Knowledge that Transforms

The optimal portfolio strategy is developed for an investor who has detected an asset pricing anomaly but is not certain that the anomaly is genuine rather than merely apparent. The analysis takes account of the fact that the parameters of both the underlying asset pricing model and the anomalous returns are estimated rather than known. The value that an investor would place on the ability to invest to exploit the apparent anomaly is also derived and illustrative calculations are presented for the Fama and French SMB and HML portfolios, whose returns are anomalous relative to the CAPM.

Journal Article The Impact of Debt Financing on Entry and Exit in a Duopoly Get access Bart M. Lambrecht Bart M. Lambrecht University of Cambridge Address correspondence to Bart Lambrecht, Judge Institute of Management Studies, Cambridge CB2 1AG, UK, or e-mail: [email protected]. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 14, Issue 3, 1 July 2001, Pages 765–804, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/14.3.765 Published: 22 June 2015

This article develops precise connections among two general approaches to building interest rate models: a general equilibrium approach using a pricing kernel and the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton framework based on specifying forward rate volatilities and the market price of risk. The connections exploit the observation that a pricing kernel is uniquely determined by its drift. Through these connections we provide, for any arbitrage-free term structure model, a representative-consumer real production economy supporting that term structure model in equilibrium. We put particular emphasis on models in which interest rates remain positive. By modeling the dynamics of the drift of the pricing kernel, we construct a new family of Markovian-positive interest rate models.

German dividends typically carry a tax credit which makes the dividend worth 42.86% more to a taxable German shareholder than to a tax-exempt or foreign shareholder. This results in a penalty for foreign investors who buy and hold German dividend-paying stocks. I document that, as a result of the credit, the ex-day drop exceeds the dividend by more than one-half of the tax credit, and show that futures and option prices embed more than one-half of the tax credit. The existence of the credit creates opportunities for cross-border tax arbitrage—in which foreign holders of German stock transfer the dividend to German shareholders—and implies that it is tax efficient for foreign investors to hold derivatives rather than investing directly in German stocks. The empirical findings are consistent with costly tax arbitrage activity by German investors, who face tax risk due to antiarbitrage rules. Since dividend tax credits exist in many other countries, the findings are potentially of broad interest.

In this article we ask: what kind of information and how much of it should firms voluntarily disclose? Three types of disclosures are considered. One is information that complements the information available only to informed investors (to-be-processed complementary information). The second is information that is orthogonal to that which any investor can acquire and thus complements the information available to all investors (preprocessed complementary information). And the third is information that substitutes for the information of the informed investors in that it reveals to all what was previously known only by the informed (substitute information). Our main results are as follows. First, in equilibrium, all types of firms voluntarily disclose all three types of information. Second, in contrast to the existing literature, complementary information disclosure by firms strengthens investors’ private incentives to acquire information. Substitute information disclosure weakens private information acquisition incentives. Third, while complementary information disclosure has an ambiguous effect on financial innovation incentives, substitute information disclosure weakens those incentives.

We study the asset pricing implications of an economy where solvency constraints are endogenously determined to deter agents from defaulting while allowing as much risk sharing as possible. We solve analytically for efficient allocations and for the corresponding asset prices, portfolio holdings, and solvency constraints for a simple example. Then we calibrate a more general model to U.S. aggregate as well as idiosyncratic income processes. We find equity premia, risk premia for long-term bonds, and Sharpe ratios of magnitudes similar to the U.S. data for lowrisk aversion and a low time-discount factor.

This article develops a theoretical model to explain the permanent price impact asymmetry between buyer- and seller-initiated block trades (the permanent price impact of buys is larger than that of sells). The model shows how the trading strategy of institutional portfolio managers creates a difference between the information content of buys and sells. The main implication of the model is that the history of price performance influences the asymmetry: the longer the run-up in a stock's price, the less the asymmetry. The intensity of institutional trading and the frequency of information events affect the asymmetry differently depending on recent price performance.

The volatility smile changed drastically around the crash of 1987, and newoption pricing models have been proposed to accommodate that change. Deterministic volatility models allowfor more flexible volatility surfaces but refrain from introducing additional risk factors. Thus, options are still redundant securities. Alternatively, stochastic models introduce additional risk factors, and options are then needed for spanning of the pricing kernel. We develop a statistical test based on this difference in spanning. Using daily S&P 500 index options data from 1986–1995, our tests suggest that both in- and out-of-the-money options are needed for spanning. The findings are inconsistent with deterministic volatility models but are consistent with stochastic models that incorporate additional priced risk factors, such as stochastic volatility, interest rates, or jumps.

This article presents a new methodology for testing economic restrictions on the price schedules offered in a limit order book that are based on (i) break-even conditions for marginal limit orders and (ii) rational updating conditions for order book revisions over time. Using order flow data from the Stockholm Stock Exchange, I find strong evidence of insufficient depth in the limit order books relative to the theoretical predictions. An extended model, which allows the model parameters to depend on market conditions, captures some of the systematic variation in the observed order book depth.

This article examines how to properly specify and test for factors that affect exchange-rate exposure. Starting from theoretical underpinnings and a sample of U.S. manufacturing industries between 1979 and 1995, we find that 4 of 18 industry groups are significantly exposed to exchange-rate movements through the effect of industry competitive structure, export share, and imported input share. On average, a 1% appreciation of the dollar decreases the return of the average industry by 0.13%. Consistent with our model’s predictions, as an industry’s markups fall (rise), its exchange-rate exposure increases (decreases).