Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We relate the risk characteristics of currencies to measures of physical, cultural, and institutional distance. Currencies of countries which are more distant from other countries are more exposed to systematic currency risk. This is due to a gravity effect in the factor structure of exchange rates: When a currency appreciates against a basket of other currencies, its bilateral exchange rate appreciates more against currencies of distant countries. As a result, currencies of peripheral countries are more exposed to systematic variation than currencies of central countries. Trade network centrality best predicts a currency’s average exposure to systematic risk.

Abstract We propose and implement a procedure to dynamically hedge climate change risk. We extract innovations from climate news series that we construct through textual analysis of newspapers. We then use a mimicking portfolio approach to build climate change hedge portfolios. We discipline the exercise by using third-party ESG scores of firms to model their climate risk exposures. We show that this approach yields parsimonious and industry-balanced portfolios that perform well in hedging innovations in climate news both in sample and out of sample. We discuss multiple directions for future research on financial approaches to managing climate risk.

Abstract We study how private equity buyouts create value in higher education, a sector with opaque product quality and intense government subsidy. With novel data on 88 private equity deals involving 994 schools, we show that buyouts lead to higher tuition and per-student debt. Exploiting loan limit increases, we find that private equity-owned schools better capture government aid. After buyouts, we observe lower education inputs, graduation rates, loan repayment rates, and earnings among graduates. Neither school selection nor student body changes fully explain the results. The results indicate that in a subsidized industry, maximizing value may not improve consumer outcomes. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract Using data from a major online peer-to-peer lending platform, we document that, due to time pressure, investors appear to focus on interest rates and only partially account for credit ratings in their decisions. The effect is stronger for mobile-based investors than for PC-based ones. Our evidence suggests that this variation is caused by the difference in information content on the interfaces rather than differences in the devices’ physical attributes per se. Investors improve their decisions by slowing down and paying more attention to credit ratings after experiencing a loan default firsthand, but not after observing others experiencing defaults.

Abstract We find that the degree and dynamics of sovereign bond market integration across 21 developed and 18 emerging countries is significantly heterogeneous. We show that better spanning can significantly enhance market integration through dissipating local risk premiums. Integration of the sovereign bond markets increases by about 10% on average, when a country moves from the 25th to the 75th percentile as a result of higher political stability and credit quality, lower inflation and inflation risk, and lower illiquidity. The 10% increase in integration leads to, on average, a decrease in the sovereign cost of funding of about 1% per annum. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

[We use unique administrative data and a quasi-field experiment of exogenous allocation in Sweden to estimate medium-and longer-run effects of peoples’exposure to financially literate neighbors on their financial behavior. We contribute evidence of (1) a causal impact of exposure and of a social multiplier of financial knowledge and (2) unfavorable distributional aspects of externalities. Exposure promotes saving in private retirement accounts and stockholding, especially when neighbors have economics or business education, but only for educated households and for substantial interaction possibilities. Findings point to a transfer of knowledge rather than mere imitation or effects through labor, education, or mobility channels.]

Abstract IPO firms’ rivals tend to experience performance declines following an IPO in the industry. Why? We estimate a dynamic structural oligopoly model to distinguish between alternative theories that can explain an industry’s evolution post-IPO. We find that most changes in rivals’ performance are due to industry trends that also drive IPOs. However, we also find some “competitive” IPOs where the IPO enhances the IPO firm’s performance at the expense of competitors. These findings help reconcile prior evidence of average performance reductions of both IPO firms and their rivals with well-known cases in which firms have benefited from going public. (JEL G30, G32) Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract Trade credit can serve as a collusion mechanism for competing supply chains to increase producer surplus in medium concentrated industries. We analyze theoretically how this form of financing influences retailers’ behavior in the product market, study incentives to deviate, and show evidence consistent with the model’s predictions. Trade credit use is inversely U shaped in industry concentration, and this pattern is more pronounced in industries more prone to collusion and when incentives to deviate are smaller.

Abstract We find that people revise their beliefs about climate change upward when experiencing warmer than usual temperatures in their area. Using international data, we show that attention to climate change, as proxied by Google search volume, increases when the local temperature is abnormally high. In financial markets, stocks of carbon-intensive firms underperform firms with low carbon emissions in abnormally warm weather. Retail investors (not institutional investors) sell carbon-intensive firms in such weather, and return patterns are unlikely to be driven by changes in fundamentals. Our study sheds light on peoples’ collective beliefs and actions about global warming.

Abstract Stock prices occasionally move in response to unverified rumors. I propose a cheap talk model in which a rumormonger’s incentives to tell the truth depend on the interaction between her investment horizon and the information acquisition decisions of message-receiving investors. The model’s key prediction is that short investment horizons can facilitate credible information sharing between investors, thereby accelerating the information capitalization into market prices. Analyzing a data set of takeover rumors covered by U.S. newspapers, I find suggestive evidence in support of this prediction. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.