Knowledge that Transforms

When a loan is sold, it goes to a lower-cost financing source than its originator. Yet, lending markets are less than perfectly competitive. Despite the lower funding cost, therefore, the loan price is not necessarily more favorable to the borrower. However, corporate borrowers are averse to the participation of their loans to other lenders because of the complexity of dealing with multiple banks and the potential information costs of the sale announcement. Consequently, I conjecture that the borrower extracts a price concession in exchange for allowing the bank to sell participations in the loan. Using a hand-matched dataset of loans, borrowers, and lenders, I find that the average yield spread on loans originated by active loan sellers is about 20 basis points lower than the average spread on loans originated by moderate loan sellers. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

The evidence in Fama and Bliss (1987) that forward interest rates forecast future spot interest rates for horizons beyond a year repeats in the out-of-sample 1986--2004 period. But the inference that this forecast power is due to mean reversion of the spot rate toward a constant expected value no longer seems valid. Instead, the predictability of the spot rate captured by forward rates seems to be due to mean reversion toward a time-varying expected value that is subject to a sequence of apparently permanent shocks that are on balance positive to mid-1981 and on balance negative thereafter. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Relations between foreign exchange risk premia, exchange rate volatility, and the volatilities of the pricing kernels for the underlying currencies, are derived under the assumption of integrated capital markets. As predicted, the volatility of exchange rates is significantly associated with the estimated volatility of the relevant pricing kernels, and foreign exchange risk premia are significantly related to both the estimated volatility of the pricing kernels and the volatility of exchange rates. The estimated foreign exchange risk premia mostly satisfy Fama's (1984) necessary conditions for explaining the forward premium puzzle, but the puzzle remains in several cases even after taking account of the pricing kernel volatilities. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Target firms often face bidders that are not equally well informed, which reduces competition, because bidders with less information fear the winner’s curse more. We analyze how targets should be sold in this situation. We show that a sequential procedure can extract the highest possible transaction price. The target first offers an exclusive deal to a better-informed bidder, without considering a less well-informed bidder. If rejected, the target offers either an exclusive deal to the less well-informed bidder, or a modified first-price auction. Deal protection devices can be used to enhance a target’s commitment to the procedure. (JEL G34, K22, D44)

This article shows how to evaluate the performance of managed portfolios using stochastic discount factors (SDFs) from continuous-time term structure models. These models imply empirical factors that include time averages of the underlying state variables. The approach addresses a performance measurement bias, described by Goetzmann, Ingersoll, and Ivkovic (2000) and Ferson and Khang (2002), arising because fund managers may trade within the return measurement interval or hold positions in replicable options. The empirical factors contribute explanatory power in factor model regressions and reduce model pricing errors. We illustrate the approach on US government bond funds during 1986–2000.

We study whether differences in access to credit cause focused firms to perform differently from diversified firms in the product market. Prior work has identified binding credit constraints for bank-dependent firms during recessions. We assess whether corporate diversification alleviates these constraints. We find that during recessions sales growth rates drop more for bank-dependent focused firms than for rival segments of bank-dependent diversified firms. We also find that during recessions inventory growth rates drop more for bank-dependent focused firms than for bank-dependent diversified firms even after we control for contemporaneous sales growth. Consistent with a credit constraint explanation, we find no difference in the sensitivities to recessions of bank-independent focused and bank-independent diversified firms. (JEL G30, G31, G32)

We use a production-based asset pricing model to investigate whether financing constraints are quantitatively important for the cross-section of returns. Specifically, we use GMM to explore the stochastic Euler equation imposed on returns by optimal investment. Our methods can identify the impact of financial frictions on the stochastic discount factor with cyclical variations in cost of external funds. We find that financing frictions provide a common factor that improves the pricing of cross-sectional returns. Moreover, the shadow cost of external funds exhibits strong procyclical variation, so that financial frictions are more important in relatively good economic conditions. (JEL E22, E44, G12) Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

This article evaluates the impact of capital controls and their liberalization on the activities of US multinational firms. These firms attempt to circumvent capital controls by reducing reported local profitability and increasing the frequency of dividend repatriations. As a result, the reported profit impact of local capital controls is comparable with the effect of 27% higher corporate tax rates, and affiliates located in countries imposing capital controls are 9.8% more likely than other affiliates to remit dividends to parent companies. Multinational affiliates located in countries with capital controls face 5.25% higher interest rates on local borrowing than do affiliates of the same parent borrowing locally in countries without capital controls. Capital control liberalizations are associated with significant increases in multinational activity—property, plant, and equipment grow at 6.9% faster annual rates following liberalizations. The combination of the costliness of avoidance and higher interest rates discourages investment in countries with capital controls, and this effect is reversed upon liberalization of controls. (JEL F21, F23, F36, F42, G15, G32, G34)

This article studies the pricing of options in an extended Black Scholes economy in which the underlying asset is not perfectly liquid. The resulting liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic supply curve, with the transaction price being a function of the trade size. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, the supply curve is upward sloping with purchases executed at higher prices and sales at lower prices. Optimal discrete time hedging strategies are then derived. Empirical evidence reveals a significant liquidity cost intrinsic to every option.

We analyze contemporaneous and predictive relations between credit ratings and measures of equity market liquidity and find that common measures of adverse selection, which reflect a portion of the uncertainty about future firm value, are larger when credit ratings are poorer. We also show that future rating changes can be predicted using current levels of adverse selection. Collectively, our results validate widely used microstructure measures of adverse selection and offer new insights into the value of credit ratings and the specific nature of the information they contain.