage originator's affiliation with the sponsor of a securitization or the servicer of the securitized loans and the default rate on the securitized mortgages. We find that default rates are significantly lower for securitizations in which the originator is affiliated with the sponsor or servicer. Consistent with investors expecting performance to vary with affiliation, we find that the initial yields on mortgagebacked securities (MBS) are lower and the percentage of AAA-rated securities issued against the securitized pool of loans is higher when the originator is affiliated with either the sponsor or servicer.]

[One of the most rigorous methodologies in the corporate governance literature uses firms' reactions to industry shocks to characterize the quality of governance. This methodology can produce the wrong answer unless one considers the ways firms compete. Because macro-level shocks reverberate differently at the firm level depending on whether a firm has a cost structure that requires significant adjustment, the quality of governance can only be elucidated accurately analyzing a firm's business strategy and their corporate governance. These differences can help one determine whether the fruits of a positive macro-level shock have been expropriated by insiders. Using the example of Indian firms, we show that an influential finding is reversed when these differences are considered. We further argue that the conventional wisdom about tunneling and business groups will need to be reformulated in light of the data, methodology, and findings presented here.]

[Working with one of the largest brokerages in Germany, we record what happens when unbiased investment advice is offered to a random set of approximately 8,000 active retail customers out of the brokerage's several hundred thousand retail customers. We find that investors who most need the financial advice are least likely to obtain it. The investors who do obtain the advice (about 5%), however, hardly follow the advice and do not improve their portfolio efficiency by much. Overall, our results imply that the mere availability of unbiased financial advice is a necessary but not sufficient condition for benefiting retail investors.]

[We examine how investor preferences and beliefs affect trading in relation to past gains and losses. The probability of selling as a function of profit is V-shaped; at short holding periods, investors are more likely to sell big losers than small ones. There is little evidence of an upward jump in selling at zero profits. These findings provide no clear indication that realization preference explains trading. Furthermore, the disposition effect is not driven by a simple direct preference for selling a stock by virtue of having a gain versus a loss. Trading based on belief revisions can potentially explain these findings.]

[Recent cases of hedge fund fraud have caused large losses for investors and have fueled the debate regarding the ability of regulators to oversee the industry. This article proposes a set of performance flags, based on suspicious patterns in returns, as indicators of a heightened risk of fraud. We collect a sample of hedge funds charged with legal or regulatory violations and find that funds charged with misappropriation, overvaluation, misrepresentation, or Ponzi schemes trigger the performance flags at a higher frequency than other funds.]

[We develop a stock return-predictive measure based on an efficient aggregation of the portfolio holdings of all actively managed U.S. domestic equity mutual funds, and use this model to study the source of fund managers' stock selection abilities. This "generalized inverse alpha" (GIA) approach reveals differences in the ability of managers to predict firms' future earnings from fundamental research. Notably, the GIA's return-forecasting power is not subsumed by publicly available quantitative predictors, such as momentum, value, and earnings quality, nor is it subsumed by methods shown in past research to forecast stock returns using fund holdings or trades.]

[We solve for a firm's optimal cash holding policy within a continuous time, contingent claims framework using dividends, short-term borrowing, and equity issues as controls assuming mean reversion of earnings. Optimal cash is non-monotone in business conditions and increasing in the level of long-term debt. The model matches closely a wide range of empirical benchmarks and predicts cash and leverage dynamics in line with the empirical literature. Firm value is quite insensitive to changes in the level of long-term debt. The model has interesting implications for asset substitution, hedging, and pecking order. Growth opportunities do not greatly affect cash holding policy.]