Knowledge that Transforms

We hypothesize that a source of commonality in a stock's liquidity arises from the correlated liquidity demand of the stock's investors. Focusing on correlated trading of mutual funds, we find that stocks with high mutual fund ownership have comovements in liquidity about twice as large as those for stocks with low mutual fund ownership. Further analysis shows that the channels for these comovements derive from both common ownership across funds and funds' correlated liquidity shocks. We obtain inferences supporting causality from an exogenous flow shock for mutual funds in the aftermath of the 2003 mutual fund scandal.

The Home Affordable Modification Program's (HAMP's) Principal Reduction Alternative (PRA) is a government-sponsored program to reduce the principal balances and monthly mortgage payments of troubled borrowers. We examine the effect of principal forgiveness on borrowers' subsequent mortgage default. The program's rules imply a kink in the relationship between principal forgiveness and a borrower's initial equity level. Our identification strategy exploits the quasi-experimental variation in principal forgiveness generated by this kink using a regression kink design (RKD), which compares the relationship between initial equity and default on either side of the kink. We estimate that HAMP PRA reduced the quarterly default hazard from 3.8% to 3.1%.

We use neural data collected from an experimental asset market to measure regret preferences while subjects trade stocks. When subjects observe a positive return for a stock they chose not to purchase, a regret signal is observed in an area of the brain that is commonly active during reward processing. Subjects are unwilling to repurchase stocks that have recently increased in price, even though this is suboptimal in our experiment. The strength of stock repurchasing mistakes is correlated with the neural measures of regret. Subjects with high rates of repurchasing mistakes also exhibit large disposition effects.

High expected inflation is known to predict low future real growth. We show that, relative to nondurable goods sectors of the economy, such predictability is significantly more pronounced in durable sectors. Consistent with this macroeconomic evidence, the equity returns of durable goods-producing firms have a larger negative exposure to expected inflation risks. We estimate a two-good recursive utility model that features persistent growth fluctuations and inflation nonneutrality for durable and nondurable consumption. Our model can quantitatively account for the levels and volatilities of bond and equity prices, and correlations of equity returns with bond returns and with expected inflation.

We analyze a model where investors use a credit rating to decide whether to finance a firm. The rating quality depends on unobservable effort exerted by a credit rating agency (CRA). We study optimal compensation schemes for the CRA when a planner, the firm, or investors order the rating. Rating errors are larger when the firm orders it than when investors do (and both produce larger errors than is socially optimal). Investors overuse ratings relative to the firm or planner. A trade-off in providing time-consistent incentives embedded in the optimal compensation structure makes the CRA slow to acknowledge mistakes.

Hundreds of papers and factors attempt to explain the cross-section of expected returns. Given this extensive data mining, it does not make sense to use the usual criteria for establishing significance. Which hurdle should be used for current research? Our paper introduces a new multiple testing framework and provides historical cutoffs from the first empirical tests in 1967 to today. A new factor needs to clear a much higher hurdle, with a t-statistic greater than 3.0. We argue that most claimed research findings in financial economics are likely false.

We study how relationship lending and transaction lending vary over the business cycle. We develop a model in which relationship banks gather information on their borrowers, allowing them to provide loans to profitable firms during a crisis. Because of the services they provide, operating costs of relationship banks are higher than those of transaction banks. Relationship banks charge a higher intermediation spread in normal times, but offer continuation lending at more favourable terms than transaction banks to profitable firms in a crisis. Using credit register information for Italian banks before and after the Lehman Brothers' default, we test the theoretical predictions of the model.

We present a model in which firms compete for scarce managerial talent ("alpha") and managers are risk averse. When managers cannot move across firms after being hired, employers learn about their talent, efficiently allocate them to projects, and provide insurance to low-quality managers. When, instead, managers can move across firms, firmlevel coinsurance is no longer feasible, but managers may self-insure by switching employer to delay the revelation of their true quality. However, this results in inefficient project assignment, with low-quality managers handling projects that are too risky for them.

We show that higher institutional ownership causes firms to pay more dividends. Our identification relies on a discontinuity in ownership around Russell index thresholds. Our estimates indicate that a one-percentage-point increase in institutional ownership causes a $7 million (8%) increase in dividends. We also find differences in shareholder proposals and voting patterns that suggest that even nonactivist institutions play an important role in monitoring firm behavior. The effect of institutional ownership on dividends is stronger for firms with higher expected agency costs.

How do private equity firms affect their portfolio companies? We document operational changes in restaurant chain buyouts using comprehensive health inspection records. Storelevel operational practices improve after private equity buyout, as restaurants become cleaner, safer, and better maintained. Supporting a causal interpretation, this effect is stronger in chain-owned stores than in franchised locations—"twin" restaurants over which private equity owners have limited control. These changes are particularly apparent when private equity partners have prior industry experience. The results suggest that by bringing in industry expertise, private equity firms improve firm operations.