Knowledge that Transforms

We introduce uncertainty into Holmstrom and Milgrom (1987) to study optimal long-term contracting with learning. In a dynamic relationship, the agent’s shirking not only reduces current performance, but also increases the agent’s information rent due to the persistent belief manipulation effect. We characterize the optimal contract using the dynamic programming technique in which information rent is the unique state variable. In the optimal contract, the optimal effort is front-loaded and stochastically decreases over time. Furthermore, the optimal contract exhibits an option-like feature in that incentives increase after good performance. Implications about managerial incentives and asset management compensations are discussed. Received August 31, 2015; editorial decision October 20, 2016 by Editor Francesca Cornelli.

We study the effect of a bond’s place in its issuer’s maturity structure on credit risk. Using a structural model as motivation, we argue that bonds due relatively late in their issuers’ maturity structure have greater credit risk than do bonds due relatively early. Empirically, we find robust evidence that these later bonds have larger yield spreads and greater comovement with equity and that the magnitude of the effects is consistent with model predictions for investment-grade bonds. Our results highlight the importance of bond-specific credit risk for understanding corporate bond prices. Received January 1, 2016; editorial decision June 6, 2017 by Editor Robin Greenwood.

We show that banks manipulate borrowers’ credit ratings before sharing them with competing banks. Using a unique feature on the timing of information disclosure of a public credit registry, we disentangle the effect of manipulation from learning of credit ratings. We show that banks downgrade high-quality borrowers for which they have positive private information to protect their informational rents. Banks also upgrade low-quality borrowers with multiple lenders to avoid creditor runs. Our results suggest that credit ratings manipulation limits the positive effects of credit registries’ information disclosure on credit allocation.Received April 18, 2016; editorial decision April 1, 2017 by Editor Philip Strahan.

State-of-the-art term structure models of commodity prices have serious difficulties extrapolating the prices of long-maturity futures contracts from short-dated contracts. This situation is problematic for valuing real commodity-linked assets. We estimate a nonlinear four-factor continuous time model of commodity price dynamics. The model nests many previous specifications. To estimate the model, we use crude oil prices and inventories. The inventory data and nonlinear price dynamics have a large impact on oil price forecasts. The additional factor in our model compared with current three-factor models has a significant impact on model-implied long-maturity futures prices.Received November 23, 2015; editorial decision September 12, 2016 by Editor Geert Bekaert.

We develop and estimate a tractable equilibrium term structure model populated with rational but heterogeneously informed traders that take on speculative positions to exploit what they perceive to be inaccurate market expectations about future bond prices. The speculative motive is an important driver of trading volume. Yield dynamics due to speculation are (1) statistically distinct from classical term structure components due to risk premiums and expectations about future short rates and are orthogonal to public information available to traders in real time and (2) quantitatively important, accounting for a substantial fraction of the variation of long maturity U.S. bond yields. Received May 12, 2014; editorial decision May 10, 2016 by Editor Pietro Veronesi.

We study how institutions influence start-up characteristics of firms and how these characteristics predict entrants’ growth trajectories over the early firm life cycle. Using census data from India, we find that greater financial development is associated with higher entry rates and smaller-sized entrants. Following entry, however, large and small entrants grow at the same rates across states with different institutions or industries with differing reliance on external finance. The impact of access to finance is greater on start-up size and entry rates than on the subsequent growth of firms during the early life cycle.Received April 30, 2015; editorial decision August 5, 2016 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

We study how product market competition affects firms’ ownership structures using a large sample of closely held firms in eighteen European countries. We show that firms operating in more competitive environments have lower inside ownership and that the stakes of their outside shareholders are more dispersed. These results are explained by competition increasing the need to raise external equity and reducing private control benefits. Our findings suggest that, by changing corporate ownership structure, competition mitigates incentive misalignment among shareholders, leading to better firm performance and gains in economic efficiency.

The disposition effect, i.e., the tendency to sell winning stocks too early and losing stocks too late is one of the most frequently observed and discussed biases of financial investors. We investigate in a laboratory experiment whether the option of automatic selling devices causally reduces investors’ disposition effect. Our investors can actively buy and sell assets, and, in the treatment group, additionally use stop-loss and take-gain options to automatically sell assets. Investors who had access to the automatic selling devices had significantly smaller disposition effects. The reduction was driven by a significant increase in realized losses. The proportion of winners realized was similar in both treatments. Additionally, our setup provides new evidence on which reference prices investors relate to when choosing limits for automatic sales.

We present an environment in which long-term investors sometimes choose to restrict how much fundamental information they receive about the value of their investment to preserve its liquidity in secondary markets. When and only when there is a risk that secondary markets may be shallow, more information can reduce the expected payoff of agents who need to cash out early. Even given direct and costless control over information design, stakeholders choose to incentivize managers to withhold interim information. In such an environment, imposing transparency can lower investment and welfare. Received October 17, 2014; editorial decision January 21, 2017 by Editor Itay Goldstein.

Firms move between growth and value because of changes in either size or book value of equity. The value premium is specific to variation in book-to-market that emanates from size changes. A factor based on this variation earns the entire value premium; one based on the remaining variation earns no premium. Hence, not all high book-to-market firms earn the value premium, and some low book-to-market firms earn value-like returns. Many models price portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market. None distinguish firms that earn the value premium from those that have a high book-to-market but do not earn the premium. Received July 22, 2015; editorial decision June 29, 2017 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.